I would not dought it at all that is feature is already a Tropical Depression, Its looks very healthy now on the IR and Visible..... Florida!!!! All I can say,
Interesting disturbance off Africa
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
Sam Sagnella
EF5
I agree with Warren that 92L will likely become, if it isn't already, TD 6 at some point in the near future. While it's looking good right now, it may have a bit of tough road to walk over the next couple of days as it deals with slightly higher vertical shear, and, depending on the exact track, the interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. Thereafter, SSTs start to get a bit crazy (>30C), and the GFDL starts to strengthen 92L (Six/Fay) in earnest, bringing it to Category Two (CMC to Cat 4) status in the central/northern Bahamas.
As it stands now, 92L will likely continue W-WNW over the next few days across/and to the north of the big Islands of the nrn Caribbean, moving generally toward FL. Depending on both the strength of the system (CMC to 930mb!), and the rate at which the Bermuda High is able to build back west in the wake of the departing mid-level storm, Fay will likely swing to the N a la Floyd around Day 4/5. We'll see how it goes, but this storm should certainly be a news-maker as it stands currently.
As it stands now, 92L will likely continue W-WNW over the next few days across/and to the north of the big Islands of the nrn Caribbean, moving generally toward FL. Depending on both the strength of the system (CMC to 930mb!), and the rate at which the Bermuda High is able to build back west in the wake of the departing mid-level storm, Fay will likely swing to the N a la Floyd around Day 4/5. We'll see how it goes, but this storm should certainly be a news-maker as it stands currently.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Overall satellite presentation of this system points to it being close to, if not already a tropical depression. It already has a Central Dense Overcast!
It is moving due west ATTM, maybe slightly N of west. High pressure is clearly building in from the tropical Atlantic.
It will be interesting to see how this thing continues west and reaches the east-coast trough (if or not the trough goes up and over the building tropical high). If the trough does not turn away, and the system stays north of the influence of Cuba / Spanish Carribean area ... FL is in a lot of trouble as nothing will stop Fay from intensifying.
This can also go into the Gulf as well. I would not be suprised if this will not be TS Fay by 5 PM today ... Looks at the visible "floater" satellite image for 92 L (link below)...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
Overall satellite presentation of this system points to it being close to, if not already a tropical depression. It already has a Central Dense Overcast!
It is moving due west ATTM, maybe slightly N of west. High pressure is clearly building in from the tropical Atlantic.
It will be interesting to see how this thing continues west and reaches the east-coast trough (if or not the trough goes up and over the building tropical high). If the trough does not turn away, and the system stays north of the influence of Cuba / Spanish Carribean area ... FL is in a lot of trouble as nothing will stop Fay from intensifying.
This can also go into the Gulf as well. I would not be suprised if this will not be TS Fay by 5 PM today ... Looks at the visible "floater" satellite image for 92 L (link below)...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
David Wolfson
EF5
The current full-page vis zoom of 92L available from http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html shows the radial high-cloud banding structure that I've noticed is a very reliable indicator of rapid intensification. The pattern over the next few weeks seems to be a pretty dangerous one for the US east coast with above normal ocean temps and models promoting a string of similar developments along the same general track. IMO, FWIW.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Given the current VIS, IR, WV, Dvorak, etc., it's hard to believe this is not yet Tropical Storm Fay.
Warren
Warren
Marcus Opitz
EF2
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2005
- Messages
- 197
It looks like a classic TS or at least a TD to me, but I was'nt there so who knows. 
It seems like its been a while since the models have forecasted a storm heading through the Bahamas.
It seems like its been a while since the models have forecasted a storm heading through the Bahamas.
aaron.burkham
EF0
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents
This system looks alot better organized now, its got to be a TD at the least, the way its looking.
This system looks alot better organized now, its got to be a TD at the least, the way its looking.
Mike Davis
EF1
NHC post Proenza
Nothing bad to say about NHC, but has anyone noticed there seems to be a little more lag time in storm calling and predictions in the post Proenza era?
Wonder if anyone else has noticed.
Nothing bad to say about NHC, but has anyone noticed there seems to be a little more lag time in storm calling and predictions in the post Proenza era?
Wonder if anyone else has noticed.
rdale
EF5
Regardless of calling them while out to sea - still WAY overestimating windspeeds at landfall...
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Yea, there seems to be a rather sleepy alert mode to this system, considering it could be (according to the majority of early intensity models), a Cat 2 or higher storm in less than 120 hours. In my opinion, it has the "look" of a system that could rapidly intensify, including the large outflow area encircling the entire system. I'll let the experts chime in, but Florida could be under the gun of dangerous hurricane in only 3-4 days. The good news is that the bulk of models are now tuning it north and east away from Florida... although it appears the suspect area of circulation has shifted slightly west on the latest IR, so who knows!
Warren
Warren
Danny Neal
EF5
Why is this storm not TD status yet? I just genuinely don't understand. Visually I have seen worse in less. I guess when the hurricane hunters sampled this storm earlier today winds were not in excess of 30 mph? Honest question.
FWIW I found the Hurricane Hunters "plan of the day" which is easily accessible through the link provided here. The dropsonde here. (Forgive me I am new to the whole tropical weather aspect; I know the basics but am on square one when it comes to predicting/forecasting etc. So I do apologize if these sites are common knowledge lol)
I am very interested in this system since I have a bunch of family living in and from Puerto Rico.
FWIW I found the Hurricane Hunters "plan of the day" which is easily accessible through the link provided here. The dropsonde here. (Forgive me I am new to the whole tropical weather aspect; I know the basics but am on square one when it comes to predicting/forecasting etc. So I do apologize if these sites are common knowledge lol)
I am very interested in this system since I have a bunch of family living in and from Puerto Rico.
cedwards
EF5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica] Looking at only satellite pictures, you would say "what is the NHC thinking not naming this system yet", but if you look at radar out of Puerto Rico, it is a mess. On the last few frames, there appears to be a rotation center near 18.2N 65.2W. If it were up to me, looking at the radar, I would wait a few more scans to confirm that it is organizing.
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Danny Neal
EF5
TIST reporting station METAR shows a ESE wind at 27 with a gust of 35 as of 22:53 CDT
With TISX further south reporting S at 20 with San Juan reporting a W wind at 9 so it seems like it still a broad circulation and indeed sustained winds do not appear 30 mph near the center.
With TISX further south reporting S at 20 with San Juan reporting a W wind at 9 so it seems like it still a broad circulation and indeed sustained winds do not appear 30 mph near the center.
aaron.burkham
EF0
Well ive been fooled! I could have sworn this was at least a TD or TS but i guess its a very organized wave. I think this system is really gonna crank tomorrow so the next few days should be indeed very interesting.
