It Happens To Us All; What to do?

[Brendon Lindsey]

Ok, well I have come to the conclusion that everyone busts. Personally I really dont drive more than like 4-5 hours in any direction to get to my target. Busting is the hardest when you are chasing solo, that is unless you have obligations with a reporter or something. All I can ever do on my 4-5 hour track back home after a bust is think about the time and money I wasted, and the next 4 hours of mindless driving.

Like after yesterday's bust, this morning I feel like I am done with chasing slight risks, and chasing the early season period. Too much wasted time and resources. But I know, a week from now its going to setup again for a slight risk and I will be scrounging quarters and dollars haha.

So basically what do you other chasers do on the trip back from a bust so ur not on the verge of .... something bad? The only things I think of is, "man there is a 40 at my home, and my GF is there."

But with 3 busts in a row and a horrid 2009. There is not much optimism for my rides home, all I feel is that urge to give up, but I am addicted to weather, so I guess I cant give up even though I want to.

I am very very interested in what other chasers do to handle their emotions after a bust?


"We enjoy warmth because we have been cold. We appreciate light because we have been in darkness. By the same token, we can experience joy because we have known sadness"

I am curious to see my "joy" return this season when I see a tornado, because if the amount of joy is directly correlated to how sad you have been from busts, it should be the best day of my life haha.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

I don't know what it's like to chase alone since I chase with other people. But I usually don't have to big of a problem with busts. I'm spending an easy-going day with my friends, sampling food from restaurants around 3 hours from home. I try not to think about the weather that day.

This year has had a frustrating start. It's hard to believe it's almost the middle of April and I haven't seen a supercell. Also, last night was the first thunderstorm of the season that I was awake for. But anyway, I'm starting to agree with people that said this was going to be a late season.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Ok, well I have come to the conclusion that everyone busts. Personally I really dont drive more than like 4-5 hours in any direction to get to my target. Busting is the hardest when you are chasing solo, that is unless you have obligations with a reporter or something. All I can ever do on my 4-5 hour track back home after a bust is think about the time and money I wasted, and the next 4 hours of mindless driving.

Like after yesterday's bust, this morning I feel like I am done with chasing slight risks, and chasing the early season period. Too much wasted time and resources. But I know, a week from now its going to setup again for a slight risk and I will be scrounging quarters and dollars haha.

So basically what do you other chasers do on the trip back from a bust so ur not on the verge of .... something bad? The only things I think of is, "man there is a 40 at my home, and my GF is there."

But with 3 busts in a row and a horrid 2009. There is not much optimism for my rides home, all I feel is that urge to give up, but I am addicted to weather, so I guess I cant give up even though I want to.

I am very very interested in what other chasers do to handle their emotions after a bust?


"We enjoy warmth because we have been cold. We appreciate light because we have been in darkness. By the same token, we can experience joy because we have known sadness"

I am curious to see my "joy" return this season when I see a tornado, because if the amount of joy is directly correlated to how sad you have been from busts, it should be the best day of my life haha.

Brendon, I think the best drug for bust delusion is to be in group with other friends. I'm kind of convinced about that. There's anything like steak and beer with friends to medicate. If you stay solo, it's more and more easy to keep on thinking about all your errors and so on.
As for slight risk question, I suggest you to not stop chasing slight risks, and chase only moderate risks or high risks. I can't count how many moderate risks I chased, sucked up. I think the best thing to do is to chase the setup you like and to not be forced to do 1000 km just because there are hordes of chasers doing it. I know it's difficult but we can do it.

 

[Keith Turner]

Brendon I don't know you but I definantly feel your pain. It seems like that long painful drive home happens at least once a season. It's hard driving home with nothing to show knowing you have a nice house and warm bed at home waiting for you. I also told myself yesterday on my way home that I wouldn't chase another slight risk for as long as I live. What helps me is knowing that there is always hope. Even in the darkest hour there is always light at the end of the tunnel. I know that even though yesterday sucked, I know that a high risk is on the horizon. A bust is hard to swallow sometimes but I know there is going to be another day of successful chasing. Humans try so hard to predict the weather but when it all comes down to it God is the only one that knows whats really going to happen. Ya we can say conditions are favorable for storms but we can't say when where or why its going to happen. With that said, we are always going to have busts but ever now and then we get lucky and get it right. So hold fast and know that a good chase is just around the corner (hopefully!)

 

[Jason Persoff]

There are really four kinds of busts for me, and it depends on which one it is, tbqh.

1. Scrap Chasing: there may be some okay pop-up storms, and if I'm lucky an impulse or two along a dryline, BUT, the synoptic scale sucks. This sums up, quite eloquently I'll add, what I experienced in 2009 too. I took <10 photos and <30 seconds of video--none of it even up on my site. The busting was frustrating, but uniform throughout the chasing community. This leaves me feeling okay because it just wasn't going to happen. Cap wins, GOM is closed for business, and the ridge is hanging out just 1 deg longitutide south of the Arctic Circle...it's the way it goes.

2. Busting in Target #1 While Storms Fire in Target #2. Hate this: I have two spots of interest, but, unless I'm really lucky, I won't be able to chase both spots at the same time. This is leads to constant and unequivocal stress. Stay with my target #1 or try to recover on target #2. I've learned that, over the years, I'm far more likely to stay with a storm once one forms (even if another storm looks better), but I've also learned I'm not good at sitting on my original target watching a Cu field when CI has occurred elsewhere. Here I'll bang my head a few times but recognize I can't be two places at once and I'm doing well if my initial target even gives me something photogenic.

3. Fantastic Forecast, But Wrong. Nothing worse than getting a "FAIL" when every fiber of your soul makes an undeniably accurate forecast and being wrong. You KNOW the atmosphere is supposed to follow the laws of thermodynamics. You know that the impulse you're monitoring coming out of the Rockies is right overhead and the daytime temp of 91 is 1 degree better than the forecast convective temp. And the dryline's right over THERE for goodness sakes. And then...and then you peruse a satellite image and see that, in fact, someplace you had no idea was going to go convective goes boom and nature doesn't care about your forecast. That, my friend, sounds like what has been going on this past week. The more unexpected that other convective outburst is, the more you look at your original forecast and think: why oh why did that happen? And then it's obvious: you missed the outflow boundary from last night; a cow farted harder 200miles south of where you were; and that SPC forecast page changed from SLGHT to HIGH in an area the size of a pancake and you didn't keep up with that during the day because you were busy validating your own forecast. To help ease the defeat, I'll listen to an audiobook, and find some redeeming photo I can take of something (wildlife, flowers, a sunset, and in '05--rainbows (it was a colorful year)).

4. Schadenfreude. This is the pinnacle of bust days and is inconsolable. This is the high risk or mod risk day where everyone, everyone sees something immensely beautiful or "unmissable". And you, you get the RFD for hours on end. Gray and formless blobs of nothing for you. Reports of 15 tornadoes on the ground at the same time just 10 miles up the road from your location, and you're stuck in traffic. Or, my favorite, you are fixing your flat tire in 80mph outflow winds that are closer to arctic conditions due to the temperature, and you're cold and grouchy. This is the kind of event that just haunts you. Not much to do, I'm afraid, but get out there and get the tornado on your next chase vacation.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

When I'm not driving for the tour group, I usually chase alone. Driving back from busts aren't that bad in my opinion, as they are part of the game - like striking out in baseball. The best hitters in baseball strike out just over 10% of the time, and I would expect with many, if not most chasers, bust at least that much. I use that analogy because even when they strike out, they know they'll have many more at bats and they don't dwell on it; again, it's part of the game. I usually just listen to music, or a baseball game if I can get one on the radio, and enjoy the fact that I was out there enjoying the countryside and enjoying the thrill of the hunt, even if they prey never came around.

If you want to decrease your chances of a bust, don't chase on marginal days, such as yesterday. However, you have to be willing to miss an occasional big storm on a marginal day if you only chase for-sure severe weather days. The only days I really get down about is when I'm out chasing and miss a major event - such as May 4, 2003 when I was stuck between 2 targets and saw no tornadoes that day. If you really get that depressed about busts and the money becomes worrisome, maybe you should think twice about chasing because no matter what, busts are inevitable.

I'm not sure why you state "I might be done chasing slight risks". IMO slight risks are much easier to chase than many high risk days. The risk level is directly related to the potential spatial distribution of storms, and not necessarily the severity of them. Chances are on a slight risk day you're going to have one or two sweet storms, whereas on a high risk day you might have a large area of storms competing with each other, fast storm motions, and an overall less chaseable situation. Trust your own forecast, not whether its a slight, moderate, or high risk.

Also, quite often some of the higher risk days may also be the days with higher bust potential. You may have 5000+ cape and 60kts of deep layer shear with a moderate or high risk, but if the cap holds, you'll have nothing; a la June 18, 2009 - a MDT risk with 15% blue hatch tornado risk in Iowa and no storms happened.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Like it or not busting is part of chasing. You might as well stop chasing MDT and HIGH risks too because some of MY worst busts have come on those days. The outlook has nothing to do with it. I say it all the time, the best forecast is just an educated guess and if you think driving 4hrs home is bad try driving out to Nebraska for a HIGH risk bust and then drive 10hrs home...that was me on 6-5-08.

The best way to cope with a bust is to chase MORE IMO. I busted on Monday too but I had great chases on Sunday and Tuesday so Monday is nothing but a mere blip in my memory. Plus I was with chasers I call friends and even though we were busting we still had a good time just hanging out and BSing.

It does suck to invest time and money, but IMO time and money is the small picture, maybe thats a foolish way to look at it but thats just me.

 

[Seth Price]

Busted chases and philosophy

Once again, I compare chasing to fishing- if you always caught your limit, it wouldn't be any fun. Also, who you chase with can make or break a chase just like who you fish with can make or break a fishing trip.

You have to enjoy storm chasing for what it really is- an opportunity to learn and to see places that many do not bother to see. Your forecast is really just a measure of yourself and the time you invested in it, and as long as you gave it your best effort, a busted chase is just something to budget for.

I heard a lecture one time that might be of some use to you guys on those busted days where storms fired at Choice #2 instead of Choice #1. Pretend for a moment you are driving and you come to a fork in the road. One road says "Bridge Out". Naturally, you choose the other road. On the way down this road, you are randomly struck by lightning. It might be easy to say "I should have taken the other road!", but does that make sense? Can you actually hold yourself accountable for what you did not know, and could not have known? Of course not!

I try to stop and take photos on a busted day. I also play in the county hunters net on 20M and 40M HF (amateur radio) as I go through less-frequented counties. It is only the "walk of shame" home if you choose to make it such.

 

[Tony Laubach]

You may have 5000+ cape and 60kts of deep layer shear with a moderate or high risk, but if the cap holds, you'll have nothing; a la June 18, 2009 - a MDT risk with 15% blue hatch tornado risk in Iowa and no storms happened.

Rule #1, stop chasing Iowa! That'll cut down on your bust ratio in itself.. hehe

I, like Jason, have a variety of bust conditions, and they vary per chase. I typically don't call a chase a bust if I see a storm worth some form of video/photo, unless of course I miss 18 tornadoes and suddenly my quarter-size hailstorm isn't all that exciting.

I also add a bust for me is NOT going out and missing a big event. This is rare, but March 28, 2007 is a huge bust for me cause I missed a huge event within a few hours of home. The bust wasn't completely under my control as I was obligated to stay home, but none-the-less, of all my busts as a result of chasing, this non-chase bust hurt the most.

I don't typically have a lot of busts in a year as it takes a no-storm chase to really do that as I am easily satisfied with other aspects of chasing. In my logs, I have a couple busts recorded only cause the weather didn't cooperate even as the trip itself was worth every penny.

But yeah, hard to make those drives back often times, but being with good company will usually rid of a lot of the agony. Then again, sometimes the quiet drive home with your music with the stars above and NOT having to deal with web updates, video, photos, is nice, too..

Yeah, I guess its not really a bust for me a lot of times even if the weather says so. I enjoy the road life, so for me, I am paying for a road trip.. the weather is usually just icing!

 

[Skip Talbot]

Chase more and bust more. The busts will start to grow on you.

The only busts that get me down are missed tornado busts. Jason's "Schadenfreude" busts. A cap bust is still a good time, either converging with some friends at the target, or just spending some introspective time alone listening to music and taking in the sights of the Great Plains. Experiencing the Plains, forms of weather other than supercells, and driving long distances are a huge part of chasing. If you can't appreciate these things I don't think you will be able to appreciate storm chasing in the long run.

Ruling out slight risks is also silliness. Three of the best tornado chase days last year had slight risk tornado probabilities: May 13 (Kirksville, MO), June 5 (La Grange, WY), and June 17 (Aurora, NE). June 18 had a moderate risk for tornadoes and busted completely.

 

[Dan Rupnow]

I relate it to the lottery, you can't win if you don't play. If you stay home, you KNOW you won't see tornadoes, so you have to give yourself that chance, win or lose.

Plus I love the midwest, and like Scott said, there is always something to see in the beautiful countryside of this part of the USA!

 

[Chad Cowan]

For me, it's all about managing expectations. I hit the road knowing damn well how small the odds are of actually seeing a tornado that day, even with an outbreak forecast.

Of course that is the goal every time I go out, but the longer I've chased, the more I've come to realize it's the little things that some chasers might take for granted that keep me coming back. The freedom on the open road in the middle of nowhere, not knowing where you'll end up, what you'll see or who you'll meet along the way, the thrill of the hunt, the enormous challenge of forecasting/intercepting/documenting something so incredibly rare that billions of people will go their whole lives without seeing.... you name it.

But then again, I might not be so bright eyed and bushy tailed after busting if my first chase day was May 24, 2008 in nrn OK. Talk about setting the bar a little too high

 

[Jason Boggs]

When I'm not driving for the tour group, I usually chase alone. Driving back from busts aren't that bad in my opinion, as they are part of the game - like striking out in baseball. The best hitters in baseball strike out just over 10% of the time, and I would expect with many, if not most chasers, bust at least that much. I use that analogy because even when they strike out, they know they'll have many more at bats and they don't dwell on it; again, it's part of the game. I usually just listen to music, or a baseball game if I can get one on the radio, and enjoy the fact that I was out there enjoying the countryside and enjoying the thrill of the hunt, even if they prey never came around.

If you want to decrease your chances of a bust, don't chase on marginal days, such as yesterday. However, you have to be willing to miss an occasional big storm on a marginal day if you only chase for-sure severe weather days. The only days I really get down about is when I'm out chasing and miss a major event - such as May 4, 2003 when I was stuck between 2 targets and saw no tornadoes that day. If you really get that depressed about busts and the money becomes worrisome, maybe you should think twice about chasing because no matter what, busts are inevitable.

I'm not sure why you state "I might be done chasing slight risks". IMO slight risks are much easier to chase than many high risk days. The risk level is directly related to the potential spatial distribution of storms, and not necessarily the severity of them. Chances are on a slight risk day you're going to have one or two sweet storms, whereas on a high risk day you might have a large area of storms competing with each other, fast storm motions, and an overall less chaseable situation. Trust your own forecast, not whether its a slight, moderate, or high risk.

Also, quite often some of the higher risk days may also be the days with higher bust potential. You may have 5000+ cape and 60kts of deep layer shear with a moderate or high risk, but if the cap holds, you'll have nothing; a la June 18, 2009 - a MDT risk with 15% blue hatch tornado risk in Iowa and no storms happened.

I was going to respond with my own thoughts, but Scott summed it up very well here. I agree with everything he said.

 

[jamesmseitz]

I guess I am going to say one thing that someone told me......

"It's the failures that keep me coming back"

Chasing is not about Tornado's.... Its about a Love of Weather...... The Tornado is just the ultimate Trophy.

 

[Mike Bennett]

My fishing partner and I was trying to decide whether or not to go fishing. I was reluctant because it was very windy and I thought we might not catch anything because of the wind. He said, "We sure won't catch anything if we don't go"........ I live by that now.