evan anderson
EF0
Perhaps this will fizzle given the increasing shear -- but after Saturday perhaps certain organizational elements will align?
Invest 98L
- Thread starter evan anderson
- Start date
David Hoadley
Stormtrack founder
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2006
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- 120
After re-reading the March 2012 Stormtrack update “experienced chasers taking away information…but not giving back,” I will respond to the “Invest 98L” comment about Saturday (almost a Target Area comment) --especially now that SPC is interested. Normally reluctant to comment when I don’t use meteorology jargon, I will --nonetheless-- make an observation from my “experience.”
I am skeptical about any short wave, evolving from a “closed low” into a flatter pattern, which is a system that wants to weaken, not strengthen. Secondly, this develops rather rapidly from the southwest, which doesn’t give much time for a deep surface low to form. Since I don’t see strong backing winds (GFS surface) in either the wind field or dewpoint pattern, it looks like a broken line squall on Saturday with initially discrete cells, quickly merging. Also, it is possible that the warm front may be occluding, which could mean a cloudier system with imbedded storms, looking for sun-breaks. All of this suggests marginal photo ops. Of course it is still days away, but a necessary early comment for we east-and-west coast chasers who need to plan ahead.
I rarely do the fall, but have had a few successes, so will continue watching closely --especially if the following trough is not as appealing during this seasonal *short season*.
- - - Dave Hoadley
I am skeptical about any short wave, evolving from a “closed low” into a flatter pattern, which is a system that wants to weaken, not strengthen. Secondly, this develops rather rapidly from the southwest, which doesn’t give much time for a deep surface low to form. Since I don’t see strong backing winds (GFS surface) in either the wind field or dewpoint pattern, it looks like a broken line squall on Saturday with initially discrete cells, quickly merging. Also, it is possible that the warm front may be occluding, which could mean a cloudier system with imbedded storms, looking for sun-breaks. All of this suggests marginal photo ops. Of course it is still days away, but a necessary early comment for we east-and-west coast chasers who need to plan ahead.
I rarely do the fall, but have had a few successes, so will continue watching closely --especially if the following trough is not as appealing during this seasonal *short season*.
- - - Dave Hoadley
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evan anderson
EF0
Moderator(s), can this be updated to Hurricane Rafael?
However, I don't think I'll be making the trip to Bermuda for the potential TS conditions.
However, I don't think I'll be making the trip to Bermuda for the potential TS conditions.
