Interesting disturbance off Africa

The first thing I did this morning (2am) was look at the IR Sat and I was shocked as well to not have it listed as a storm or at least a depression. But then I pulled up Puerto Rico radar on GRLevel. I have been watching for several hours and its just not strengthening right now and its surprising to see that satellite look with the deep convection near the center and not have this thing just taking off. It still has at least 2 centers of rotation. I don't buy it at all but the GFS brings this across Florida and straight west across the northern Gulf towards Texas.
 
I never knew a wave could look so ominous on sat, I guess you learn somthing new everyday. The area of convection is huge! The models show it tracking in a similar way that Ernesto did in 06'. Not sure how well it will fair going over a portion of Hispanola (sp?).
 
Good day all,

Hispanola (Dom Republic and Haiti) will un-doubtedly kill this thing becuase you have terrain nearly 11,000 feet high there. Even if the system goes north of there, the south winds on its east side will ingest dry (subsident down-slope) air (anyone remember debbie back in Aug 2000? It passed Puerto Rico and ingested the dry air from the mountains near Dominican Rep and weakened to a TD then a wave in only 24 hours).

Also, to my suprise as well - since this thing looks to impressive on the satellite, it is all but just a very strong wave. The circulation might be in the mid-levels (near 700 MB) and outflow / upper air is impressive ... However, a LLC is only starting to get organized.

This is why a satellite image is not enough ... You have to fly a plane in-situ and actually measure it (like the USAF did yesterday and found no depression yet, also to their suprise). Radar at San Juan also shows little right now.

If this thing tracks like Ernesto did in 2006, it would be just that ... A tropical depression hitting FL with NHC hyping it way out of proportion and un-necessarily scare-ing lots of people. I remember Ernesto in '06 ... Was so close to chasing it (I was living in St Louis at the time) ... Glad I didn't because I just did not see it strengthening over the mountains in Cuba like the NHC promised it would ;-(

Upper level winds can be perfect for development, but these things will NOT form over land, period.

Also, mountains are the worst "enemy" to the low-level structure of a tropical system due to dry air (subsidence / downslope) and disruption of the circulation due to drag.

The big threat (which is actually MORE common with a weak system) is the rains ... In Hispanola this can be very bad (flash floods) ... remember? Which storm killed more people (Jeanne in FL at 120 MPH on Sep 25, 2004 = 20 killed Vs Jeanne in Haiti earlier that week at 50 MPH = 3000+ killed in floods).
 
Good points Christopher and all.... think I'll abort going after this "thing" unless it some how survives the terrain and re-emerges into the Gulf as a more organized "thing."

Warren
 
I haven't looked at today's model guidance, but yesterday there were a couple of models (can't remember which) that put a Cat 4 cane just off central FL paralleling the coast moving north. I think NOGAPS and another model has soon-to-be-Fay skirting the Keys and moving into the GOM.
 
GFDL latest run on this is very interesting indeed.

Takes it West across to the South side of Cuba and then intensifies it to Category 3 on a recurve in the GoM towards Florida.

I think this could be one for Mark Sudduth and Hurricanetrack.com.
 
Recon has found evidence pointing towards there being TS force surface winds...but are struggling to find a rather elusive LLCC...

Looks like the centre of mid level circulation is almost South of Hispaniola now. Whether that extends to being a LLCC is another matter.
 
Even if it becomes a TD or TS won't it just die off over the islands of Hispanol? If so it would not be a threat to anyone.
 
Warren Faidley said:
Good points Christopher and all.... think I'll abort going after this "thing" unless it some how survives the terrain and re-emerges into the Gulf as a more organized "thing."

Warren
Click to expand...
The fact there is not a low level center going across Hispanola favors further development. A mid-level low going over the mountainous tarrain is much better than a low level and mid-level low going over those mountains. I would expect to see rapid development once the sytem clears Haiti tomorrow. The outflow pattern plus the oceanic heat south of Cuba will allow rapid deepening over this weekend. I've seen these type of storm structures several times over the years in this region and they all went into the western Caribbean and GOM as major hurricanes.
 
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