Hurricane Season Guesses - 2015 Edition

Steve Miller

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For the 2015 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 - November 30, I have listed below some of the more prominent guesses from both public and private organizations.

SOME NOTES
Tropical season peak conditions: Sept 8-10 based on climatology
Named storms: winds of 39 mph or higher
Hurricane: winds of 74 mph or higher
Major hurricane: Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher


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NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms , of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes, including zero to 2 major hurricanes. I'm not sure anyone could be more vague but butts are certainly well covered given a 30 percent swing as well as a moderate spread between high and low guesses.

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A total of 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane are expected this season, according to the forecast prepared by The Weather Channel Professional Division. This is below the 30-year average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

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With 8 named tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane predicted for the Atlantic Basin this season, AccuWeather.com's long-range forecasting team anticipates two or three of these systems to make landfall in the United States.

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CSU's Philip Klotzbach and William Gray estimate that 2015 will have 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Note: this is the June 1 outlook which includes Ana.

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WeatherBell kept it simple and to the point. Named Storms: 7-9, Hurricanes 3-5, Major Hurricanes: 1-2.
 
Where'd you get NOAA's prediction from? If there's a 70% chance of all that happening, what did they fill the remaining 30% of the forecast distribution with, wind-blown frogs and toads?
 
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