Europe under a storm threat?

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Hello.

I was browsing through Ocean Prediction Center maps to check what will happen with low pressure area, what caused thunderstorms and tornadoes in USA during past few days and then I discovered, that low pressure area in Indiana will reach Canada's east coast by tomorrow. OPC has marked it as Developing storm. Now when we go to 48 hours forecast map, then OPC has marked it already as Developing hurricane force. And 96 hour forecast shows hurricane force 949 millibar cyclone near United Kingdom.

Any thoughts? Is this something I should keep my eye on it? I checked UK Met Office and they are expecting gale by Tuesday. If it is going to reach Estonia, then it there will be a day or two long lag(depends from the speed of the cyclone) between arriving to United Kingdom and Estonia.

 

[MatthewCarman]

If this does move out onto water and has hurricane force winds with it could they call it a hurricane or a nor easter? I am trying to figure out what they would call it.How comon is it for that part of the word to see storm's like this at this time of year? (Eroupe)

 

[Marko Korosec]

NW Europe had some pretty deep systems in this current autumn/winter period, some of them were also well below 940hPa with hurricane force winds. People from UK could tell you more since they are used to it, but I can tell you its not that rare thing to get such system in NNE Atlantic in this time of the year. Actually they're a bit more often this year than they were in the last two or three, thats why we're getting warm record breaking Sept-Jan period.

It does not seem anything too dangerous from these storms in next 7-10 days, GFS shows gusts 100-120km/h, but nothing more serious..

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

In Nordic countries, it could be possible have a name hurricane, because Estonian, Swedish and German (and probably more) languages have words in their vocabularies what allow it and mean "wind over 32,7 meters per second, can be called tropical cyclones in Atlantic Ocean"(with exception in German what has Hurrikan for tropical hurricanes and Orkan for hurricane force wind, not sure about Swedish) and nearest translation in English is "Hurricane".

Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute has already said in their weather forecast, that wind gusts will reach 45 miles per hour by Wednesday at the coastal areas and Islands. Winds pick up to 40 mph already on Monday. But I think that Monday's winds are caused by another cyclone. OPC weather map showed 970 mb gale force cyclone near Iceland. It will move East-Northeast, but in my opinion, it could influence Estonia too and start picking up winds tomorrow.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Just an update: I have reviewed OPC's weather maps and it shows that it will hit United Kingdom as Storm Force cyclone. That would explain why EMHI also forecasts only gale for Estonian coastal areas. 06Z OPC surface analysis has marked the cyclone as "Developing hurricane force"

 

[Peter Kirk]

If this does move out onto water and has hurricane force winds with it could they call it a hurricane or a nor easter?

It wouldn't be called either. I've not heard anyone call an extratropical low a "nor easter" apart from people in the USA.

Although as mentioned above I've heard Swedes call lows with hurricane force winds hurricanes although it is not really true.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Cyclone is now approaching my neck of the woods. Whole Estonia has been put under a storm warning, wind gusts are expected to exceed 60 miles per hour at the coast and water levels are expected to rise to critical levels in several coastal areas.

Situation is relatively calm yet, but reports are coming in that weather is already deteriorating across the country.

 

[Paul Knightley]

We expect 50-60mph wind gusts generally across the UK tomorrow, with 70mph in some exposed coastal locations. 80mph seems likely for western Scotland for a time, but these values are nothing particularly unusual.