Chaser convergence- getting even worse.

[Todd Lemery]

I do like Paul’s idea of keeping your position off until you are on the storm. I’m sure it could help a bit for at least a short while. I remember 2014 in Northern Texas where we were the only dot on a storm. The NWS stuck a tornado warning on it and literally within 1/2 hour there was a “string of pearls” heading there from every direction.
No matter what, we’ll still get swamped from the warning chasers at some point.

 

[Stephen Sponsler]

I honestly think the bulk of the mob just follows the crowd and have no idea what they are doing.

Seems to me to pretty much sum it up. Once the news gets out there is a potential tornado producing storm in the area, the masses come out with cell phones or whatever else and head in that 'general direction' and then just start to follow around whoever looks like they might know what they are doing. (Okay, it's a theory, that by appearances might be at least partially legit). That seemed to be the case on the Chapman day all along Highway 70 at every exit. Yokels galore, who might never have 'chased' their entire lives had plenty of time to get out - given how long it was on the ground (though the convergence in that situation was not 'impossible' (but at the exit ramps at times it was close). There was another situation in far NE Kansas along the Missouri River, I seem to recall it was 2009 , that the Weather Channel was calling impending disaster all morning long in their broadcasts (I saw them earlier at the motel in Nebraska airing)... the hordes were lined up down one hill and up the other as far as the eye could see. In one regard it seemed some were Chasing the TIV.

 

[ScottCurry]

Once the news gets out there is a potential tornado producing storm in the area, the masses come out with cell phones or whatever else and head in that 'general direction' and then just start to follow around whoever looks like they might know what they are doing.

Nothing wrong with this IMO. It might surprise you that not everybody on this forum is a chaser. We have discussed this before that there are three main categories of storm enthusiasts:

• Storm Spotter (reports to the NWS from their house)
• Mobile Spotter (travels around their county, but generally stays close to their home/work; reports to the NWS from wherever they are)
• Storm Chaser (travels across the country on multi-day trips)

Just look at the number of local people who never chase who attend Skywarn training. Lots of people are interested in the weather. It's an awesome show and very exciting to observe. And of course people want to take photos and video on their cell phones so that they can show their friends what they saw.

Locals also have a very important role to play in notifying their local NWS office of dangerous weather, especially 1" hail, high winds, and flooding (things storm chasers don't really care about, but can still cause damage to people, property, and animals).

I'm all for locals going to out to observe the weather. It's to be expected, and it's the number one reason most storm chasers don't like to chase near big cities. Besides, what makes any of us so special that we should be allowed to observe the weather, but locals shouldn't?

 

[Todd Lemery]

I’m not complaining, but wow! The convergence around Lake Altus Lugert today was something. Pretty much impossible to keep up with the storm....

 

[Quincy Vagell]

It shouldn't be that much of a surprise, but I felt that today was even worse than Tulia/Vigo Park. Right from a few miles from Mangum, traffic went to a screeching halt. I witnessed a few chaser car collisions and plenty of reckless driving/behavior. Cars pulling out into oncoming traffic, vehicles parked in the driving lanes, pretty much the usual stuff we see in favored target areas now. I even had the Tornado Tech team pass a bunch of cars, including myself, in a no passing, double yellow line section of road. Traffic was already going above the speed limit... I usually don't care about isolated instances, but now I'm starting to feel a push to call out bad actors on Twitter.

Anyway, once a sneaky hail core moved up toward Lone Wolf, the crowds slowly began to thin out a bit, but it was too late. I was on the Mangum storm right from Northwest Texas, but narrowly missed the tornado(es). I'm not complaining, it's just an observation. I knew I was taking a big risk to bail out on West Texas storms for a storm heading toward Oklahoma.

I will think twice about chasing a higher-end event in Oklahoma again. Today was madness. It should be expected with a high risk in Oklahoma in May with one semi-discrete supercell on the fringe of a very favorable parameter space. I had no consistent data connection for about an hour, as I was only able to get an occasional radar scan, but even that was a major challenge. I tried to livestream the chaser gridlock traffic multiple times, but never had enough reception. This was in an area with 3-4 bars of Verizon LTE. When you have hundreds of chasers in close proximity, running lots of gear, that's a major drain on the network.

I already thought that I was a bit of a risky chaser for sometimes picking the sleeper targets, but after this, I think I'll end up leaning toward alternate targets, by default.

 

[Alex Elmore]

I will think twice about chasing a higher-end event in Oklahoma again.

This was one of a few non-meteorological reasons as to why I did not chase today. I don't seem to have much luck with High Risks, and the concern of the possibility of just one or two dominant storms in OK on such a day was enough to deter me from heading out. I felt that if I was to make it through the crowds to see anything, the risk of getting hurt or worse by some idiot was still there and just not worth it. Obviously that is always a risk, but it was much higher today. I think this may be the first time I've ever sat a chase out for this reason. Even if the threat had materialized as forecasted earlier in the period, I wouldn't have had any regrets in not going out.

 

[Tony Laubach]

I stayed home today here in ICT... I've done enough high risks over the years where they seldom end well. The traffic has become a nightmare scenario and honestly it takes away so much focus on the weather. So many inexperienced or lack of experience people are chasing well above their skill level. I'm not just talking Meteorology, but experience navigating storms and being in the environment. These are not the days to try and get your first tornadoes. You're too focused on the weather and lacking the situational awareness.

There is no real solution, and yes, it IS problem. I've heard stories of folks unable to pursue the storm due to traffic. One day, this will become unable to escape. It is going to happen, it is only a matter of time. Crashes today because people aren't paying attention. You can't pull off to observe cause you'll never get back on unless you cut someone off. Then you get folks driving two-wheel drive low clearance sedans on muddy roads, and they clog those up. Folks, it is a problem, and one with no clear solution.

I have virtually no desire to get in on these high-end days outside of my home area. The stress level is way too high, and it is just scary to think about all the craziness that comes with these days. Especially in Oklahoma. I've probably legit chased there twice since the fire chief incident, and I think I have only done a couple chases there between that and El Reno.

Sadly, my answer is simply becoming not go... stay home. Easiest way to avoid the issue. And as far as the payoff goes on high risks, its typically low enough where I ultimately don't miss enough to change the philosophy.

Be safe all.

 

[Steve Carmel]

It got a lot more congested when I looked later on Monday afternoon.

 

[Chad Dunn]

It's not just you old hats. The hordes freak me out as well. I spend almost as much time trying to predict and avoid convergence as I do trying to track a cell because I don't want the problem and I don't want to be the problem.

I came out of Lubbock this morning and came at Paducah early because I knew they were working on highway 70 and I didn't want to get caught in that single lane mess. Once I got to Childress I was really concerned about how many folks I saw on 70 as the cell ramped up.

I straight gave up on the Magnum cell after I lost the lead when I took a wrong turn. I saw it get a serious case of measles on wX and decided to cut back on a second one at Hollis. Then I bailed on that one to try and get eyes on the Vernon cell before night fall. Had her to myself for a good 20 minutes out near Electra. It was so peaceful to be able to just watch it go without anyone else around. Eventually the horde caught up again, but those 20 minutes of solitude just feeling the wind and watching the lighting were the best part of the entire day.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Imagine the zoo if it was a weekend and a small highly concentrated threat area with no other storms. Remember a lot of chasers were not even in Oklahoma (including yours truly- got the Paducah tornado but bailed on the storm to play the dryline, unsuccessfully). I think I may join those that henceforth eschew the southern Plains on big days.

 

[Mikaela Norris]

I was down south in TX between I'd say I-20 and US-380 most of the day and I did come across others out there, but it was by no means convergence. It was just enough folks to feel a bit of camaraderie actually, especially when you kept seeing the same people over and over miles and hours apart. Sounds like it was the total opposite of what was going on farther north. I am very glad I didn't take a whole day to head up to OK. What ya'll have been saying about the Mangum storm convergence sounds super sketchy.

 

[Andrew Constans]

I'm concerned (as someone relatively new to chasing) that we're approaching a point of saturation and it may soon deter people who are serious about the hobby from participating as much. Short of the 5% days and more nuanced setups, it seems like every well-defined & forecasted target gets swarmed with traffic as soon as a warning pops up. I was down at Tulia and realized that even with the best intentions and safety in mind, I was part of that convergence. I put myself in a bad position not knowing how much that east-bound line would back up, and likewise I put others in a bad position when the line paused to let me in. I called it after turning south and enjoyed some Braums back in AMA as the couplet intensified past the canyon.

There are few things I enjoy more than being beneath a supercell on the plains, but where do we strike a balance between safety and enjoying our hobby? At what point do we hang back and avoid "the show" all together, especially in a Tulia situation with one cell and limited roads? As a sports videographer, I think of the photog bum rush to the 50 after the clock runs off, only in this situation everyone in the stadium has a sideline pass. IMO discouraging locals and over-confident inexperienced chasers is practically impossible, which limits the opportunity for change to factors within our control. For me, it's going to be secondary targets and avoiding anything remotely close to OKC/DFW. Hope to see some of you this weekend in N KS and NE.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Yesterday's Spotter Network beacon count peaked at 1,855, almost double the peak we saw Friday in Nebraska. Put all of that on one storm in a limited road network & that's what happens. It's not reasonable to evaluate the state of chasing on worst-case incidents.

High Risks make people go crazy. High Risks in Oklahoma even more so. I heard about Facebook chase teams putting together GoFundMes for gas money so they could chase Monday for crying out loud!

Chaser traffic isn't a mystery. It is very predictable, the factors that lead to big jams are well-known (high risk, one storm, limited roads, Southern Plains).

I just can't fathom the lack of rational thinking about this issue. Yes days like Monday are bad. But everyone is just going all-the-way "it's the end of chasing" every single time. If you want to partake in the hyperbole & talk yourself out of the next Dodge City or Bennington, be my guest. I'm going to be there and have very little problems just as I always have. Maybe having even less out there will make it even easier, so maybe I should stop trying to be the voice of reason.

 

[Andrew Constans]

Yesterday's Spotter Network beacon count peaked at 1,855, almost double the peak we saw Friday in Nebraska. Put all of that on one storm in a limited road network & that's what happens. It's not reasonable to evaluate the state of chasing on worst-case incidents.

High Risks make people go crazy. High Risks in Oklahoma even more so. I heard about Facebook chase teams putting together GoFundMes for gas money so they could chase Monday for crying out loud!

Chaser traffic isn't a mystery. It is very predictable, the factors that lead to big jams are well-known (high risk, one storm, limited roads, Southern Plains).

I just can't fathom the lack of rational thinking about this issue. Yes days like Monday are bad. But everyone is just going all-the-way "it's the end of chasing" every single time. If you want to partake in the hyperbole & talk yourself out of the next Dodge City or Bennington, be my guest. I'm going to be there and have very little problems just as I always have. Maybe having even less out there will make it even easier, so maybe I should stop trying to be the voice of reason.

I've always appreciated your videos showing the actual convergence when everyone is freaking out about dots. I guess these "big-jam" situations are just another thing to anticipate and plan around on high-end days, and maybe some added incentive to identify secondary targets if it looks too crazy. What would you have done to avoid it at Tulia or Magnum?

 

[Joshua Nall]

There will be disappointment. We can't go where we want to and do what we want to do. I think that is the real issue here. It's disappointing. I consider it to be similar to going to a park in Austin,TX. Soooo many people. That place has exploded in population and a lot of the native Austinites are irritated. You go to see nature and there are 100s of people, blaring music and smoking smelly weed. It's disappointing. But I mostly agree with Dan. I've chased the big events for 10 years on the south plains and have always enjoyed it. I can't imagine ever not going to a mod or high risk in central Oklahoma. But I can see how I engage the storms and approach the day, needing to evolve. You can't predict what others will do so there will always be irritations. Certainly not encouraging anyone if they think they won't enjoy it.
One other point... Some of these people are clearly just average people with cell phone apps. There is a Texas storm chasers group with 60,000 members...people always sharing pictures they take on there. Asking about apps and ride alongs, etc... Many of them are really clueless about storm structure. They do not know how to interpret radar data. But they are still going out taking pictures. My thought is that these people are more local than I am and free to do what they want to do, so I think that is fine. I did the same exact thing in my area for years before I started traveling. We can speak to them about safety, etc... but that is about the extent of it.