Hurricane Dean

[Paul Redmond]

With all the rain from July and the tropical depression on top of it, historic flooding is a very real and frightening scenario. If my memory serves we are 18 inches above normal for the year according to the NWS, at the airport at least. I am sure that it is much higher for some areas around here, such as up by Lake Johnson, Uvalde, other parts of the hill country, not to mention the coastal region. Oh, and the drought is officially over.

 

[MClarkson]

GFDL says: Hi New Orleans, hows it going

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_1/12/images/hur_msl_108m.gif

 

[Blake Michaleski]

That's the last thing we need over there...

oh and its now a major hurricane with an initial intensity of 125kts.

 

[Paul Redmond]

It seems that GFDL is the only one pointing to New Orleans, and completely missed the Yucatan crossing. I think that run can be ruled out.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

How many Cat 3s do we usually see that don't have a clear eye? I can think of many Cat 1 and Cat 2 hurricanes that don't have much in the way of a clear eye, but not too many major hurricanes come to mind. There have been signs of an eye for the past 2 days, but one has yet to clear out. Recon found an inner and outer eyewall, and visible sat hints at an eye. The other sat imagery (IR, H2Ov, etc) hint less so, but we may see it clear out later this afternoon.

Model consensus continues to show Dean moving over the Yucatan, landfalling near Cancun as a strong Cat 4-5 storm, before moving into the Bay of Campeche. As noted above, however, there are a couple of models that suggest that the hit to the Yucatan may be more of a "skirt" or "miss" altogether (GFDL and NOGAPS, namely).

Purely based on anecdotal evidence, it does seem like a lot of storms tend to "split the goal posts" between Yucatan P. and Cuba. In the cases I'm remembering, earlier forecasts showed the storm(s) moving over western Cuba, only for the storm to instead shift west enough to split the two land masses. I'm not sure if there's anything to this (I don't think there is), but it's interesting anyway.

 

[cedwards]

That's the last thing we need over there...

oh and its now a major hurricane with an initial intensity of 125kts.

I think you meant to type 125 MPH.
Dean looks quite impressive on Satellite. nice clear eye visible. It does appear to be shifting a little farther north. This could be a temporary wobble. too early to tell if it is a real turn.

 

[Bob Schafer]

My whacky post for this week

Anyone remember Ivan?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml
(Dial-up warning: pretty big loop)

Go to the 9-10-04 11AM graphic. At the time, it seemed impossible for Jamaica to avoid anything but a catastrophic event. Sustained winds were 145mph, and landfall was but hours away. There was no way Jamaica had any chance of redemption.

Ivan missed Jamaica (essentially). It was a miracle, and the Jamaicans thanked God for sparing them. Speculation had it that the mountains of Jamaica "pushed" Ivan away.

Now look at the forecast track (3 or 5-day cone) for Ivan post-Jamaica at that same time, 040910, 15Z. At that time, Ivan seemed like he had a date with the FL gulf coast. Tampa Bay was sweating. We all know where Ivan made USA landfall after Jamiaca's "punt".

Dean is currently bearing down on Jamaica. Might we see something similar happen with Dean? If Dean gets punted by the Jamaican mountains, then what happens to his track? If Dean actually gets punted north of Jamaica, that could really be interesting.

Bob

 

[Warren Faidley]

RE: SA, most of the tornadoes were brief, dropping from low clouds moving very fast and impossible to chase or detect (e.g., wall clouds, etc.), at least in the metro area. It might be easier now with onboard radar. It has been my experience that tornadoes near the main circulation core (once inland) are rather difficult to chase and see. Jim? I don't recall any "wedge" reports, but that might have occurred in isolated cells away from the core or in the bands.

FYI: I did an extensive ground survery in 2000 of the area between Corpus-Brownsville and Corpus-Houston. Between Corpus and Brownsville, Highway 77 could be a serious problem if you were trapped on that lonely highway with a Cat-4+. I don't recall many places worth shooting in that area and there was little infrastructure, at least in 2000. In addition, ALL gas stations along the highway in towns like Armstrong were closed. The area between Corpus and Houston is also a challenge. Locals may know more and please post and correct me if you know of any new survivable vantage points in that area.

Warren

 

[MClarkson]

It takes a very powerful storm to completely clear out an eye at all times.


The GFDL is a right outlier by a good margin. Yes, it is not as likely to occur, but I wouldnt throw it out completely. It is the GFDL...

 

[Blake Michaleski]

I think you meant to type 125 MPH.

You are correct Charles.... 125 mph.

edit: it appears in a rush i saw the flight level data of 124 kts and then read 125mph surface winds and accidentally mixed them up somewhere between my brain and my fingers on the keyboard.

 

[Bob Schafer]

How many Cat 3s do we usually see that don't have a clear eye?

How's this? Vis sat shows the eye is still filled in with clouds, but Dean has become quite symmetrical.

 

[MClarkson]

looking better now... eye pretty clear on infrared, getting symetrical. Plane is about 100nm out.


...plane is in the eye, picked up 700mb winds of 130 knots in the NW quad... typical reduction to surface=115 knots, cat 4. Might find something stronger in the NE quad. Also 123kt on the SFMR. Cat 4 for sure.

 

[MatthewCarman]

NOAA/NWS saying this is only a Cat 3 hurricane but some strengthining is expected. We now have a very strong hurricane in the atlantic. If it strengthens to a Cat 4 it will become a major hurricane.

Edit: Looks like Jamaica could be hit in the next few days. Anyone going to fly down and watch this Hurricane?

 

[MClarkson]

NHC just upgraded dean to a 4, and anything 3 or higher is a 'major hurricane'

 

[cedwards]

Jim Leonard, George Kourounis, Brad Riley, and Peter Rowe will be flying down in the morning.