Interesting prediction from Accu-wx

[ahaberlie]

I'm no AW defender but don't twist their words They said "as hard again" as last year. I have a hard time agreeing with your statement that outbreaks like 2011's killers have occurred every year these past ten.

I completely agree that a 359 three day outbreak tornado total doesn't seem too likely--I think we had a misunderstanding. Looks to me like there have been days with 5+ tornado reports in Alabama at least once every year in the past decade, which seems like an abnormal (outbreakish) day to me.
I thought 5-10 was the minimum threshold for "outbreak" status.

 

[Andy Jackson]

Here's the CPC three month assesment. EC for the alley seems like a safe bet this early out.

 

[Jeff House]

Tough assignment to balance public awareness but not incite panic. Active storm track through the mid-South in a La Nina year should promote more than average severe weather in the South. I'd keep it broad at Severe instead of TOR, but the fcst is not crazy. Public in the South needs to stay alert again, but AccuWx rightly tries to avoid terrifying the public about another Apr 27. With all this talk about the South, the Plains could be active too even if DL displaces east several times. Take care.

 

[William Monfredo]

Here's the CPC three month assesment. EC for the alley seems like a safe bet this early out.

It's important to note that while precipitation is usually prerequisite for most tornado production, the frequency and magnitude of severe weather (including tornadoes) often bears little association with precipitation totals, the likes of which are predicted in the preceding map for 3-months: above, normal, below.

 

[Andy Jackson]

Here's the CPC three month assesment. EC for the alley seems like a safe bet this early out.

It's important to note that while precipitation is usually prerequisite for most tornado production, the frequency and magnitude of severe weather (including tornadoes) often bears little association with precipitation totals, the likes of which are predicted in the preceding map for 3-months: above, normal, below.

First of all the preceding map uses A, B or EC (equal chance). There is no use of N for this run.
But yes, it's not a severe/tornado forecast tool. I just know that the people who spent time calculating this data are well educated meteorologists (correct me if I'm wrong). Usually in my mind, the maps come in handy knowing the climatology (spring in this case = tornado season). With that said, I've seen the maps corrected as time progresses to produce a completely different probability graphic.

Now, to clarify why I posted this graphic to the thread was just to try to relate what one camp was "seeing" as opposed to the ones who had it figured out, maybe by using a precip map I failed I would love to sit and drink coffee and talk about severe weather related things, until then I can only talk to a computer screen.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Keep in mind, that with new technology and more people - more chasers etc. The same tornado reports are duplicated many times over than in the past.

I cringe everytime I see a graph or hear someone talk about how more numerous weather events are becoming....

 

[Jake Orosi]

I love this line: "It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year.

Yeah...

 

[Elaine Spencer]

"It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year"

Well, they HAVEN'T been hit "as hard" to date. The most violent storms from this outbreak were considerably farther north in IN and KY. I know there were communities in AL and perhaps elsewhere that got hit on 4/27 that also got hit again Friday, but were those tornadoes anywhere near as violent as those on 4/27? I didn't think so. Also, notice the death toll so far is "only" 38 (last I looked) as opposed to 300+ from the 4/27 outbreak.

 

[rdale]

They also said this last outbreak would compare to '74...

Oops.

 

[hazelmaryjackson]

The reason why housebuilders do not build storm proof homes in "Dixie Alley" and insurers do not require them to, is because the statistical chances of anyone getting killed by a tornado and their house getting destroyed, are vanishingly small. A double hit is even less likely. There is much more chance of being caught in an earthquake in California or a hurricane in Florida, hence the stricter building codes there. I don't recall the building codes for Kansas off hand, does anyone else?