• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

First high risk

Re: early

Maybe it is just me, but a lot of these dates seem pretty early...How frequent are High Risk outlooks in March and April?

I've had a lot of time to study "high risk climatology" while compiling my archive. High risks are fairly frequent in April (it's only in the last 2 years that May has stolen the show).

April high risks seem to be more prone to busting, or verifying only partially; but when they do verify they do so with a vengeance.

Some good recent examples of "partial verification" would be April 6, 2001, where a squall line developed with very little tornadic activity; April 11, 2001; where the high risk included Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin but only the Iowa part verified; and April 6, 2003; where there was lots of hail and wind but only a few tornadoes (a MDT risk would have sufficed).

Of course you have only to look at lists of historical infamous tornadoes to learn what happens when April high risks do verify...April 26, 1991; April 19, 1996; April 8, 1998; April 16, 1998...etc. Not to mention April 3, 1974, which would certainly have been a high risk had the SPC issued convective outlooks in the modern format.

March high risks are more infrequent, usually because the instability is marginal but kinematic fields are very strong. Fast-moving squall lines are typical (March 8, 1999 and March 4, 2004) but when tornadic supercells can develop they can be just as bad as April outbreaks (March 13, 1990, March 27, 1994).

http://sphs.angeltowns.net/A_R_Wehrle/highrisk.html
 
Sunday, April 10th - NW Missouri/SW Iowa ... I'm forecasting a fast moving, early breaking (let's say 12 noon) cold core mini-supe fest that day because I'll be in NYC all week ... so there's sure to be a major weather event.
 
Anybody thinking perhaps Monday, March 21? :shock: Several WFOs putting in some strong wording about "significant severe weather" and "strong tornadoes" and the SPC put a 25% line on the SWODY3 prob, and I have seen very few high risk days that were not preceded by a 25% line (max prob used 3 days out) on the SWODY3.
 
i'd say a mod. risk is almost certain in the new day 2 outlook, but i dont think this event will be the first high risk. with all of the WWA precp, there should be alot of cloud cover and limited daytime heating, so i think that will keep this event in the mod range and not high risk.
 
Originally posted by Ben Prusia
Looks like today is the day, down South, SPC indicated they will upgrade to HIGH risk for areas in LA.
SHHHH!

I say that the first high risk will be... April 11th, in the LA/MS area...

:lol:
 
Mike Peregrine, and Terry Kollmeyer seemed to be the closest, they were right on the day but the risk catagory given wasnt. By the way mike i hate that Burger King commercial. its the worst one they have ever produced but any way what ever floats your boat.
 
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