Hurricane Dean

[Blake Michaleski]

Like Isadore?

 

[Brandon Clement]

I seem to remember a lot more hurricanes that are severely interrupted (inner core disrputions) as they cross the Yucatan and are unable to regain their strength than otherwise. There are many cases of storms crossing smaller land masses (e.g. Cuba) and reintensifying quickly thereafter (e.g. Dennis in 2005), but I can't think of too many major hurricanes that spent >6 hrs of land crossing the Yucatan that were then able to reach their previous intensity (or within 20 kts of that intensity). Just my limited experience, though!

I agree for the most part but not many hurricanes have hit the Yucatan as a category 4 storm moving 20mph and then moving into the Gulf with ideal conditions for a tropical system. Opal hit the Yucatan (didn't graze it) as a tropical depression, moved slowly over land and was a Category 4 hurricane before it made it half way across the Gulf. Granted, Opal was moving much slower but it was also MUCH, MUCH weaker when moving on to land.


Hey Blakeypoo

 

[Blake Michaleski]

Hey now!!! None of that...

The worst part of this so far is all the people in Mobile, asking me what I think. I typically dont begin watching these things untill they get in the Carribbean. So maybe tomorrow I'll form an opinion.

 

[Brandon Clement]

I also forgot to mention that the SW Gulf of Mexico is the deepest area in the Gulf:
http://www.gulfbase.org/facts.php


And the warmest:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_sst_NW_ophi0.png

 

[Brandon Clement]

Looking at the latest water vapor and IR on Goes Floater 1 it appears that Dean has either pushed the really dry air off or the dry air retreated to the north. My theory is that the night time temperatures and the dewpoints yeild better moisture. Anyway, looking at the Satellite you can see storms blowing up then Dean is pulling them up and around the center from the SE quadrant instead of from the SW. On IR you can see a warm dot in the center indicating an eye is reforming. The outflow to the south is much better the past few frames since the afternoon convection a few hundred miles to the SE of Dean has died down. I'm thinking that Dean is going to get a good bit stronger overnight.

We shall see and I will shut up for the night.

 

[MClarkson]

it would be difficult for a storm to landfall in the yucatan and then recover to cat 4 strength for a second landfall along mainland mexico or southern texas. Of course that depends on exactly how solid(if any) the yucatan landfall is... scraping the northern yucatan or splitting the uprights between cuba and cancun are still easily possible this far out, and would leave a much greater threat to the western GOM, while a further south track could mean no significant second landfall.


00z models: GFS continues with its mid yucatan landfall, I dont think its changed by more than 20 miles in the last day. HWRF and GFDL are in surprisingly good agreement with eachother, both ending up in almost the exact same spot and intensity by day 5, scraping the northern yucatan as a <920mb monster.

on to the less reliable models...
00z NOGAPS and GEM are a bit south, UKMET close to the GFDL-HWRF. I wish the euro runs werent so old.

 

[Gene Moore]

300 MB problems?

Reference tonights NAM run. Look at the forecast of another cutoff low aloft breaking away form the base of the trof....getting caught up in the easterly flow and moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Texas has seen a number of these this season. Question is, will this one clear out it time or will it be a spoiler?

 

[Rob Lightbown]

I found it interesting that most the GFS Ensemble members show a further north track than the operational GFS model. Perhaps, the GFDL, UKMET and HWRF models are onto something.

GFS Ensemble tracks: http://www.crownweather.com/ensemble.png

 

[John Peters]

Morning visible showing CDO Expanding on the western side of the storm, and it appears that eyewall convection is wrapping around to the east. As soon as the eyewall becomes "complete" i'd expect more rapid intensification.

 

[Paul Redmond]

I looked at the latest models at the weather underground. The BAMM, GFS and NOGAP computor models show dean moving over yucatan as a catagory 4 and then reentering the gulf and quickly becoming a cat 5. These runs show DEAN heading for the south texas coast or into old mexico. The GFDL and UKMET models show DEAN missing yucatan and heading for Houstun northwards. It looks like the worst case scenarios outlined in the UKMET and GFDL models are less likely. Still could dean make a sharp turn to the north once it is in the gulf? Timing seems to have been stretched out as well with a projected landfall thursday.

My next dumb question will be if it makes landfall south of Houston, as a cat 5 and heads towards San Antonio, how strong will it be over SA? Its kinda like one of those plan a trip north or buy plywood and stay questions.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Your biggest problem in SA would likely be tornadoes (and flooding) depending on where the circulation core tracks. In 1988, I chased Hurricane Gilbert in the region and had a tornado hit about 1/4 mile from where I was staying in SA.

Warren

 

[John Peters]

I looked at the latest models at the weather underground. The BAMM, GFS and NOGAP computor models show dean moving over yucatan as a catagory 4 and then reentering the gulf and quickly becoming a cat 5. These runs show DEAN heading for the south texas coast or into old mexico. The GFDL and UKMET models show DEAN missing yucatan and heading for Houstun northwards. It looks like the worst case scenarios outlined in the UKMET and GFDL models are less likely. Still could dean make a sharp turn to the north once it is in the gulf? Timing seems to have been stretched out as well with a projected landfall thursday.

My next dumb question will be if it makes landfall south of Houston, as a cat 5 and heads towards San Antonio, how strong will it be over SA? Its kinda like one of those plan a trip north or buy plywood and stay questions.

depends on forward speed and intensity at initial landfall. You have a 15kt+ forward motion and cat 5 landfall, i wouldn't be surprised if you experienced some 75 mph+ gusts. If dean is moving slower when it makes landfall, it will have more time to weaken, and torrential rain will become your biggest issue.

Your biggest problem in SA would likely be tornadoes (and flooding) depending on where the circulation core tracks. In 1988, I chased Hurricane Gilbert in the region and had a tornado hit about 1/4 mile from where I was staying in SA.

Warren

didn't Gilbert produce an F-3 tornado or two? Or is this a different storm I am thinking of?

 

[cedwards]

It look slike a nice eye forming based on visible sat pics.
If I was on the Texas coast, I would be preparing now.
My parents live near Corpus Christi only a few blocks from the water. They already have plywood (from previous years) and are ready to board up and have a place inland to go if they have to.

 

[Gene Moore]

I saw a video taken near Del Rio of a wedge tornado produced by Gilbert. Warren, do you have any video or stills of the storms, tornadoes or structure that came from this Gilbert tornado outbreak? Was the wedge your video? I for one have seen very little visual documentation of this event. Few tropical tornado outbreaks are photogenic except the supercells way out on the spiral bands.

The area around San Antonio was ravaged by tornadoes during Allen, that was in 1980. A much weaker storm with landfall of less intensity than its previous cat-5 status. If this next storm passes near San Antonio with heavy rains it will be horrific, Uvalde a small town between Del Rio and San Antonio recently had 17 inches of rain, now we have this latest event to keep streams full. It could shut down all of south Texas.

Gene Moore

 

[MClarkson]

160230 1447N 06247W 6970 02865 9691 +126 +126 151093 100 096 009 00
160300 1448N 06246W 6935 02951 9757 +109 +109 151113 115 096 010 03
160330 1450N 06244W 6942 02988 9826 +089 +089 147103 105 096 046 00


115 knots at 700mb and 96 of the SFMR. Pressure continues to deepen modestly, down to 963. Looks like a 100 knot cat 3 to me.



12z GFS is in the central yucatan yet again. The consistancy of the GFS runs over the last 2 days is impressive, especially if it ends up verifying. The 06z HWRF is over the northern yucatan, the GFDL splits the uprights into the GOM. Both models continue to call for epic central pressures, also supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models which have been in the 125-140 knot range lately.