effects on the big D

jeremy

I live in southern oklahoma and have alot of family in the Dallas metro area. If rita tracks a little west of say the Ft. Worth area, I would think the tornado/flood threat would be real in north Texas. I mean the possibilities are endless with this beast, a foot of rain or more in several urban areas including Dallas, Denton, Ft. Worth, tornados, and tropical storm force sustained winds. I may be looking at the the worst case scenario for the the Dallas/north Texas area, but what if?
 
As for the tornado threat, I think Rita could be a pretty big producer. The real tornado threat starts on SUN for the Houston area, and then Dallas/Ft. Worth perhaps by late MON or TUE.
 
It should be noted that some model guidance indicates the distinct possibility that Rita will stall (or move very slowly) across northern Texas. Given a baroclinic boundary, this situation could produce copious amounts of rainfall, and there may be a very significant inland flooding threat should this happen.

The 6z GFDL takes the center of Rita near Wichita Falls and northward across western Oklahoma. If this verifies, areas along and east of I35 could see a good tornado threat develop as Rita weakens to a depression.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
The 6z GFDL takes the center of Rita near Wichita Falls and northward across western Oklahoma. If this verifies, areas along and east of I35 could see a good tornado threat develop as Rita weakens to a depression.

That's what I'm hoping for. It's gonna screw things up regardless of the track, may as well go where I want it to for optimum tornado chances.
 
Effects on the Big D??

Well, Rita will still mess things up in Dallas if it stays on the same track. Sort of like the NY Giants do to the Cowboys when they come into town. (Sorry mod's I couldn't resist).

GO GIANTS!!
 
One local Meteorolgist in Waco,Texas placed the center of circulation just west of I-35 on saturday afternoon. If this happens we could be in for some prime tornado activity sometime late saturday or early sunday. The small town I live in is about 25 miles north of Waco, right in the middle of I-35. I actually think the bulk of the activity will be more east along I-45. Still not far for me to go if something pops! :D
 
This is an excerpt from a special weather statement issued early this evening by NWS Fort Worth:

IN NORTH TEXAS AS THE STORM APPROACHES WE EXPECT THE FOLLOWING
EFFECTS:

1. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN AS
WELL...AND MORE IS POSSIBLE IF RITA/S PATH PROVES FARTHER WEST THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A DROUGHT IN MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS...TOO MUCH RAIN LIKELY WILL FALL IN TOO SHORT A TIME
TO ALLOW SOILS TO SOAK UP THE RAINFALL. THUS...FLASH FLOODING MAY
RESULT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER FOR THIS
WEEKEND. SHOULD RITA STALL OR SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN NORTH TEXAS...A
WORST CASE SCENARIO...WELL OVER A FOOT OF RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE IN
SOME AREAS.

2. STRONG WINDS. EXPECT 40 TO 60 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN SQUALLS...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS...TO HILLSBORO...TO
ATHENS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN TREES...POWER LINES AND CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR INTERRUPTIONS IN
POWER SERVICE. ALSO REMEMBER...MOBILE HOMES OFTEN ROLL OVER DURING
PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS AND CAN EASILY BE DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES.
WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO 30 TO 40 MPH SUNDAY MORNING AS RITA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FELT OVER MOST
OF NORTH TEXAS. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SECURE
SMALL AND LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

3. A FEW TORNADOES. AS WITH ALL LANDFALLING HURRICANES...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

Full text of the statement here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview.ph...PSFWD&version=0
 
FWIW, for you DFW area residents- several friends have already reported lines at some of the local gas stations this evening. The missus went to do some routine shopping this evening (takes a lot to keep 3 kids happy and fed these days......) and she noted that the local Target had pretty much sold out all of their stock of bottled water.

Not sure if this is just prestorm hype and a jittery population after seeing some stark images for the last 3 weeks since Katrina, but I guess a little preparation wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.........
 
Originally posted by JP Santiago
FWIW, for you DFW area residents- several friends have already reported lines at some of the local gas stations this evening...the local Target had pretty much sold out all of their stock of bottled water.

Perhaps someone told them it was going to snow half an inch.

I grew up there, so I'm allowed to poke fun... :p
 
the GFDL model has rita stalling around the red river sunday and meandering around aimlessly. this could mean serious flooding! that stalled out boundry could really cause rita to give us some long term problems. in 1981 a tropical system interacted with a front stalled in about the same place and gave gainesville texas 24 inches of rain in 24 hours. needless too say they had to build an ark to get everyone out. we need the rain but not in biblical proportions. :shock:
 
Originally posted by Jeff Lawson+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Lawson)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-JP Santiago
FWIW, for you DFW area residents- several friends have already reported lines at some of the local gas stations this evening...the local Target had pretty much sold out all of their stock of bottled water.

Perhaps someone told them it was going to snow half an inch.

I grew up there, so I'm allowed to poke fun... :p[/b]
Half an inch? Shoot, that'll get us NBC 5 live team coverage as 24 reporters fan out all over the Metroplex to show the nation just how frickin' retarded this area gets when the mysterious white stuff falls out of the sky. Just the mere mention of flurries has everyone stocking up on canned beans and shotgun shells...............
 
Be cafeful with that remark about overreactions. Though i understand where you are coming from as i am in DFW now i am originally from FLA. FI thsi storm 'festers' and cycles above the metroplex we coudl actually see 60 sustained (maybe slighly more) and 100+ gusts, and possible 30 inches of rain. The lower lying areas would be greatly flooded. 30 inches might translate to 5 ft to 7 ft. of of fast running water (for a short while) if the rain falls fast and long enough. I have been through this twice before in FLA. Apartment complexes and houses in low lying areas will be basically wiped out to an extent. Trees will be vlown down, windows will be shattered out. Cars will be floating around (and into houses and buildings). It really depends on how long it 'might' linger and how much integrity the storm maintains over DFW - if in fact it does linger here. While i understand overreations in DFW concerning weather this is not snow we are taling about. It's a potential storm like DFW has never seen before. My guess is if it were to hit as a cat 2-3 we would see areas of total destruction (just like you see in Mississippi now), and other higher stading areas that are mostly ok.
 
I agree that flooding could be a huge problem, but I don't think a comparison to Florida is very apt. For one, Dallas-Fort Worth is a good 280 miles from the Gulf Coast, whereas just about any location in Florida is at the most 60 miles away from the water. Furthermore, whereas Florida is flat as flat can get, the area between Dallas-Fort Worth and the Gulf Coast is marked by a continuous rise in elevation with pockets of higher terrain. In other words, there's a lot more friction over Texas than Florida.

Honestly, for 60 mph sustained winds of any consequence (not to mention 100 mph gusts) to reach Dallas-Fort Worth, Rita would have to come onshore as a very fast moving Category 5 storm... and, even then, I'm not sure it could happen.
 
In regards to lines for gas in Dallas, I live in Dallas, and that appears to be a bit off the mark. There are no lines at any gas stations I have come across. As for water, I can only speak for my Target, but they are always out of bottled water. If you taste Dallas city water you'll understand why.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Lawson
I agree that flooding could be a huge problem, but I don't think a comparison to Florida is very apt. For one, Dallas-Fort Worth is a good 280 miles from the Gulf Coast, whereas just about any location in Florida is at the most 60 miles away from the water. Furthermore, whereas Florida is flat as flat can get, the area between Dallas-Fort Worth and the Gulf Coast is marked by a continuous rise in elevation with pockets of higher terrain. In other words, there's a lot more friction over Texas than Florida.

Honestly, for 60 mph sustained winds of any consequence (not to mention 100 mph gusts) to reach Dallas-Fort Worth, Rita would have to come onshore as a very fast moving Category 5 storm... and, even then, I'm not sure it could happen.

Agreed. The big potential issue for DFW will be intense flooding and that is nothingn to scoff at.
 
What about the social effects of the current mass exodus to Dallas? I-45 is all one-way traffic northbound for 100 miles out of Houston, and pretty much a parking lot from what I've seen. What happens when you transfer a large city into another large city? Might be a good idea to stock up on supplies in Dallas just in case we start running low by the weekend.
 
The eastward trend continues... The 12z GFS indicates landfall near Port Arthur / Sabine Pass, then stalling alon gthe TX/LA border. If this is the case, then I'd say the DFW area won't see a whole lot. Well, they'll probably see some rain, but it shouldn't be too bad I'd imagine. Those in extreme eastern TX and western/central LA could see incredible rainfall totals should the 12z GFS verify. Come early next week, the model progs the storm to shift southwestward into southern TX as ridging builds to the north. Also, without much in the way of forward motion, I think the non-landfall tornado risk has dropped a bit. It's relatively typical to see the maximum inland (not associated with the eyewall) tornado threat develop the two or two after landfall (as has been discussed several times here). Withouth much forward motion, I don't think there will be much juxtaposition of moderate/strong instability and the favorable shear to the east of the storms path. Just my 2 cents.
 
Dallas

I live in Dallas and am wondering what to expect and the effects of this storm in our area. It seems that it may more more easterly but at this point we really don't have any idea if we're just going to see some rain or anything worse. Anyone have any current predictions?

No gas lines here although alot of people were filling up yesterday and have been discussing it at work. They're also getting emergency supplies which I think may be jumping the gun. Honestly, people need to quit coming to Dallas during these disasters. We're fully booked up! The traffic is bad, so is the smog.

No more room! Keep going north to oklahoma
 
Re: Dallas

Originally posted by girltx983
I live in Dallas and am wondering what to expect and the effects of this storm in our area. It seems that it may more more easterly but at this point we really don't have any idea if we're just going to see some rain or anything worse. Anyone have any current predictions?

No gas lines here although alot of people were filling up yesterday and have been discussing it at work. They're also getting emergency supplies which I think may be jumping the gun. Honestly, people need to quit coming to Dallas during these disasters. We're fully booked up! The traffic is bad, so is the smog.

No more room! Keep going north to oklahoma


Currently it looks like we may escape the heavy rains and winds, as it is forecast to slowly move over areas to our east..e.g. East Texas/LA. Here is the latest Special Weather Statement from the NWS office in Ft. Worth and what to expect from this storm:

CLICK HERE

Things could change with a slight deviation! I'm also in the DFW area and was looking forward to some nice soaking rains. It's been way too dry lately.
 
i think dallas north along i-35 and to the east could be in for some major flooding problems. the models are picking up on a major stall around the red river area. think i'll give noah a call and see if he's still in the business. :roll:
 
Re: Dallas

Originally posted by girltx983
I live in Dallas and am wondering what to expect and the effects of this storm in our area. It seems that it may more more easterly but at this point we really don't have any idea if we're just going to see some rain or anything worse. Anyone have any current predictions?

No gas lines here although alot of people were filling up yesterday and have been discussing it at work. They're also getting emergency supplies which I think may be jumping the gun. Honestly, people need to quit coming to Dallas during these disasters. We're fully booked up! The traffic is bad, so is the smog.

No more room! Keep going north to oklahoma

I sure hope you are not serious. Not only do we have locals who HAVE to evacuate, we have Katrina evacuees (still hundreds of thousands in the area) who see Armageddon coming AGAIN and are fleeing. They are sending those from Beaumont and vicinity up 45 too now.
Next time Dallas takes a natural disaster hit, remember this. How would you like it you had to flee to Houston and got this reception?
:roll:
 
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