It Happens To Us All; What to do?

[Scott Olson]

My rules of the bust have come in handy for me!

- If the cumulus congestus builds during peak heating only to quickly dissipate as the ground starts cooling consider that the storms may very well not intiate and that standing around for 4 hours waiting for the LLJ to crank up is likely going to FAIL.

- Be VERY wary of chases that involve strong/extreme instability and strong shear if the upper support is weak to non-existant. Without a direct shortwave the cap rarely goes.

- TEMPORARY RULE: Be wary of 2010! The upper pattern and GoM return has yet to prove itself.

- Speaking directly to 4/05, when I checked it the night before not a single SREF member wanted to intiate convection in that area until well after dark. Now granted, there were storms that intiated but stuff didn't really get truly together until 0140z or so at which point the SBCINH was huge and MLCINH was -75/-100 j/kg.

- So what was the advice in the last one, Scott? Well! It's all about probability. Look at all the different models and assign each model a percantage based on the say you think it deserves. Then once you've looked at the GFS, NSSL WRF, WRF, RUC, SPC and SREF,
then you can let your imagination and mind piece it all together and then see how many of all those things are favorable for a chase. It's good to establish what your tolerance is for standing under blue skies.

It's demoralizing I know, there were times many years ago where I would swear the whole way home. We all want to be triumphant in the hunt.

There is one thing I will say about those who have the tolerance to put up with chasing setups that have potential but are loaded with issues, these people have to put up with all of the disappointment. BUT - every once in a blue moon they will get rewarded big time. Chasing is like a big lottery, you can chase a dozen times and not see a damn thing and then on one single day you will twelve tornadoes.

Honestly, If I had the money and the best job on earth, I would chase every damn one of them.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Just bring the girlfriend and the 40 with next time

This is actually the approach that works best for me! The girlfriend part, anyway. I generally chase alone anymore. There are times I do meet up with a couple of the guys I've known for years to split gas on a marathon chase or something, but in general I get the "too many chefs in the kitchen" mindset and get crabby if I'm forced to compromise on a target, when to go home, what music to listen to... etc.

That said, my girlfriend Tia began chasing with me in 2007 and I've had an absolute blast when she comes along. I've heard a lot of disgruntled chasers wanting to leave the women out of it, but I've felt the opposite. 2009 was probably one of my most frustrating seasons for any number of reasons, but I managed to keep a level head more often than not because she was in the passenger seat. If we do see a storm, fantastic! Like chase partners celebrating after a success, I love sharing something I get so excited over with her and it's started rubbing off on her. If I painfully bust, that drive home is a lot easier to swallow when it's just us spending some quality time on the open road together. She doesn't get upset if we don't see anything, because just like me she's just happy to be out of the house and on the open road. Chase partners can have some awesome conversations on the way home from a chase, and that's just how it's been with her.

When I'm solo, I echo Weberpal's thoughts. I was upset that the last couple days did not pan out, but they were marginal odds to begin with. You really can't chase a day when you know the cap is stout and your odds are low, and then beat yourself up with anger that you didn't see a tornado. Rather than giving up chasing "slight risks", do as others say and evaluate -your- situation rather than relying on another forecasting agencies forecast to the general public. If you need to be picky, ask yourself that morning if you really think you stand a chance at seeing a beautiful supercell or tornado or whatever you're after that day. I took a risk the last two days and it didn't pan out. So as Scott said, I put the Cubs game on the radio, rolled down the windows and enjoyed a relaxing drive home with 70 degree air that I've missed all winter rushing through the car. I always find myself thinking of all the things, towns, places that I've seen in the last half of my life that I otherwise wouldn't have if I weren't out taking risks every day trying to see cool clouds.

 

[Ryan Pfeifer]

But what I really wanted this thread to be about is lists of things people do on the way back home, I love music but not 8 hrs on haha. Grabbing a few cigarillos may be an idea.

A few things I've heard of people doing to pass time driving alone would be gabbing on the cellphone and listening to podcasts. Maybe there's a good meteorology podcast out there. That gives me an idea, next time I'm driving back I'll should put on a few French lessons from the mp3 player.

Things to do driving back apply regardless of whether it's a bust or not though ya know. I drove home feeling like the 6th was a bust because I didn't even have a laptop so I had no idea what I had missed, but when I got home I found out I had experienced about as much as I could have. So I guess one tip would be make sure you actually busted before you decide you're driving home from a bust

 

[Shane Adams]

I have a short memory. As soon as the day is deemed a bust, I look to the next one. The longer I chase, the more I tend to look past the bad to the good. But because I'm a tornado chaser (not a storm chaser), I've been against stacked odds (compared to storm chasers) my whole career. So busting is something I expect more of, because my definition of success transcends "a pretty storm".

 

[Christopher E. Kincaid]

I guess I am going to say one thing that someone told me......

"It's the failures that keep me coming back"

Chasing is not about Tornado's.... Its about a Love of Weather...... The Tornado is just the ultimate Trophy.

My favorite post of this great thread. It's the love of weather that makes me chase, so busts don't bring me down as long as I get to take some nice weather pictures.

 

[Jason Persoff]

Okay--I gave me four phenotypes of busts earlier in part to be humorous. But I'll add a couple of real-life "how to recover from a bust" comments here.

Sometimes, it's almost fun to bust so badly that it becomes comical. But I agree, I've learned a helluva lot over the years from bust days because I force myself to think it through and question what I missed the first go around.

I actually spend a lot of my driving time listening to audiobooks. Sometimes it's literature I've meant to read but never had. Sometimes I'll listen to some really terrific astrophysics stuff (I really get into quantum mechanics, string theory, etc). Sometimes I'll pick up pop lit.

FWIW, Audible.Com is a great place to pick up downloadable audiobooks. I transfer them to my PocketPC and voila: good times.

The other thing I do is try to find photos that capture the spirit of being out on the Plains. While Shane Adams is a tornado guy, I find myself enjoying the whole damned spectrum. Some of my best lightning shots have occurred on bust days. Some of my favorite skyscape photos I've taken occured without even a storm in the shot.

We are very lucky to live in such an amazingly diverse and spectacular country. Watching the vegetation and landscape change, seeing the individual character of different places, and heck, even stopping by Car Henge from time to time is just part of the bust process.

Yeah--it's a frustrating hobby. But shouldn't it always be that way just a little? I mean, a feast is only special when when it's uncommon. For me it's that moment I look at my photos and see if I've captured the landscape and skyscape in a way that resonates.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I can relate to everybody on the bust. I will never forget when I drove all the way up to St. Cloud Minnessota and literally turned around to come home five minutes after I got there. I was sitting there looking at the back of some linear crap screaming away from me and thinking "mother of god what have I done". That one was brutal, but I was having a good season so it wasn't too bad. Distance wise that was my worst though.

I agree with Brendon that the longer the bust streak or the harder it's been makes it better when you do find success. I worked hard for two years before I got my first tornado and I'm sure it made it 100 times better than if I would have fallen ass backwards into one on my first chase. I took a beating last year and it is a lot tougher to keep getting out there and trying after you've been chasing for several years. When I was younger and newer to chasing it seemed a lot easier to get back on the horse for some reason. I've always used the competitive aspect of chasing to keep me going when times get rough. I am extremely competitive and I want to get on the best storm and get the best video every time I go out. I feel like I'm going to miss out on something if I stay home and somebody else will get it. That keeps me going. Not the idea of wow I'd like to see a tornado today. Being naturally competitive and never being satisfied (I think those two go hand in hand) is honestly the only thing that keeps me chasing hard. That is just what motivates me.

As for driving home, that is terrible and I haven't found a way to fix that lol. IMO the drive to your target on a big day is probably the funnest part about chasing. I am forecasting in the car and day dreaming about how awesome the storms are going to be and how I'm going to get amazing video of a strong tornado. The anticipation of a chase is definitely one of the things I like most about it. Honestly it's probably my favorite part of chasing. It's amazing that the drive to your target is great fun and goes by quickly and the drive home is just god awful.
We listen to XM radio in the car and that really helps to pass the time by on the drive home. I despise XM so I've been reluctant to reactivate my radio this year, but I know I'll do it before my first long distance chase.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

As for driving home, that is terrible and I haven't found a way to fix that lol. IMO the drive to your target on a big day is probably the funnest part about chasing. I am forecasting in the car and day dreaming about how awesome the storms are going to be and how I'm going to get amazing video of a strong tornado. The anticipation of a chase is definitely one of the things I like most about it. Honestly it's probably my favorite part of chasing. It's amazing that the drive to your target is great fun and goes by quickly and the drive home is just god awful.

Wow agreed 100%, I would like to say that the funnest part of my chases used to be seeing a tornado but the last handfull of chases the funnest part is idealizing the non existent storms lol and getting the adrenaline going. And telling myself things like "golly there is 15 minutes of daylight left, you can do it!"

but when all my idealization comes to realization, at dusk/250 mi. from home, its a different story. Then I go home and talk about it on ST

 

[Terry Tyler]

Its best not to dwell on your loss or think about it. Its all part of the game. You win some and you lose some. Sitting in the hot sun with Memphis, TN traffic and nothing to show for it is pretty frusterating but you cant dwell on it.

I drove halfway to AR a few days ago when storms started initiating in a Severe Watch. When I saw they were going linear I cut my losses and turned around after 2 hours on the road. Chasing storms is stressful alot of times, but it is what it is. If you cant handle the losses then you cant handle the activity itself. 7 out of 10 times for me usually results in some form of bust or poor decision, but the other 3 times make it worth coming back to.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

The only way to avoid a bust is to not chase. Otherwise, if you chase enough you are going to bust. Just as in baseball, no one is THAT good and everyone busts. My best advice for someone not wanting to bust is to simply don't head out, because no matter how good a day looks, you are always risking a bust when you head out.

Here's a link to a blog post I wrote about this very subject: http://www.supercellhunting.com/?p=463

 

[Nathan Withrow]

April 6, 2010, A storm chaser from SW Missouri and I went storm chasing in a target area of SC Kansas, and Western parts of SE Kansas. I thought a nice place to meet up would be in Coffeyville, KS at the new Wal-mart in the parking lot. I was working on some of my equipment, and looking at road maps. I usually chase solo, and so this would be the first time in my life that I had another chaser that wanted to go along with me. We both took our own cars, and looked at the SPC outlooks, and radar. I already had an idea to where a good target area might be, and that was near the Sedan, KS area and North into Greenwood County, KS. We finally decided to head to Sedan Kansas in the early afternoon, and notice towers starting to build up to the NW. But the storms were pretty far away near Wichita, KS and when we saw that the storms were not isolated, but a mess, and also that they were moving to the NE at 55 MPH we turned around and went South. For the rest of the afternoon it was driving around under a blue sky, and it pretty much was a blue sky bust for us.

The cap was too strong to let any storms fire along the dryline until the cold front took over and later storms finally did fire. So we ended up in SE Kansas with an amazing lightning show to go home with. So what could of been an all out bust wasn't anymore, and I know I have chased solo and have busts many times, and it really sucks. But to chase with another chaser and fail is a sick feeling because in a way you want them to see something, and not to go home with nothing. But when your luck turns around like it did for me and him On April 6, 2010, it is all worth it. Also if we did not even get a storm that night, it would be worth it because we both had a good time talking about what else storm chasing before the chase.

So I really consider a bust as seeing nothing. If I can get a good storm out of the deal I am pretty happy!

I enjoyed reading all of these replies to this thread on here about storm chasing and busting.

 

[Bill Tabor]

It depends on your definition of 'Bust'. For some a bust is no storm, or no severe storm, or no tornado. I usually base my concept of 'bust' on no severe storm. No doubt busting sucks. I've been lucky however and in 17 years of chasing I can only think of about 2 or 3 'Blue Sky / Blue Bird' Busts - those are the ones you are totally screwed on. One year I was with a team and their forecasters totally busted in the blue sky. However I could see giant supercells on the horizon. I quickly broke from the group and went to 'chase speed'. I caught the supercells right at sunset / dusk some were 60,000+ feet. I missed the 1/4 to 1/2 mile wide tornado. I was disappointed but at least I caught 3 enormous incredible looking supercells. One of those produced the Almena KS, tornado. That was in '99: http://www.chaseday.com/tornado-almena.htm .

How do I handle busting? I learned to forecast, and then I learned to forecast even better. I haven't had a complete bust in many years that I can recall. The better you get at forecasting and understanding what you are dealing with the more protected you are. However the downside is you might pass on some marginal situations that do produce. You do save an enormous amount of time, anguish and money though. Take for example this last month or so. The other day the dryline never went. Many sat out there but I knew the cap was very strong and there was no strong dynamic force to cause a storm. Result was no storms. I stayed home they busted. That has happened a few times so far this season. However on one occasion back in March I did predict a supercell with possible associated weak tornado to appear near 7pm near Abilene. The forecast was on my threshold of going. I chose not to. What happened. The supercell formed exactly where I predicted and it appears it did produce a weak tornado which I missed.

 

[JF Massicotte]

If 'bust days' didn't exist and I got a tornado everytime I went out i would stop chasing as one thing thats I like the most in this hobby is the challenge it represents to me everytime I'm out.

Playing football and always winning 30-0 would be boring, so would chasing be. Actually losing a football game can be fun just because you played the game, so is busting. It still is fun to me, and many good things happened to me on bust days!

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Bust in Fishing

I really liked the parallel that earlier posts drew between fishing and busting on a storm chase. Although I have yet to go on a storm chase, I can relate very well to getting "skunked" on a fishing trip!

In fishing, you have to take the weather into consideration when planning a fishing trip. You need warm south-southwest winds for 2-3 days to warm up the waters. You need to have the warm weather to occur on a weekend too! Then if a cold front or a thunderstorm line comes in, your fishing success will peak like crazy. Fish can sense the weather changes and go on a feeding frenzy. Once the cold front or storm passes thru, the fish goes into hiding until the next warm weather spell. Your success in fishing depends on your interpretation of the conditions and how you adapt to it.

I remember once on a chilly day in March, I went fishing not because the weather was warm. It was due to the moon conditions. It was cold, cloudy, not exactly prime time for fishing. But I was in the right place and caught a 15 inch bass, nearly a three pounder!!

Sorry if I gotten off topic here. I wanted to say that going "Bust" on a storm chase is pretty much like catching no fish. You do get to enjoy the scenery and the outdoors. And I found fishing to be a very relaxing time spent away from my work and worries. And yes you get to meet some really nice folks too!!

 

[David Douglas]

I think that there are technical busts and non-technical busts.

A technical bust is when you mess up your own forecast. i.e. you do all of your research and you pinpoint an area that you think is prime and you missed some important data and storms/tornadoes happened somewhere else and you can't recover and get to them. In this case YOU made the mistake.

A non-technical bust is when all of the conditions are prime and nothing happens. You were in the right place at the right time and the cap held everything off (for example). In this case, it's just weather

I'll be pissed at myself for a technical bust as I made a mistake, but I won't be upset for a non-technical bust.

Then there are the marginal days. If you go out just for the hell of it (like this spring, for example) just to see some storms or structure, this is not a bust because your expectations are set correctly.