Disapperance of Artic sea ice

[Rocky Rascovich]

Okay... your probably saying "oh no... more global warming crap here on ST" ... but some rather alarming statistics was released this last week from several news sources from around the world. Below is the latest release from the AP

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hU5CoGrg6q9-gg3YfryNK1RfMKPQ

Here is another story with a satellite picture: http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEMYTC13J6F_planet_0.html


Now then, to all the folks out there that think all of the hoopla about global warming is hype... what can you say about this? I still believe alot of whats going on is largely cyclical... solar output, ocean currents... etc.
Yes... I will also agree to a limited extent that man has something to do with this as well.... but according to these articles, this is happening alot faster than expected.

I greatly fear that our winters as we know them will be a thing of the past in a few short years. With the Artic ocean become more ice free, would'nt that greatly impede the build up of those frigid air masses? Does the main source of these air masses originate over the northern continental areas of Canada or northern Siberia? How do you think this will influence our winters in the coming years?

Interestingly, it seems we're getting more extreme cold events early in the season. Yesterday morning for example, 18F in Embarrass, MN. For Sept. 15th, that is definitely impressive.

Anyway... if you care to beat this global warming hoprse one more time, it will be interesting to read some of the feedback on this.

Rocky&family
_________________
Edit: I just noticed the thread that Matthew Carman started back in mid Aug. If the moderator cares to move this to his thread... thats fine.

 

[MatthewCarman]

This is a natural cycle of earth. The mediveal times experienced a big warm period and they thought that would never change. What happened? A small ice age occured that lasted for decades and brought extreme cold temparatures and killed hundreds of thousunds from famines. (Also to mention the bubonic plague did not help this as around 25% of Europes population died) The earth was very warm before this ice age. Indians could take a canoe across the ocean to scotland. Then the ice age came and some people never saw a summer. June and July for some areas one year had 2 feet of snow and many many farmers starved. (These facts from DC's "little iceage")

So I do think this is just a natural cycle of the earth. We are most likely warming up the earth to a extent but there is no proof to say we are the only or main cuase of earth's warm up. There is also know way of knowing for sure how the little ice age started and if it will happen again but I think it could.

 

[B Ozanne]

Did anyone see the Wall Street Journal article last week saying that most science is wrong?

Not necessarily completely wrong, but the article said more than 50% of all scientific research contains multiple errors.

If you're thinking what does the Wall Street Journal know about science, I can put that fear to rest. WSJ not only produces world class business articles but they cover many topics better than anybody else. Plus, who better to question science than a newspaper that has nothing to gain from the article.

On another note, who's to say the scientist doing the research about bad science didn't make mistakes himself.

 

[beaudodson]

Meanwhile...
http://stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=13696

 

[Mike Smith]

Now then, to all the folks out there that think all of the hoopla about global warming is hype... what can you say about this?

There is an alternate explanation of the melting sea ice and that is soot from China. Some research has been done that shows the soot has darkened the polar ice which has caused it to melt at an accelerating rate -- which would occur even if temperatures cooled slightly.

So,

#1. It is possible the melting polar ice has little or nothing to do with any trend in temperature.

#2. Even if it is due to warming temperatures (or in combination with pollution), it is not unprecedented. I am always amused when it is claimed the ice is at "record" low levels when the "record" only goes to 1979.

I wouldn't lose much sleep over the melting arctic ice at this point when, as Beau points out, the Antarctic ice mass is gaining.

Mike

 

[Mike Smith]

Did anyone see the Wall Street Journal article last week saying that most science is wrong?

Here is an excerpt from the Wall Street Journal's "Science Journal" column. The most interesting finding, to me, is that results are almost never replicated, a key aspect of the scientific method. By the way, I have corresponded to the author, Robert Lee Hotz, and he is an AWG believer:

Most Science Studies Appear to Be Tainted By Sloppy Analysis
September 14, 2007; Page B1

We all make mistakes and, if you believe medical scholar John Ioannidis, scientists make more than their fair share. By his calculations, most published research findings are wrong.

Dr. Ioannidis is an epidemiologist who studies research methods at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece and Tufts University in Medford, Mass. In a series of influential analytical reports, he has documented how, in thousands of peer-reviewed research papers published every year, there may be so much less than meets the eye.

These flawed findings, for the most part, stem not from fraud or formal misconduct, but from more mundane misbehavior: miscalculation, poor study design or self-serving data analysis. "There is an increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims," Dr. Ioannidis said. "A new claim about a research finding is more likely to be false than true."

The hotter the field of research the more likely its published findings should be viewed skeptically, he determined.

Take the discovery that the risk of disease may vary between men and women, depending on their genes. Studies have prominently reported such sex differences for hypertension, schizophrenia and multiple sclerosis, as well as lung cancer and heart attacks. In research published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association, Dr. Ioannidis and his colleagues analyzed 432 published research claims concerning gender and genes.

Upon closer scrutiny, almost none of them held up. Only one was replicated.

Statistically speaking, science suffers from an excess of significance. Overeager researchers often tinker too much with the statistical variables of their analysis to coax any meaningful insight from their data sets.

"People are messing around with the data to find anything that seems significant, to show they have found something that is new and unusual," Dr. Ioannidis said.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I think it was in the Swiss Alps they found a mine with tools where once a glacier. What does that tell you? It tells me that area was once warm and not a glacier.

Our records do not go back very far. Mediveal time period had a very warm era. How do we know that era was not warmer than this and that there was even less ice then? Then came the little ice age that lasted for decades. It is inpossible to tell if man is contributing to global warming. In theory we could be and in theory it could also just be the natural life cycle of earth or it could be other reasons.

As Beaudodson showed

The Southern Hemisphere sea ice area has broken the previous maximum of 16.03 million sq. km and is currently at 16.26 million sq. km. This represents an increase of about 1.4% above the previous SH ice area record high. The observed sea ice record in the Southern Hemisphere (1979-present) is not as long as the Northern Hemisphere. Prior to the satellite era, direct observations of the SH sea ice edge were sporadic.

What do you say about that?

Are you on the Al Gore and Weather Channel/Dr. Hiedi Cullen band wagon? I am not. I do not believe this and I not think it is right that they try to over hype this up to be more than it is.

 

[mike scantlin]

glaciers move carman.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I believe the earth is going through a warming phase, but I have a hard time believing all the hyp that people are pushing. Get ALL of the politicians out of science and then I'll believe what is said about it because the scientists wont be under influence from politicians or special interests. Until then, its a no go for me. Sorry

 

[Shane Adams]

I don't deny any of the scientific evidence that's obvious. I just don't think it's interesting, newsworthy, or life-altering. Basically, IMO global warming is just another fact of the planet, like rain forests or hurricanes or the monsoon. The earth cycles as it always has. It's just that now Man is here in his infinite wisdom/arrogance to make a mountain out of a mole hill. Color me head-in-the-sand if you wish (a favorite opinion of many thinkers/scientist types) but I just don't find it anything worth losing sleep over.

 

[B Ozanne]

Marcus Aurelius: "The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."

Just think of the alternative to global warming. Now that should keep you awake at night.

60 Minutes dragged a reporter down to Chile or Argentina to report on how fast a tidal glacier was retreating. His big argument was that these glaciers have been around for 10,000+ years and now they will be gone in 300 years. He failed to mention that 10,000 years ago the glaciers were part of an ice cap more than a mile thick that occupied large parts of the globe. What's left now are little ice cubes and they always appear to melt fastest right at the end.

 

[beaudodson]

I don't deny any of the scientific evidence that's obvious. I just don't think it's interesting, newsworthy, or life-altering. Basically, IMO global warming is just another fact of the planet, like rain forests or hurricanes or the monsoon. The earth cycles as it always has. It's just that now Man is here in his infinite wisdom/arrogance to make a mountain out of a mole hill. Color me head-in-the-sand if you wish (a favorite opinion of many thinkers/scientist types) but I just don't find it anything worth losing sleep over.

Agree...

Unfortunately, no matter what happens from here on out the environmentalists are going to blame global warming. If we suddenly shift to an ice age then they will blame global warming. It is like trying to prove or disprove the existence of God. It can't be done. Global warming is going to end up the same way. Everything from here on out will be because of mankind and global warming.

We will all be SICK of hearing about this subject (if you aren't already).

 

[B Ozanne]

Agree...
It is like trying to prove or disprove the existence of God. It can't be done. Global warming is going to end up the same way. Everything from here on out will be because of mankind and global warming.

We will all be SICK of hearing about this subject (if you aren't already).

Russell's Teapot? Look it up.

 

[MatthewCarman]

How can a glacier on land move? The Swiss Alps is a mountainus area. Please correct me if I am wrong but I always thought a glacier had to be on water to move? My point was a glacier melted away leaving a old mine with man made tools.

 

[beaudodson]

Russell's Teapot? Look it up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell's_teapot