Chasing

[Zach]

What are the chances of any good chasing this fall in the southern plains?

 

[rdale]

Experts say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of chasing, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Here's a good thread on the subject posted here a number of years ago:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/sho...DO-SEASON-Does-It-Really-Exist-(Great-Plains)

 

[Shane Adams]

I'll let you know around Thanksgiving ;-)

 

[Matt Ashworth]

I'd like to if I have the resources, though I don't have high hopes.

 

[Kent Heiderich]

Saw my 1st tree uprooted by a suction vortices 11-19-1973 in Moore, Oklahoma. Big elm tree in our neighbors yard just went verticle as I was walking into our house next door. Yes the fall season can be exciting.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

I've scored twice in the fall. October 12 of last year I bagged 2 tors near Hale Center, TX, and scored once again on the November 7, 2011 in SW Oklahoma. That Nov setup was about as textbook as I'd seen a successful fall setup. I think many people that were there could vouch for that. So yes, it does exist. But it seems like for every 15-20 "good" setups in the Fall that the models flaunt around, only a couple ever do anything. Its just much more important that all the ingredients are there for it to happen. Its not like in May where you could have a some things lacking and still come up with a great day.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I remember back in October 2001 I caught a tornado near Foss Lake, OK....same day Cordell, OK got hit. There was also a nice tornado that went through SW OK in November 2011 as Marcus mentioned...so the possibilty is there.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Experts say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of chasing, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

So there's a 5% chance then?

I'm aware of the movie reference.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Patrick Marsh has done some amazing work on severe weather climatology recently. You should check his blog site, starting with this blog: http://www.pmarshwx.com/blog/2012/09/15/understanding-tornado-risk/ and moving on to other later blogs. His work is now featured on the SPC home page. In particular, check this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr. From there you can view 7-day time series of climatology for various types of severe weather for any location in the CONUS. Some select locations do see a small uptick in activity in the fall, but the general rule is that the likelihood of severe weather continues to decrease steadily through the fall (unless you want to chase in Dixie Alley).

It's difficult to say more than a week or so out whether there will be any one particular event that will produce severe weather. The good news is that the jet stream moves back south and more disturbances form, but the bad things are the frequent cold fronts that start to really wash out all land areas at the same time.

 

[mdstormchaser]

Experts say that Nordberg has a 50/50 chance of chasing, though there's only a 10 percent chance of that.

Am I the only one that found this funny???? I love it!! hahahaha

 

[rdale]

Most are too young to get the movie reference