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First high risk

Sunday, April 10th - NW Missouri/SW Iowa ... I'm forecasting a fast moving, early breaking (let's say 12 noon) cold core mini-supe fest that day because I'll be in NYC all week ... so there's sure to be a major weather event.
 
Anybody thinking perhaps Monday, March 21? :shock: Several WFOs putting in some strong wording about "significant severe weather" and "strong tornadoes" and the SPC put a 25% line on the SWODY3 prob, and I have seen very few high risk days that were not preceded by a 25% line (max prob used 3 days out) on the SWODY3.
 
i'd say a mod. risk is almost certain in the new day 2 outlook, but i dont think this event will be the first high risk. with all of the WWA precp, there should be alot of cloud cover and limited daytime heating, so i think that will keep this event in the mod range and not high risk.
 
Originally posted by Ben Prusia
Looks like today is the day, down South, SPC indicated they will upgrade to HIGH risk for areas in LA.
SHHHH!

I say that the first high risk will be... April 11th, in the LA/MS area...

:lol:
 
Mike Peregrine, and Terry Kollmeyer seemed to be the closest, they were right on the day but the risk catagory given wasnt. By the way mike i hate that Burger King commercial. its the worst one they have ever produced but any way what ever floats your boat.
 
Well...I dunno if this really counts since the high risk only lasted one outlook.

BUSTIMUS MAXIMUS!

However, that didn't prevent somebody from being killed by being in the wrong place at the wrong time when straight-line winds blew over a tree in Jackson, Mississippi.

*** 1 FATAL *** TREE BLOWN OVER ON MAPLE STREET IN NORTHWEST JACKSON. THE TREE LANDED ON A MAN. (JAN) :(
 
Originally posted by Dan Cook
You still gonna update your database? :wink:

You bet. :wink: Later this week I'm planning a major update for it since I found a whole bunch of convective outlooks and PSWOs from the mid-1990s, including several for days that I had missed entirely.

August 27, 1994, for one: http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchi...082794otlk.html

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF MN..SERN SD..NRN IA..MUCH OF WI..AND UPPER MI.

Looked up that day in John Hart's database...seems there were 12 tornadoes across Wisconsin including 2 F3s, and 4 fatalities. Odd that I can't find any write-ups or information about that day in any of the WFO's event summaries sections. :?

Also got the outlook from the Palm Sunday outbreak earlier that year.
http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchi...032794otlk.html
 
August 27, 1994, for one: http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchi...082794otlk.html

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF MN..SERN SD..NRN IA..MUCH OF WI..AND UPPER MI.

Looked up that day in John Hart's database...seems there were 12 tornadoes across Wisconsin including 2 F3s, and 4 fatalities.

I believe one of those F3's passed just a few miles south of my house, through Foster, WI. Its one of the events that first got me interested in severe weather. Unfortunately it caused at least 2 of those fatalities.

Sorry for going off topic.
 
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