Joel Wright
EF5
Well, here we go again. Models have latched onto another bout of wintery weather for much of the central CONUS starting later monday night and lasting well into Christmas Eve.
Very strong warm air advection will commence over the midwest later on monday, and should induce widespread snow to develop over much of the midwest by early Tuesday morning. 850mb temps will increase quite a bit by later Tuesday introducing the possibility of sleet and freezing rain for areas south of I-80 in Illinois.
Initially snow to water ratios will be high, but as warmer air just above the surface advects in tuesday they will drop quite a bit. Right now it looks like eastern IA, the northern half of IL, southern WI, and northern IN are in the favorable location to see the heaviest WAA snows. GFS Model indicates a 0.50"+ QPF bullseye over northern/central IL by evening Tuesday. That could fluff up to 4-8" of snow quite easily given higher ratio snows that this event started with. Southern portions of this QPF bullseye will likely have sleet and or freezing rain to contend with though which would cut down on snowfall amounts.
If that weren't enough, a second wave of snows will move northward out of KS and MO very early Christmas Eve as a surface low moves northeast along the baroclinic zone. This doesn't look to be a particularly strong system, but will have the potential to lay another 3-6" layer of snows ontop of the earlier WAA snow.
Very strong warm air advection will commence over the midwest later on monday, and should induce widespread snow to develop over much of the midwest by early Tuesday morning. 850mb temps will increase quite a bit by later Tuesday introducing the possibility of sleet and freezing rain for areas south of I-80 in Illinois.
Initially snow to water ratios will be high, but as warmer air just above the surface advects in tuesday they will drop quite a bit. Right now it looks like eastern IA, the northern half of IL, southern WI, and northern IN are in the favorable location to see the heaviest WAA snows. GFS Model indicates a 0.50"+ QPF bullseye over northern/central IL by evening Tuesday. That could fluff up to 4-8" of snow quite easily given higher ratio snows that this event started with. Southern portions of this QPF bullseye will likely have sleet and or freezing rain to contend with though which would cut down on snowfall amounts.
If that weren't enough, a second wave of snows will move northward out of KS and MO very early Christmas Eve as a surface low moves northeast along the baroclinic zone. This doesn't look to be a particularly strong system, but will have the potential to lay another 3-6" layer of snows ontop of the earlier WAA snow.