Has anyone looked at the latest NCEP?

[Ryan McGinnis]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc...72_latestBW.gif

Look at what ye' ol' GFDL wants to do with it:

Click FWD to animate

Fortunately, we all know that individual models are never right this far out, so hopefully that's the one place it can't possibly hit.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Another Cat 4 into se LA?! Yeah, that's a scary solution, though I give it about 0.5% of becoming reality. While the GFDL did VERY (!) well with Katrina on the whole (it was the only model that showed a sw path through FL and a second landfall west of the MS/AL border before Katrina made landfall in FL), this as-yet-unnamed-storm hasn't formed yet... As we've seen numerous times, we really don't know a whole lot about tropical storm genesis.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Is the FSU Superensemble publicly available? I ask because it was noted as the most accurate model in most of the TPC discussions last weekend.

 

[Robert Dewey]

NHC does have it highlighted as a danger region for tropical development in the next 36 hours... It will be interesting to see just what happens to that convection blowing up east of FL, if that may be what is trying to get organized.

 

[rdale]

"Is the FSU Superensemble publicly available?"

No. Gotta protect the private / public partnership ;>

 

[HAltschule]

Here is the link for a lot of useful tropical models, including the FSU MM5. The models are delayed from being posted due to NHC guidelines in not wanting the public to have access to them and make their own forecasts. At least, this is what I had heard through the grapevine years ago. But it is still very helpful. As far as the GFDL goes...it is usually a very reliable tropical model. But literally every other model that I have seen keeps a tropical storm or hurricane along the Florida East Coast for the next couple of days. A few bring it inland. One has to wonder how strong this system can get? It is over the Gulf Stream but it is over an area that saw major upwelling of water only 1 week ago.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Based on the Floater 2 Visible Loop, a circulation appears to be developing over the NWrn Bahamas and a C-MAN station located near Grand Bahama Island is reporting 29kt winds from 50deg. The developing cyclone is currently over VERY warm waters of the Gulf Stream (>30C), however the waters are not overly deep and the TCHP is less than 75 kJ cm-2. Vertical shear is relatively light (on the order of 5-10kts), low level convergence has become more concentrated over the Nrn Bahamas, and upper level divergence has been increasing over the past 12-24hrs.

What I don't understand is why most, if not all, of the forecast models indicate that the system should meander around the FL Atlantic coast region for the next couple days considering steering currents support movement to the W or even SW (barring any SIGNIFICANT deepening).

 

[HAltschule]

What I don't understand is why most, if not all, of the forecast models indicate that the system should meander around the FL Atlantic coast region for the next couple days

Well, the GFS and ETA both have pretty strong ridges aloft and at the surface from the Northeastern US down into the Gulf of Mexico. With 500mb wind speeds 10kts or less over Florida, there's really not much to steer this system. In fact, the winds along the Florida west coast are from the Northwest. Whatever forms will likely be stationary or drifitng for a couple of days. It's hard to argue against the models and there non-motion since the system is just sitting there right now. In these cases, persistence is the best forecast.

 

[jaybarnsmith]

Interesting, hopefully it will head towards New Orleans if it does form and not towards Texas or such where all the survivors from New Orleans are staying.

 

[David Wolfson]

The stagnant motion is I think based on a weak system. All things equal I'd presume that a strong tropical storm (if it develops) could export enough outflow northward to raise pressures a little bit and push the circulation westward. This was the case with K. IMO in the same environment.

With respect to TCHP, or lack thereof, my impression is that it more comes into play with very slow moving storms and/or stronger hurricanes. There's enough warm water and energy to support a decent hurricane, with the gulf having recovered some from K.

Edit: It's also worth speculating on what extent Fujiwara interaction with Nate will urge the circulation southward if it can gain at least storm strength.