"forecast"...4/20 - 4/26.."everywhere"

[Shane Adams]

I loathe forecasting, but it's a neccesary evil if you're to at least have a shot at consistent success. It all comes down to "how bad do you wanna chase?" On March 28, I didn't want it that bad....and paid the price....which sent me into a fury and made me wake up, pull my head outta my ass, and realize "hey dude, you're Shane Adams....you chase....that's what you do."

I've driven 1000 miles and seen nothing....and I've sat on my ass and watched radars filled with supercells I could've been under....I'll take the former.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Chasing storms and tornadoes as well as forecasting the weather is Just like Playing Chess. Its just that your opponent is Mother Nature......and she is ALOT better chess player than you are. ;-)

 

[Matt Chatelain]

Yeah, even if these may not be insane huge outbreaks, it does look like we are in for a period of chasing, which always gets me excited. I like the fact that we may get a few more oppritunities than just one. And Reed I believe the needle between two wedges will be so violent that it will make a high pitched drilling sound.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I wil definitely be out on Saturday. Dewpoints don't look extremely impressive but they will be in the upper 50's in the eastern TX panhandle. South TX has Td in the mid 60's now so the gulf is starting to open up for business again. Remember the wedges and cones on the 28th? Dewpoints were in the upper 50's that day so I'm not worried about moisture for this next event. No, I'm not saying that Sat. will be another March 28th but it does have potential.

I think if upper 50's dewpoints transpire on Saturday, there will absolutely be a tornado watch issued in the eastern panhandle. Great speed and directional shear will result in rotating updrafts. I'm betting a moderate risk will be issued for the eastern TX panhandle and western OK. I will chase no matter what. When I'm out I never give up because as my friend Dan Skoff once said, "the chase isn't over until the head hits the pillow".

 

[Dan Robinson]

I like the second trough coming in on Tuesday per the 00z GFS run, though it may end up too far south. Between the two systems, if they can offer 3 or 4 decent chase days, I may break my no-April trip philosophy.

 

[Ray Walker]

Ya, chasing isnt a hobby, a job, or a thrill seeking adrenaline rush. Not for me anyways it is a passion. You drive thousands of miles to see an outbreak or just a good supercell and you end up in nothing more than rain or blue skies. But if you are persistent and keep it up the one chase out of the year that produces a tornado or that one intense supercell is worth all the other chases combined. In my opinion that is why it isnt a hobby, or a job it is a passion for most of us. Now it is a hobby for others but for the Jim leonards, Shane adams, Reed Timmers, Gene Rhodens, Tony labachs, ( sorry if i spelled that wrong) Verne Carlsons, and I could go on and on and on and on. But for these kinds of chasers it is a passion and that is why they see tornadoes and the massive supercells that plague the plains year after year. You have to bust to win.


But anyways I am REALLY likeing the Tuesday setup for next week. If it all comes together just right I could see some ugly storms in Oklahoma 4/24/07.

 

[SteveCarter]

This Saturday event continues to look pretty impressive. I'm thinking Saturday may be about it tho, and since I'm in SC, i may have to let this one slide by. HOWEVER.......tuesday - thursday? HMMMMMM. This one may warrant the annual long 3,000+ drive and so forth. Still so dadgum far out tho!! What I'm HOPING for is a slower-moving sustem that spins across the lower Mississippi Valley into s/IN - e/Tn areas. This would give me about 2-3 days of chasing, and bring it closer to home. Having said all that, Saturday still looks like a great chase day! I'm not looking for an "outbreak", I'm looking for a few good CHASEABLE tubes. SPC....THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SEVERE EVENT WILL INDEED OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME FRAME OVER THE SRN PLAINS. (M-W)

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I think every day with a cloud growing vertically, from here on out the rest of the year, will be HUGE. I think we now have enough chasers willing better outcomes, that the lord will answer these prayers, giving us massive tornadoes all the time. I'd just like to thank everyone for their wills.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Let them be with their wills! They'll all get bored and stop chasing and clear the highways so those of us who just enjoy being out in the weather can roam without the circus!

My two days of interest; Saturday and Tuesday... would like to see Tues become Mon in the interest of scheduling, but I'm good either way!

 

[Jay McCoy]

Same here Tony. I have Emergency Service training Tuesday evening so I would much rather it be Monday but will take what I am given. Saturday still looks like a very good day along the dryline. Please let all the doubters stay home so we can have some more room. With it being a weekend though I expect the usual zoo. I dont see much happening thursday or Friday except maybe an elevated hailer if that.

As for long term the GFS can barely get it close within 5 days.. anything past that is pure guesswork.

 

[Reed Timmer]

I've never had any issues with the zoo...it usually thins out within a half mile of the hose!

Saturday and Tuesday look huge...I'd prefer the slightly higher bases of Saturday as the tornadoes are often more photogenic. Hopefully we can get at Tds of at least 55 so we don't waste the INCREDIBLE shear.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I don't see too many people on here driving five hours or more to chase when there isn't a chance at tornadoes. IMO part of being a good chaser/forecaster is knowing when NOT to chase.
I am still getting 20,000 miles a year, just as many tornadoes as the next guy, and burnt out by the end of season, so as far as I'm concerned I am doing plenty of chasing.

 

[Shane Adams]

I like Saturday simply because so many people have been worrying themselves to death about it. IMO the systems that seem like "locks" are usually the letdowns.....while these "well it looks good except for..." type days are usually the ones where I'm smiling ear to ear around sunset. But right now I'm far more intrigued by Friday....nothing I like better than getting the tube before the tubes.

 

[Reed Timmer]

If this trend continues we may be in New Mexico again on Saturday.

I like Friday as well...it looks like a LLJ magic type day.

 

[SteveCarter]

I couldn't agree more with what most of you said.....Let the skeptics stay home and then WISH they would have chased. Unfortunately for me, South Carolina is just to far away to chase ONE day, when Tuesday and Wednesday may BOTH be pretty good, so I'm banking on THAT system. Tuesday just seems like a better chance, but if not for the 14 hour (one way) drive to the western Plains, I'd still be on Saturdays chase. If I waited until the "perfect" set-up, I'd be sitting in my armchair ALL seaon, and that's not what a chaser does. BTW....to ME, a storm chaser chases STORMS...don't need a tube to have a great time here! Any thoughts into WHERE the sfc low will go Tues - Thur? It looks like it may be a closed L, so hopefully the thing will sit and spin it's magic for more than one day. You all that chase Saturday...good luck...think you'll be glad you chased! wish I was out there with ya, and who knows, maybe I'll get a wild hair up my a$$, and see ya anyways! lol