In Winter weather not Nowcast

[Dennis Dennison]

Because I didnt want to post in the wrong spot

Out here in Arizona today, it has been cold and showery most all day, with snow in the high country.
I was watching radar today in the early afternoon, and saw there was a Meso over Phoenix, and a TVS east of town.

Not that there was anything tornadic out here, but in AZ the TVS usually shows for severe turbulence. I am expecting this area to perhaps either put out a December tornado as it gets east, or at least contribute to some heavy ice storms--any input?

 

[rdale]

Mesocyclone rotations and TVS signatures are not something you would use to correlate to ice storms, I'm not sure in this case there would be anything that indicated a tornado either.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

I believe I said it would not have anything to do with a tornado locally, but simply a measure of upper air turbulence out here. However this would indicate a fairly strong storm system that could lead to some evere weather as it heads east.

 

[rdale]

That's not the case either, frequently you can find a random TVS or Meso signature on radar that has nothing to do with expected severe weather. Those algorithms are not triggered by turbulence in the atmosphere.