Dangerous Hurricane Frances

but in here a normal conversation can be carryout without have to put a forecast in your discussion also.....

I for one would recomend to anyone heading to Florida, If you have never chased a Hurricane before Francis is not one to begin with unless you are riding shotgun with a well experianced hurricane chaser.

This is not one to be played with
 
but in here a normal conversation can be carryout without have to put a forecast in your discussion also.....

I for one would recomend to anyone heading to Florida, If you have never chased a Hurricane before Francis is not one to begin with unless you are riding shotgun with a well experianced hurricane chaser.

This is not one to be played with

Much agreed. This is not the hurricane to cut your teeth on. She is one mean ombre and looking meaner by the day.
 
The rest of us taxpayers can look forward to paying for all of the multi-$$$ homes built on those outter banks over the coming months ... I guess they wonder why we would build a house in tornado alley and we wonder why they would build one on a pile of sand. Meanwhile none of us understand why people even try to live in so. California.
 
No forecast posts are allowed except in Target Area (including links to forecasting resources). The moderators have instructions to delete posts that violate the rule.

Due to the significance of the storm we will allow this thread to stand as long as it pertains to news about who's chasing and where, how the media is handling it, emergency management aspects, posts about relatives, economic implications, and so forth. However no discussion about wind speeds, storm surges, forecast tracks, storm structure, and intensity trends will be permitted here except as a passing reference. Everyone has posting privileges in Target Area now, and that's the place for discussion about these aspects.

This rule will apply to any other Frances threads that start in this section.

Tim
 
No problem, tim -

Was just concerned that the forecast thread was becoming more and more cluttered with useless posts that have nothing to do with forecasting and wanted a place to keep the chit-chat -

Will be careful not to post any forecast-related items here.
 
Well, I don't think those links were useful for specifically forecasting Frances - but your the boss.....

Seems only fair then though that the Target area noise be cleaned out as well....

[edit] ok, I see you have expanded your earlier rules. [/edit]
Glen
 
In light of Tim's post, let me post some URLs maintained by the Weathervine stormchasers as they prepare to intercept Frances in the next 36 hours:

Weathervine main blog:

http://www.bnvn.com/weathervine/blog/vineblog.html

Jason Foster's blog:

http://www.onlinejason.net/hurricane/franc.../frances04.html

Chris Collura:

http://www.sky-chaser.com/

These are accounts of their activities while in preparation for intercept as opposed to forecasting, though they obviously discuss their impressions of the track. They may have the ability to maintain their internet access during much of the storm and afterwards through the use of the Sprint Merlin card, which was operational during the entire landfall of Charley.

An interesting aspect unfortunately for these chasers is that their homes are in the path and they have had to combine chase op preparation with securing their family and property. Best of luck and safety to all the chasers in the path of dangerous Frances this week.
 
Over the weekend one of those ET like shows showed an island that is private that have multi-million dollar homes bought by the stars. There was maybe a 2 foot difference from the water level and front yards. I would think if not the winds the surge would sure get them...

They didn't really show the outline area of the surronding area so there might be some type of barrier away from the island..
 
At least when we chase out here none of us usually have to worry about boarding up our families' homes before we go ... good grief ... that must put a whole new light on the subject for these guys -
 
They didn't really show the outline area of the surronding area so there might be some type of barrier away from the island..

This has been a huge problem in North Carolina ... the barriers have eroded with all the storms - and now the beach is eroding. They actually had to move the Hatteras lighthouse back away from its previous location because the beach had eroded so badly over the years and there were fears that the lighthouse would just fall into the ocean.

http://www.nps.gov/caha/lrp.htm
 
It will be interesting to see how the insurance industry bounces back as yet another hurricane aims for the coast. There is already chatter in the insurance industry of problems from Charley:

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/south...09/02/45494.htm

Of course, Florida does have a disaster fund to help out the insurance industry following the aftermath of Andrew, to the sum of ~ 15 billion.

http://www.fldfs.com/Companies/FHCF.htm

Not sure how much of a hit this fund took from Charlie - but even this may not save all insurers if the gold coast is heavily impacted.

Glen
 
It's also interesting how this news is taking away attention from the Republican National Convention.... and the storm is of course affecting Florida. What a strange twist.

Tim
 
It's also interesting how this news is taking away attention from the Republican National Convention.... and the storm is of course affecting Florida. What a strange twist.

Tim

In West Palm Beach, folks have been asked to take down all political signs, etc....

http://www.pbcgov.com/PubInf/News_Room/09-...01-04_signs.htm

Given how critical Florida will be to both candidates - expect an overwhelming flood of federal aid is already in route. In fact, I just found this link....

http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=13721

Glen
 
The Bahamas island of San Salvador is about to get ripped with a direct hit. That's where Columbus first landed in the New World, FWIW. I would not want to be there right now.
 
I was just listening to Rush and he said an email he received form a meterologist friend of his, that because the pressure has gone up and the winds died a bit, it shows signs that the storm is weakening. I can only imagine that there might be other meterologist or news sites that will report the same thing. Is this something they want to be telling people that are already fleeing? I just don't get it.
 
Median property value map in the target area. Not that we should necessarily care more about the more expensive property, but the path of the storm as related to property value does tend to shape the economic impact of the storm. Once this gets closer and time permits I'll try to do a 2000 map (requires more time & datasets).

A better measure would probably be total value, but I don't have access to those stats.

Click to enlarge.
[Broken External Image]:[URL]http://www.stormtrack.org/valuex.gif[/url]
 
Tim, the "Click to enlarge" thing doesn't work...

EDIT: Must be this browser... The status bar shows the image location, and the alt text (Click to see full image) shows up fine... I just can't click on it ... Instead of acting as a link pic, it acts like a regular image file, as IE's "Image toolbar" pops up. Oh well, I'm assuming it's just this comp. Works file with another browser (Moz). And yes, I'm clicking the image, not the text... :)
 
I was just listening to Rush and he said an email he received form a meterologist friend of his, that because the pressure has gone up and the winds died a bit, it shows signs that the storm is weakening. I can only imagine that there might be other meterologist or news sites that will report the same thing. Is this something they want to be telling people that are already fleeing? I just don't get it.

Apart from the obvious (...now the blathering a.h. consders himself a certified meteorologist? Wow, I guess he REALLY does know everything! :roll: ) it does seem out of place for lay media personalities to speculate on situations like this. Of course it happens all the time. I remember a ditzy Santa Barbara area newscaster/model speculating that "the fire looks to be under control; the houses behind me should be safe." Half an hour later, the whole area looked like Tokyo after an incindiary raid. :oops: Just report what you know, guys.... ;)

Without knowing exactly what he said, I hope anyone listening will understend that storms naturaly wax and wane as they travel. I sure wouldn't alter my evacuation plans for anything short of an official NWS/NHC statement.

-Greg
 
(Jeff - The click thing seems to work fine... check to see if your browser is disallowing popups, as it needs to spawn a new window)
 
My maternal grandparents used to live in Boca Raton, FL and I remember visiting them - one of the most wealthy areas in Florida, as well as for many miles north and south of there. Huge homes, all with pools, and many many people with nice cars, etc, etc. If this thing were to come ashore around Vero Beach or WPB...the financial losses would be extreme, to say the least. The good news is that I'm sure at least these people have the resources to go stay elsewhere and rebuild - contrasted to where andrew plowed through (i.e. trailer parks, less wealthy areas, etc.). At this point I'm more inclined to say I'd rather this hurricane plow through an area filled with wealthy people that don't die rather than less wealthy people who die (human life is more important than monetary losses always).
 
CNN reports that a preliminary damage prediction of $10 billion to $35 billion has been issued by a insurance industry group. The estimate was issued by Risk Management Solutions, a firm that does catastrophe modeling and estimates for the insurance industry.
 
An important question:

I have relatives that live in Spring Hills (Hernando County), Florida. What will Frances do to that area?

:( :shock:

Back up and read the earlier post from Tim. In short - this is a forecast question - so it can't be addressed here - nor should it be asked.

Glen
 
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