Interesting disturbance off Africa

[Warren Faidley]

Just noticed on the latest sat. picture (8-6-2008 @ 12:15 UTC) of a pretty nice disturbance coming off the Africa coast in a favorable latitude. Its that time of year when things should get interesting soon.

Warren

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Yea, I see it too.

Looks healthy so far, getting into the interesting part of the season.

Good image here:

http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/clouds-world-big.html

 

[Jim Leonard]

We're probably 10 days to two weeks from the time the atlantic basin begins to get active again. When you see the central and east pacific flareup with convection along the ITCZ like there is occuring now. During the next week or so there should be at least a couple of hurricanes developing in the eastern pacific. Usually this time of year you will see the atlantic basin ITCZ begin to flareup in about a week and a half after the east pacific does its thing.

 

[Jim Leonard]

If the models are correct we are probably a little less than a week away from the beginning of an active period in the atlantic basin tropics. The west African to mid-atlantic monsoon is beginning to become more active. There is a circulation at mid-levels just off the African coast down around 10N this is likely the system the latest gfs and other model runs are showing. We'll have to see if there is consistancey in the later model runs. Last year the models did excellent well before hurricane Dean made its appearence.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

As an aside - the GFS which has performed well this year, shows two "CV" systems forming ...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Select GFS model ...

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

The 180 HR GFS has Hurricane near San Juan PR.

The extend GFS 240-288HR has Major Hurricane along the SE-US Florida- NC in the Aug 21-23 time frame. The Tropics looks like very active starting later this week.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Interesting, the latest GFS, BAMM, BAMD, GFDL and LBAR
(http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200892_model.html)
are showing a pretty narrow forecast path. Long way out, but I suspect
the "noise" level will start going up in FL by mid-week.

Jim, Richard....you may want to start bringing those lawn chairs inside.....lol.

Warren

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Whoa...

GFS seems to have really backed off the forestcast of these systems over the last few runs - time will tell ...

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like some dry air temporarily messed up I-92, which is why I think the models skipped a beat, but the latest TPC IR and WV sat. images look much better. .... As writing, just notice TPC but it back to high prob. of development and may schedule a data flight tomorrow. I really think it still needs to be watched carefully.

Warren

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I agree Warren - this devlopment requires close attention ..

As an aside - I read the blog by Dr Jeff Masters with interest - a good sumary of the next week or so...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1015&tstamp=200808

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Currently there is a trouch off the SE US ... This acts like a "condom" and should effectively "vaccinate" the eastern US / Florida from any threats east of us because of recurverature (storm moves W, NW, then NE and out to sea).

Look at 92L, it's already moving NW, and it's not even a depression yet!

The trough MIGHT break down and high-pressure may re-build westward from the tropical Atlantic ... The key thing here is the steering flow. I just do not see anything hitting FL / US East coast UNTIL we see a steering flow with a more easterly component to it.

Flow in FL right now is due West at most altitudes (trough)...

 

[Warren Faidley]

Going by the latest guidance, AL-92 "might" be a Cat 1 hurricane in 120 hours and be threatening the Cuba to Florida coastal areas in 150 to 165 hours. I guess a lot depends on where the main circulation forms, if it does. Regardless, none of the major models are curving it northward ATM. It will be very interesting to see how the intensity guidance handles it in 24 to 48 hours.

Using averages from the main models.

Warren

 

[BrandonWhittington]

I have been watching this feature for a while now and it appears that the cirrculation is starting to close and be underneath the deep convection. I would not be suprised to see this become a depression by the end of the day....

I agree Warren, this feature appears that it will stay on a w-nw track and not swing to the north....Peopl in Florida really need to keep an eye to it!!!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

This system looks like it is feeling the effects of drier air to its west. Convection dies off then flares back up. Not looking as good as it did yesterday.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The "Joker" system, as someone else called it, is looking really good this morning on IR, and is back up to "red-alert" status at the TPC. (I wonder if they have a flashing red light in the office like Star Trek?) My guess is that the discussion will soon turn to where it is going.

Warren