Randall Marable
EF1
Houston weather company predicts fewer hurricanes this year
The Weather Research Center in Houston doesn't think this will be an active hurricane season.
Meteorologist Jill Hasling predicts only eight tropical storms will form this summer, less than half the number of storms forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
But that's only part of the WRC forecast. "The main purpose is to indicate which section of the U.S. coast has the highest risk of landfall," Hasling told me. And according to her, Florida has the best chance of being hit by a tropical storm or hurricane this year. There's also a greater chance of a storm hitting Texas than the East Coast of the U.S.
Sunspot from NASAThe WRC forecast is unique and not just because it predicts a "below average season" and where a hurricane could make landfall. Hasling and her late father, John C. Freeman for whom Houston's Weather Museum is named, developed the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index which matches the circulation pattern on the sun with weather patterns on Earth.
"In our research we found that there are patterns of movement in these large scale patterns that can be sorted into an index and used to make an outlook for the season," says Hasling.
The sunspot cycle was in a similar phase in 1925 and only one hurricane formed that year. The last time we were in this phase of the cycle was 1998 and 13 tropical cyclones formed. During other analog years fewer storms formed, but the average is eight.
"The OCSI is 88.5% accurate," Hasling claims. "More accurate than Professor Gray's model" used by Colorado State University which predicts this hurricane season will be very active.
Let's hope the WRC forecast is correct.
Link..http://weatherblog.abc13.com/
The Weather Research Center in Houston doesn't think this will be an active hurricane season.
Meteorologist Jill Hasling predicts only eight tropical storms will form this summer, less than half the number of storms forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
But that's only part of the WRC forecast. "The main purpose is to indicate which section of the U.S. coast has the highest risk of landfall," Hasling told me. And according to her, Florida has the best chance of being hit by a tropical storm or hurricane this year. There's also a greater chance of a storm hitting Texas than the East Coast of the U.S.
Sunspot from NASAThe WRC forecast is unique and not just because it predicts a "below average season" and where a hurricane could make landfall. Hasling and her late father, John C. Freeman for whom Houston's Weather Museum is named, developed the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index which matches the circulation pattern on the sun with weather patterns on Earth.
"In our research we found that there are patterns of movement in these large scale patterns that can be sorted into an index and used to make an outlook for the season," says Hasling.
The sunspot cycle was in a similar phase in 1925 and only one hurricane formed that year. The last time we were in this phase of the cycle was 1998 and 13 tropical cyclones formed. During other analog years fewer storms formed, but the average is eight.
"The OCSI is 88.5% accurate," Hasling claims. "More accurate than Professor Gray's model" used by Colorado State University which predicts this hurricane season will be very active.
Let's hope the WRC forecast is correct.
Link..http://weatherblog.abc13.com/
