"forecast"...4/20 - 4/26.."everywhere"

[SteveCarter]

Mods, feel free to move this thread, but have NO idea where to put it. It appears that the next week may be AWESOME..with two major events taking shape. Even Friday 4/20 could be the initiation. Sat looks great, Sun..? Monday through Thursday another possible fantastic set-up. I didn't want to specify a day, or an exact location because it's just to early. What are your thoughts about the general week ahead, and where? A LOT coming up...it's going to be a chasers dream week. Specificially from the Plains...moving eventually into the Mississippi Valley, perhaps even into the SE...who knows?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

MOD Note: Since some of these potential events are >7 days out, and the areal designation cannot be definately outlined, a general discussion about next week's potential 'setups' is allowed here. When timing and threat areas become better defined, someone can feel free to start a FCST thread for that particular day and area.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I agree.. I am glad to see it too!! Im ready to go! Just hope things dont change!

 

[Karen Politte]

In my opinion - Saturday looks less than great (I don't equate bad trajectories with modified air coming at us from the east coast as great). I don't quite know where the models are getting their 65oF+ Tds in KS forecasts from but they worry me and I don't believe them. I don't care whether it's the fabled evapotranspiration or something else - I just don't see it happening.

The past couple of cold air intrusions into the Gulf have been horrific and I think we need to remember that when looking ahead to an upcoming system. The only significant thing I can say about the next 7 days is that they will see us shift back to the desired southwesterly flow and Pacific systems that are so desirable for chasing. The most important thing now is to get some systems that manage to come through the Plains without crashing a cold front down to kingdom-come into the Gulf behind them.

It seems (to me at least) that every single forecast thread nowadays seems to center around the alarmingly common misconception that every trough that swings in from the Rockies is going to bring about "outbreaks" and wipe some cities off the map of some poor state. I wouldn't describe this average-looking mid-April setup as "a chaser's dream".

We are talking about a COUPLE of troughs that are progged to come through and, so far, are still hanging out in dreamland as far as forecasting, meteorological or geographical accuracy is concerned. One of them looks semi-interesting as something to watch evolve while I eat my cereal in the morning, and the other looks like it's digging way the hell south as of today's GFS.

I just wish that that some wouldn't take every system as the next "major" system. Admittedly I don't claim to have been chasing as long as some on here - but I still do recall a time when we could look upon upcoming troughs without calling them "major" or "doomsday-like" or "outbreak-causing" or saying that we'd better start praying for those poor, poor people in the Plains. There is - as far as I can see - absolutely no reason to do so this far out with such a normal-looking spring setup. A bit stormy, yes, a chance of tornadoes, yes. Another May 4th or 8th, 2003? Probably not.

Sigh.

KL

 

[Terry Tyler]

looks good, but ive seen things switch up at the last minute...

no doubt somethings gonna happen

 

[SteveCarter]

It seems (to me at least) that every single forecast thread nowadays seems to center around the alarmingly common misconception that every trough that
swings in from the Rockies is going to bring about "outbreaks" and wipe some cities off the map of some poor state. I wouldn't describe this average-looking mid-April setup as "a chaser's dream".

We are talking about a COUPLE of troughs that are progged to come through and, so far, are still hanging out in dreamland as far as forecasting, meteorological or geographical accuracy is concerned. One of them looks semi-interesting as something to watch evolve while I eat my cereal in the morning, and the other looks like it's digging way the hell south as of today's GFS.

I just wish that that some wouldn't take every system as the next "major" system. Admittedly I don't claim to have been chasing as long as some on here - but I still do recall a time when we could look upon upcoming troughs without calling them "major" or "doomsday-like" or "outbreak-causing" or saying that we'd better start praying for those poor, poor people in the Plains. There is - as far as I can see - absolutely no reason to do so this far out with such a normal-looking spring setup. A bit stormy, yes, a chance of tornadoes, yes.

How about "significant", could you live with THAT? And also compared to the nightmare of the last 6 weeks, yes, this is a DREAM. This system coming into the Plains Fri-Sun?...could be, might be, a BIG one....Not every trough that comes through IS referred to as "doomsday"or whatever. ie...tomorrow. The SPC says...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT EVENT DAY 5. Day FIVE...significant from the SPC warrants a LOT of watching, and YES...it could be a MAJOR outbreak. If I thought it was definate, it would be posted in the FCST thread, but this thread is posted for discussion, which is what you, and others, are doing. Remember, this is STORMTRACK...for CHASERS, who relish the thought of severe weather, and naturally hope for the best possible set-up. As far as the actual forecast goes for this time period.....models are indicating anything from a "normal" April weather pattern, (which usually means a few tornadoes), up to a widespread significant severe OUTBREAK. So, while some may take the road less travelled, and sigh at the impending POSSIBILITIES, others will run with the better than 50-50 chance that they, and I...will be chasing this period from 4/20 - 4/26.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

It seems with every run the GFS adds another day on to the list with a potential setup. It will be interesting to see which days and how many of them produce anything. Atleast there is not as much fluxuation with the track of the storms on the GFS as there was leading up to the storm last week.

 

[Shane Adams]

The common thought that every system will be the next outbreak is no different than the common thought that every system will be a letdown....it's simply a reflection of personality.....the glass is half empty or half full. If I cared for forecasting I'd interject my opinions as well, but because I don't, I choose to stay on the sidelines until the reality of the situation (will it or won't it actually happen) becomes clear.....then I'll throw my 2 cents in.

I consider myself a bit of an expert on ST forecast threads because I've read a zillion of them....and I know what the opinions will be based on the name at the top of the post....it's cool because that shows who's who as far as general outlook...pessimist, optimist, realist. All are fascinating to observe...and easily tolerated with a bit of understanding.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Someone always has to crap in your frosted flakes. lol
This upcoming next week and a half look nice. Nobody is forecasting armageddon but jsut mentioning some good old time chasing fun. It will always boil down to one thing.....we can write forecast thread after forecast thread and get all fancy with the words but......Until the morning of an event happens.....we really dont know jack! and even then we dont know much. Even if you really think you do.
Id be focused Friday in the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles
Saturday accross the Southern Central Plains I.E. Oklahoma North Texas (perhaps central Texas) Kansas and even Southern Nebraska. Sunday may be more towards the trees of Mizzou Iowa Arkansas. Then the next system tries to get back moisture and relaod and then who knows?
In my opinion (which means nothng) If you dont like or disagree about why a people are cominicating in a a certan thread.....then leave out your 2 cents as they probably are biased for whatever reason. When the majority see something on the Horizon.....SOMETHING is gonna happen.....and no it may very well not turn out to be an "outbreak" but its spring...and storms moving into even modest moisture can do some amazing things. Also my idea of an "outbreak" may be different from what yours is.....some say an outbreak is a tornado outbreak....some say its numerous severe hail and or wind reports.....even flash flooding can be added to that....its all what your looking for and how you look at it.
Ill be chasing this weekend. Those who think the system isnt that great can sit home and cry to momma. Ill be watching my storms do what they always do....amaze me...be it tornado lightning winds rain or clouds.
Enjoy the WEATHER....not just your expectations of tornadoes.
Its April! Lets enjoy it and forecast and get into discussing our passion and work on our own forecasts....not telling other people they are wrong.....if they are wrong they will learn from theri mistake and become a better chaser for it.
Sometimes I wonder if there are alot of people who downplay others forecasts just due to the fact they are bitter about not chasing themselves? Maybe I am the only one who sees this? Maybe im jsut having a bad hair day or something. Such as the thread asking how people chase....and making remarks about them "skipping class" or how they get off work or make their money to chase so much.......WHO CARES! ITS NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS. Worry about how you can get yourself out in the field and stop wasting your time being backhanded and making sny remarks about others chase budgets of time and money.
Send you comments and hate mail to [email protected] Altho I have and wont mention any names.
It still amazes me how people I know who are over 30 act like they are about 8. "My toy is better than your!" "Why does your daddy make less money?" " " I dont see what possibly could be so exciting about this weekend....what model are YOU looking at?" and we wonder why people have low self esteem problems.
Im not saying dont post your own forecast even if its a complete 180 of what others are posting....and you think they are wrong....jsut post your own forecast and leave other forecasts alone. If ya want to agree with them thats great.....but dont try to make someone else forecast seem like they are totally out of this planet and on Mars.
This kinda crap has been on forums for years and IMO a few new rules on tearing down peoples personal ideas should be added to the ST forums list of dos and donts. I can see why ALOT of members read ST everyday.....and never post a thing.....even I post as little as I can...usually a quick idea forecast the day before or of the event and my report. In the past anything else I posted was analyzed reanalyzed and it jsut became not worth it.
I may jsut be having a bad day is all maybe I need to quite watching all the depressing news..
This weekend should be a blast and alot of chasers will be out their "not having to skip class" and using their "less than idea" forecasts" to get some amazing images for those to enjoy who cant be out chasing. Instead of loathing them for getting to do it....be glad they give you the priveledge of seeing their photos at all.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Let's keep this thread on-topic. Personal attacks, implied or otherwise, are not allowed.

If you have a problem with the comments of another, please use the appropriate means (e.g. Private Message if you don't think others will benefit from your comments) and appropriate language. Lambasting others is not an effective why through which to make your point. Yes, both sides of the issue (which I believe to be off-topic, by the way) are guilty of this, though one side seemed to take a more neutral, tactful approach.

Again, don't get all up in arms about another's comments. If you have a personal bone to pick, don't post in the public forums. No need to get offended by differing opinions. I don't know why we've seen a few threads in the past couple of days which which people seemed to get offended and reacted in a testy, temperamental way.

With that, all further discussion must remain focused on this extended forecast -- period.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm still holding on to my "wait for May" approach to 2007. The upcoming system looks interesting, but not like a "I-have-to-be-there" event to me. The trough moving in isn't too impressive IMO (not a May 8-10 2003 blockbuster), moisture return is still a concern, and we're still in fast storm motion season.

The trough does start showing a nicer negative tilt as it moves east of the Mississippi. Now that might be something I would bite on, as it's a day's drive round-trip, not 3.

Shane's right, every poster has their own perspective. I'm more cautious about jumping on a setup because I've got a +1,000 mile drive to the target. That reflects in my pessimism and optimism on a setup. For me to make that drive, it really has to be a great setup with few cons. This one has too many for me. If I lived in the TX panhandle or OK right now, I'd probably sound a little different.

Just like March 28, there may be tornadoes, but I'm not going to worry about missing them. I want the slow-movers of May and June.

 

[Reed Timmer]

If we have 57+ dewpoints, Saturday will be the apocalypse. Write it down.

If dewpoints reach the low 60s, we'll have a violent needle with two wedges rotating around it.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Chaser optimism or pessimism...this is what leaves some watching tubes while others are home watching the tube, mowing the lawn, or plopped down in front of their latest radars going "WTF" ??!! As we get later into spring, the chances for more chaseable events increases, and certainly in my opinion we are about to pass beyond the April 20th date. This is when I normally consider crossing the chase gateway between scepticism and get your butt out the door and chase !! Saturday represents one of those challenging times when it comes down to do you believe the models. I believe as decently consistent this has been in showing that a strong wave was moving towards SW Kansas and Texas Panhandle. Who cares if it is a F1 cone or a brush hog F5 with the look that the end of the world is near...outbreak or a more scattered supercell case ? Just enjoy the forecast, the beauty of storms, and learn by doing. I still have a self inflicted bootprint for not having "chaser flu" on 3/28 by the way.

 

[Ray Walker]

To me this is the fun part of chasing, no one can forcast weather. All we can do is use the tools given to us and predect (guess in a way) about what we think will happen. This is very evedent in the SPC forcast as every forcaster has a different opinion. Forcasting weather is a science and if we could forcast weather then we all would be seeing tornadoes when they occur and sitting at home when tornadoes would not be touching down. We all are different and have different opinions on setups and what they will produce or not produce. But the truth is we just dont know what will happen. Take may-3-99 for example. However I just know that I am out whenever I can be because I love weather and I have seen tornadoes occur in conditions no one would have ever dreamed of.
But anyway back on subject. I do think that we are looking at a very active period setting up. Yes there will more than likely be a pretty big outbreak somewere, sometime before April is up. But know one knows for sure. I am thinking that Saturday and then again tuesday of next week will be big severe weather outbreaks,(not nessasaraly tornado outbreaks) but severe weather defanatly. All I know is Unless these systems just dissapear on the next model run then I am chasing. Tornadoes or not.

 

[SteveCarter]

The fact that this is almost May, also makes ME get more interested than perhaps Feb. This time of year, things kick off SO easy sometimes, and looking at the past "Mays'....I'm afraid to keep waiting for the "big" one. The second round next tuesday/wednesday seems like it may go a lot further south, and if that happens, then TN/KY/MS/AL may be in for a long couple of days. To me....I don't need the F-5 Kansas tube either...give me the southern states, and I'll be happy. Some of the worst outbreaks in the last few years have been in Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and other states that a lot of chasers won't chase. I'm pretty stoked about these next 4-9 days...a LOT can happen, but....time will tell.