Just wanted to pass along some good research that is being done on the effects of ENSO phase on severe weather across parts of the plains. The first link is basically the how behind the research project which was presented at the SLS in St. Louis, MO in 2006, and the second link is the extended abstract from the presentation from last falls SLS in Savannah, GA. From the research that we have done so far, there does seem to be a statistically significant correlation with ENSO phase and severe weather in parts of the Plains. The reason behind this correlation is certainly apparent when analyzing the mean 500 mb heights for La Nina springs. Although, the pattern is stronger if we can maintain a La Nina throughout the spring.
http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/115322.pdf
http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/141973.pdf
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