John MacKay
EF2
I still don't know which way I should take (NM and TX panhandle or KS/CO).
Looking at the driving time from Denver to the panhandle, I'm going with flying to Denver rather than Albuquerque (Denver would be cheaper minus the gas difference). It also will give me more options, as I'd rather go to KS (my former home state of 24 years).
With the last GFS and NAM runs, it looks like I won't have to drive far from either one. The question to be resolved will be how sharp the dryline is IMO, and that won't be known for another day of two. That would be my key to where I should be, as a 30 to 40 degree dewpoint difference will lead to explosive development in the forecasted environment for Saturday. I'll worry about LCLs the day of, as we won't have any accurate handle on that until Friday or early Saturday (thanks to the unknown of modified continental moisture vs. Gulf moisture). It's a 50/50 event on this being a big tornado producer or being a nice severe weather event with minimal tornadoes.
My goal is to see a supercell, and anything else I will enjoy (hopefully, that elusive tornado and not the gorilla hail). I'm getting thunderstorm deprived here, so expectations are low. I should see a line of thunderstorms at least on the way back to Denver (or sitting somewhere for the night).
Looking at the driving time from Denver to the panhandle, I'm going with flying to Denver rather than Albuquerque (Denver would be cheaper minus the gas difference). It also will give me more options, as I'd rather go to KS (my former home state of 24 years).
With the last GFS and NAM runs, it looks like I won't have to drive far from either one. The question to be resolved will be how sharp the dryline is IMO, and that won't be known for another day of two. That would be my key to where I should be, as a 30 to 40 degree dewpoint difference will lead to explosive development in the forecasted environment for Saturday. I'll worry about LCLs the day of, as we won't have any accurate handle on that until Friday or early Saturday (thanks to the unknown of modified continental moisture vs. Gulf moisture). It's a 50/50 event on this being a big tornado producer or being a nice severe weather event with minimal tornadoes.
My goal is to see a supercell, and anything else I will enjoy (hopefully, that elusive tornado and not the gorilla hail). I'm getting thunderstorm deprived here, so expectations are low. I should see a line of thunderstorms at least on the way back to Denver (or sitting somewhere for the night).
