Gulf of Mexico?

[Justin Bailey]

been watching the computer models and for the last 4 runs...both the GFS and NOGAPS are picking up on a tropical system developing near the yucatan and moving north into the GOM. obviously its way too early to call anything, but it will be something worth watching as it gets closer. It could possibly impact lots of folks 4th of july plans.

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

With the strength of the uppper ridge not showing any signs of diminshing I will place this potential on "not a chance in hell to relieve my dead lawn because of the drought" status.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Invest 95L has been declared for an area of interest just off the Yucatan West coast. Models are still all over the place as to whether or not this will form into a tropical system - but for the time being it requires monitoring...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

The NHC gives this now a 90% chance of a tropical system forming after RECON found a LLC.

90 PERCENT...OFTHIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

 

[Ryan Orlando]

Well it has officially been named Arlene as of 0Z 6/29!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Interesting - SHIPS model now has this at 60 MPH before landfall, GFDL however does not agree.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

It appears this storm will make landfall near or north of Veracruz (Mexico) on Thursday (6/30).

Intensity at landfall should be a moderate tropical storm (~60 MPH or so).

We have a June storm on the last days of the month!

 

[Justin Bailey]

seems the models had a pretty good handle on this one as early as last wednesday...sure they went away from it there for a couple days but in the end the long range forecast was quite good i would say.

 

[rdale]

I'm not sure that would be a pretty good handle, unless this system somehow moves back out into the Gulf and hits the US like you originally had posted?

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Arlene has intensified and now looks much better on Radar. A recent aircraft RECON flight has found 60knot winds which is just below CAT1 hurricane strength. DORVAK number are now up to 3

Arlene could quite possibly become a CAT1 hurricane before landfall as the upper air shear that was hindering development has decreased. Time will tell.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

A further twist!
18Z UKMO model indicates rapid intensification before landfall - could Arlene possible become a June hurricane?

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2011 21.6N 95.2W MODERATE
00UTC 30.06.2011 21.4N 96.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.06.2011 21.6N 97.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.07.2011 21.0N 100.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.07.2011 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

With only 5 or 10 MPH to go to become a hurricane, and a whole night of "time over warm water", YES indeed, Arlene should be a minimal hurricane at landfall given the low shear and good presentation on the IR channels right now.

So far away down there near Bay of Campeche / Mexico though - Hey Josh Morgerman, are U there?

 

[Justin Bailey]

rdale, to show a tropical system coming off the yucatan and developing in the southern gulf of mexico at 180hrs i'd argue is pretty good.

 

[rdale]

Sure, but the models do that quite often with nothing happening in the real world. I didn't watch the entire progression, but you originally were concerned about this weekend with a US landfall, then it was dropped completely, now it's back but with completely different location. You'll find that occurring quite often this time of year, and given that the outcome was so different from the original projection I guess we have to differ on the definition of "good"...