Dr. Gray Slams Gore

[Mike Theiss]

I had respect for Dr. Gray until he came out in public and slammed Al Gore. Are you kidding me ? What does Dr. Gray think he is ? God ? It's amazing how he blew the 2006 Hurricane Season so badly and now he has the balls to come out publicly and slam Gore. I do believe there is a natural cycle of the earth warming and cooling but I also believe that humans are responsible for speeding up the warming cycle and I also believe the cooling cycle will not come back and the earth will continue to warm because of what humans are doing (Deforestation, Carbon Emissions, etc...) I think Dr. Gray is lucky he was not slammed more after last year when he blew the forecast, Badly ! Ok, one might say he didn't know there was going to be an El Nino so that is why his forecast was so far off. Well, If he claims to know so much he should have seen the El Nino coming and factored that in. It's amazing to me how Dr. Gray became so famous and well known for his Hurricane forecasts. The whole thing is a joke. Mother Nature is going to do whatever the hell she wants and no one can predict accurately months out how many hurricane will develop and how many of those will be major's. Come on ! Heck, I could make a forecast right now for the 2008 Hurricane season and it will be as accurate as his. I think in 2008 there will be 13 Hurricanes of which 3 will be majors. There you go. It took me 1 minute to gather my data for my prediction and I bet it will be as accurate as his considering it's all a crap shoot anyway. And then when we are into the middle of August and we only see one Hurricane so far I will revise my prediction down to 10 hurricanes 2 of which will be major. That's what he does. He revises as he goes and to me it's as accurate as playing the numbers of an average season. I have always read all his findings and reports with an open mind just as I did with Al Gore's movies. And if I had to choose who is more accurate I would choose Al Gore. Yea, he's only a politician but he is working with many scientists and meteorologists who have the knowledge to make these claims and he is using his political power to get the scientists voices heard. He is most worthy of the Nobel Peace prize and it's a shame Dr. Gray had to come out and say these things when he makes more bogus claims than anywhere out there.

 

[Greg Neuman]

I had respect for Dr. Gray until he came out in public and slammed Al Gore. Are you kidding me ? What does Dr. Gray think he is ? God ? It's amazing how he blew the 2006 Hurricane Season so badly and now he has the balls to come out publicly and slam Gore.

How was Al's 2006 hurricane prediction?

 

[Mike Theiss]

How was Al's 2006 hurricane prediction?

As accurate as Bill Gray's. I don't recall Al Gore giving specific numbers of exactly how many hurricanes will occur. He only stated that IF this warming continues will we see stronger Hurricanes. And we are! This year we had back to back Cat 5 hurricanes make landfall but the US news didn't pick up on it becuase if it's not hitting the US they don't care.

One thing scientist say will happen is we will see extremes. One being extreme drought which will result in lakes drying up. I spent a lot of my life at our around Lake Okeechobee and it is hurting Bad ! Lots of canals have completely dried up and this is also happening in Georgia and other lakes in the South-East. This is only one example of many extremes currently happening around the world.

 

[Marc Remillard]

Why can't you believe it? How long of a period are you referring to when you say "past cycles"

Did you watch Gore's documentary?

No, there is no records that go back enough in the past to get details , but as mentioned in Gore's documentary, some scientists found a way to get the amount of CO2 in the ice, and in this ice you can see layers of ice, showing progression year by year (not too sure about the exact terms here, but those who watched Gore's documentary should know what I'm talking about)

According to the CO2 amount in the past, we can clearly see some natural cycles. Some are bigger and some are smaller than another. BUT, if you look from the begginning of industrialisation, the amount of CO2 in air is amazing, and it's not going down!

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/20000yearsbig.gif

http://www.mongabay.com/images/external/2005/co2_var.jpg

How do you explain this huge upward curve?

 

[Robert Dewey]

How do you explain this huge upward curve?

I won't explain it... Why? Because my answer can't be proven right or wrong, so it really doesn't matter. I'm neutral on the subject. I know that coincidences happen, and I know the Earth has had cooling cycles in the past (which implies a warming at some point). For perspective, 400K years is only 0.008 percent of the Earth's entire lifecycle - that leaves a rather significant gap, which is where my uncertainty comes in.

I also know that humans are generating a large amount of CO2, cutting away at the forests, and generally polluting the land we live in... which needs to stop.

I think GW is just one of those things that will have multiple solid theories, but no real answer. With that said, I'm all for cleaning up the Earth "just in case" GW is anthropogenic... but I'm not confident enough to invest billions or trillions into a global infrastructure change.

 

[fplowman]

Meteorologists study the atmosphere.

Politicians lobby for causes that enrich them and or their corporate constituents.

I guess the role has been reversed here? William Gray is trying to perpetuate some cause?

Al Gore is a fun loving well meaning guy who is just for purposes of benevolence is trying to save the world from self destruction.

Al Gore is lobbying for a cause. Or wait maybe it is William Gray.

Something I have learned is to follow the $$$. Global warming will be and is becoming a scheme to tax each and every individuals energy consumption down to making toast in the morning with a toaster.

edit: IMO Dr. Gray has EARNED the right to refute AL Gore's contentions.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

I won't explain it... Why? Because my answer can't be proven right or wrong, so it really doesn't matter. I'm neutral on the subject. I know that coincidences happen, and I know the Earth has had cooling cycles in the past (which implies a warming at some point). For perspective, 400K years is only 0.008 percent of the Earth's entire lifecycle - that leaves a rather significant gap, which is where my uncertainty comes in.

I also know that humans are generating a large amount of CO2, cutting away at the forests, and generally polluting the land we live in... which needs to stop.

I think GW is just one of those things that will have multiple solid theories, but no real answer. With that said, I'm all for cleaning up the Earth "just in case" GW is anthropogenic... but I'm not confident enough to invest billions or trillions into a global infrastructure change.

So you believe that we are increasing CO2 levels beyond the norm but you do not believe for sure that is affecting temperatures beyond the norm?

edit: and I wonder how much it will cost if some of the predictions about some of the side effects come true? We might not only be counting the billions or trillions of dollars in economic loss but maybe millions and millions of lives as well.

 

[Robert Dewey]

So you believe that we are increasing CO2 levels beyond the norm but you do not believe for sure that is affecting temperatures beyond the norm?

Yep. Bingo. (had to add bingo, or else my post was too short )

As for gambling billions or trillions on the theory that millions of lives could be lost is senseless. What if we invested billions and trillions during the "SARS" outbreak that was taking the world by storm?

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Can anybody here tell me why the global average temperature dropped from 1940-1980??? If you're going to claim natural variation on that, then explain to me how you can't take the most recent warming trend and label it natural variation.
A simple fact that never gets mentioned is that we are coming out of an ice age. It is supposed to be getting warmer. It's like taking a baseline temperature in January and then freaking out when it's warmer in July. No kidding it's warmer, we're coming out of winter. Not that that accounts for all the warming, but some degree of warming should be expected and I don't think anybody here, or anywhere else for that matter is smart enough and knowledgeable enough to tell me what exactly is causing the warming. Also keep in mind that we are talking about 1 degree over the last century. It's not like we're dealing with huge temperature swings.
I agree that Dr. Gray has earned the right to criticize anybody in his field of study. He definitely has the credentials to criticize Gore. I would bet Gore couldn't pass an intro. level test on meteorology, yet he's considered an expert on the subject. Gore's predictions on hurricanes have been just as far off as Grays, if not more so. I don't see anybody else coming forward with accurate long range hurricane forecasts. I don't know how you criticize somebody for not accomplishing something that nobody else has managed to accomplish either. You're going to botch forecasts from time to time. We all do it.

 

[bill mudd]

----------------either way on warming---------------

but, how can we loose by burning less fossil fuels?
is anyone here prepared to prove that fossil fuels are renewing them selves?
why would conservation of energy ever be BAD?

 

[Mike Theiss]

I don't see anybody else coming forward with accurate long range hurricane forecasts. I don't know how you criticize somebody for not accomplishing something that nobody else has managed to accomplish either. You're going to botch forecasts from time to time. We all do it.

The reason nobody else has attempted making long range Hurricane forecasts is it is impossible. This is like if I said next tornado season there will be 138 tornadoes and of those 3 will be EF-5's. It is impossible to predict this. Hell, when a Hurricane has already formed we can't accurately predict how strong it will be in 12 hours and NHC admits this. Yes, we can see factors (Shear, Warm Waters, Land interactions, etc.) that MIGHT affect it one way or another but in the end Hurricanes continue to change the rules and do things they are not supposed to in our understanding. Humberto is a great example with his fast strengthening. We could not see that coming 12 hours in advance so how the heck can we say 4 months in advance that there will be X amount of hurricanes and predict their strength? We can't period.

I hear a lot of people saying GW is made up to make money, Blah Blah Blah. No, the real money being made is by the people who are fighting it, Oil Companies, Refineries, Factories, etc... I don't see what the harm is in cleaning up the earth and lowering carbon emissions. Worst case scenario if GW is 100% natural and humans are not contributing at all then at least we will be cleaning the earth and making it a healthier environment to live. If we all unite to do everything we can to clean up the earth then not only will we be helping with GW but we may see Cancer statistics go down from breathing cleaner air and other positive effects.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I hear a lot of people saying GW is made up to make money, Blah Blah Blah. No, the real money being made is by the people who are fighting it, Oil Companies, Refineries, Factories, etc... I don't see what the harm is in cleaning up the earth and lowering carbon emissions. Worst case scenario if GW is 100% natural and humans are not contributing at all then at least we will be cleaning the earth and making it a healthier environment to live. If we all unite to do everything we can to clean up the earth then not only will we be helping with GW but we may see Cancer statistics go down from breathing cleaner air and other positive effects.

I think this is the best way to approach GW as a whole. I personally think that we definitely have to be having an impact on Earth's climate because of the amount of emissions we are putting into the air that wouldn't otherwise be there. Does that mean we're gonna destroy the earth within a generation or two? Not sure, but I do know that if we took the initiative now to clean up things and try to improve our planet we live on we would then definitely not be hurting anything by doing our part.

I really wish this Global Warmifying would quit messing with the Tornado season in Oklahoma though...kinda getting old now being a dead zone in tornado alley

 

[Brian Emfinger]

Can anybody here tell me why the global average temperature dropped from 1940-1980??? If you're going to claim natural variation on that, then explain to me how you can't take the most recent warming trend and label it natural variation.
A simple fact that never gets mentioned is that we are coming out of an ice age. It is supposed to be getting warmer. It's like taking a baseline temperature in January and then freaking out when it's warmer in July. No kidding it's warmer, we're coming out of winter. Not that that accounts for all the warming, but some degree of warming should be expected and I don't think anybody here, or anywhere else for that matter is smart enough and knowledgeable enough to tell me what exactly is causing the warming. Also keep in mind that we are talking about 1 degree over the last century. It's not like we're dealing with huge temperature swings.
I agree that Dr. Gray has earned the right to criticize anybody in his field of study. He definitely has the credentials to criticize Gore. I would bet Gore couldn't pass an intro. level test on meteorology, yet he's considered an expert on the subject. Gore's predictions on hurricanes have been just as far off as Grays, if not more so. I don't see anybody else coming forward with accurate long range hurricane forecasts. I don't know how you criticize somebody for not accomplishing something that nobody else has managed to accomplish either. You're going to botch forecasts from time to time. We all do it.

The current temperatures are slightly above what most people would consider the natural cycle. The temperature situation is not the one we should be focused on though. The CO2 level increases are not part of a natural cycle. So the temperature today may not be that much above normal but as the C02 levels continue to rise then the warming will accelerate. Throw in some chaos theory type issues like the large amounts of methane hydrate frozen underneath the seabed and the risk seems to large to me to ignore or put off till later. The earth is probably a lot more fragile (at least as far as our comfort level) than we want to believe.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Even though I'm extremely unimpressed about his group's skill over the years in seasonal hurricane predictions, Dr. Gray has certainly earned the right to engage in healthy scientific debates, even on global climate issues.

Lately he has not chosen to contribute to scientific debate. His recent talks have basically boiled down to ad hominem attacks and paranoid conspiracy theories about widespread scientist fraud and accused anyone not on his side of having a personal/political agenda. His arguments recently have had little or nothing to do with the science involved.

Personally, I'm not at all interested or scientifically persuaded by political arguments by Gray against Gore (to his credit, Gore is staying above it by not dignifying with a response). I am much more interested in Gray vs. scientific reality, and it has been shown on Realclimate and other sites that most of Gray's "scientific" arguments on GW are very confused, unstructured, inconsistent, frequently changing, and thoroughly (and easily) debunked.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

The reason I think Gore is a fool is because he whines that people should decrease their carbon footprint, but is completely hypocritical on the subject.

Forgive me if this seems naive, but I think it's a similar situation to a sports team. A bunch of players have to get out there and get the job done, but somebody has to be the one to straighten out their errors when they don't see them, inspire a change in attitude and exhort them to win when they don't think it's possible (or necessary). So while the players are expected to execute a successful game plan that the manager has come up with by employing a variety of detailed athletic graces, no one expects the manager to be able to throw a 94 mph four seamer, then hit a home run and thereafter leg out a sac bunt. For this reason, the manager's time and energy is spent on study, planning and smart usage of his people skills, and the refined experential sense of how to play a hunch.

Without a manager, no team goes to a playoff. But no one expects the manager to do all the things he is expecting the players to do. Both components are mutual co-necessities.

How would it be possible to reach a worldwide audience with any serious concept if one was limited to phone calls, making home videos, putting them on the internet, and bicycling to in-county meetings? It takes funding, travel, endless production and promotion; all of these things consume energy and create waste. But how else could one who believes fully in the message he carries cut through the fog of commercial herding and meaningless entertainment--not to mention the headwinds created by well-funded and equally belief-driven opposition--that enshrouds the contemporary human?