• While Stormtrack has discontinued its hosting of SpotterNetwork support on the forums, keep in mind that support for SpotterNetwork issues is available by emailing [email protected].

Chase Season 2025 - Crowded Roads Discussion.

Will try not to make this a complaint post. Arnett day was up there in the history of convergence, but it was to be expected. What really has convinced me its getting out of hand is the bust day from close to Arnett AFTER DARK last week. It was night-time and there were so many cars it took me a over a minute to turn left at an intersection on a rural highway near Roll, Oklahoma. There was no chance to get any still photography from the constant stream of headlights, every dirt road had at least 5-6 cars parked on the sides and there was no relief from the traffic until you got at least 15 miles away from the storm. It seems even the old boundaries of night chasing are disappearing at this point. Chasing in other states hasn't been as bad, but there is definitely an uptick in the crowds no matter where you go.

A couple of factors driving this. With YouTube revenue now a legit source of income (or at least cost re-imbursement), streamers are and will be multiplying by the day. I believe its the new gold rush. This also encourages use of a single vehicle per person. Where in the past you may have had four people in one car, now you can have four individuals in four cars. Given the number of streamers now, it doesn't take long for that multiplication to add up on the roads.

Another factor I believe is how the job market has changed and the flexibility people have. A young person can work and save nine months out of the year and simply quit their job and chase for three straight months then find another job when it's over. Or, they can just do door-dash, Uber, etc. full time in the off season and chase all they want. I also think more people are building their lives around chasing these days due to the increased exposure.

Anyways, I think we'll see it get nothing but busier out there, and eventually crowded roads will become an everyday thing during chase season (if it isn't already). I see chasing in the future morphing into more of an event to be attended like a concert or a basketball game as opposed to a hunt as it's been in the past. I've definitely modified how I chase due to the amount of people doing it now and it's hard not to see it only getting more congested as time goes by.
 
Speaking of night, on the May 18 Arnett day after sunset it was quite a parade heading back to Alva, when everyone was out of chase mode. Down to around 30 mph at times. And once there, an adventure to find lodging and food. I got the last room where I stayed and waited for food for close to 20 minutes at McDonalds at 9:30 p.m.

OTOH, after initially getting in the crowds west of Vici after arriving too late for the tornadoes (ugh!), I went a couple miles east of Vici and headed north on back roads and saw no chasers at all until I ended up back on the main road south of Freedom when the storm displayed some nice LP structure. Loads of chasers there, but at least they were parking completely off the road and I did not see any stupidity like setting up tripods on the highway that I have seen in past years.

I think Sean is on to something regarding more flexible work arrangements. Starting when Wolf Creek Ski Area reopened after the pandemic, there were loads of people "working from home" at the ski area. Mostly skiing or snowboarding of course, but occasionally making a call or sending texts or emails to make it look like they were working. I am sure it works the same way with chasing. Employers have tightened up on that some since then, but there is still a lot of it and the trend was already under way before the pandemic.
 
I've chased the Plains every year since 2006. Some of the worst convergence events I've ever witnessed were within those first few years. Memorial Day weekend 2008 and 19 May 2010 come to mind, with the latter still being the benchmark. But the key is that all those early circus days were MDT or HIGH risks in OK/KS, during peak season, some with the largest Plains field project in history involved.

For the past 10-15 years, every time this topic comes up, I've hypothesized the following: the worst convergence days in the 2000s were about as bad as the worst days more recently. But as you move down the scale toward more marginal setups, outside peak season, and outside OK/KS, traffic has gotten far worse than it was in the 2000s for those same events. My anecdotal observation is that the "never stop chasing" mindset steadily exploded through the course of the 2010s, and with it, congestion on less obvious days. Marginal sleeper days with minimal traffic were still a thing circa 2010, especially outside the mid-late May chasecation period. Honestly, you could still go out on a 2-5% day in the Panhandle in the fall and barely see anyone. By 2016-2018, that had radically changed. But even recently, I still wasn't convinced that the core chasing experience had changed all that much for any kind of easily forecastable day during May-June.

I'm rethinking that this year, though. Like Sean, what I've seen the past several weeks has rattled intuitions I have that already priced in a sizable (but not limitless) "never stop chasing" crowd. Arnett was an abject cluster, but at least that was a weekend OK MDT in May. What I saw while driving home at dusk on the daytime OK cap bust on 24 May, and then the next day on the HP grungefest near Matador-Dickens on 25 May, was jarring. Sure, it was Memorial Day weekend. But those were both shitty setups, if we're honest. And yet, hundreds of vehicles were desperate enough to bite on nocturnal convection in poor roads, and on a disgusting HP wall of greenage known to be chucking cantaloupes with little promise of a visible tornado. Separately, seeing a bona fide swarm of SN dots as the 14 March outbreak began at 11pm in the jungles of MO was another intuition-rattling moment this year.

I could speculate all day about what's driving this new uptick beyond the already-bad baseline we've had the past decade or so. Maybe social media has created an almost boundless feedback loop of FOMO and ever-lowering standards for the kind of pics/footage that are rewarded enough to motivate people (the jaw-dropping convoy headed to Roll/Cheyenne after dark on 24 May certainly suggests this). Maybe a lot of it is locals inspired by the handful of weather YouTubers that have recently become household names (one of those approached my car recently and seemed minimally informed at best). Maybe that godforsaken movie last year had more impact than I naively thought it would at the time. Probably all of the above and more. It's almost impossible to measure the evolution of the crowd vs. chase setup quality curve, let alone understand the demographics driving it.

All I know is that this year, I've found myself repeatedly fleeing storms due to crowds, muttering to myself "what am I even doing out here?"... and then minutes later, running into yet more crowds 10 or 12 miles downstream, far out of position, still occupying every single viable pulloff even there. It's the first year the thought of looking to secondary targets has seriously crossed my mind.
 
I think Sean is on to something regarding more flexible work arrangements. Starting when Wolf Creek Ski Area reopened after the pandemic, there were loads of people "working from home" at the ski area. Mostly skiing or snowboarding of course, but occasionally making a call or sending texts or emails to make it look like they were working. I am sure it works the same way with chasing. Employers have tightened up on that some since then, but there is still a lot of it and the trend was already under way before the pandemic.

I agree. In fact, that’s my whole strategy for increasing the amount of time I can spend on the Plains. Whereas in the past I had to take a reasonable block of PTO such as two weeks max, now I can just be “working remotely from the Plains.” I do use PTO, but only for the afternoon. Flexible work time also helps - on certain days I might be able to work from 6am-2pm and not use any PTO at all, or make up work time on a weekend down day. Or I can participate in meetings from the car, or even process emails if someone else is driving. If this increases my number of chases per year, then theoretically I’m part of the problem, as are others like me. (Although my strategy doesn’t seem to actually be having that result these past couple of years I’ve tried it, but that’s another story…)
 
Last edited:
If this increases my number of chases per year, then theoretically I’m part of the problem, as are others like me.
To be fair, we are all a part of the problem, if it even is a problem. Everyone who's ever shared a cool photo, promoted it via social media, posted a video on YT or even told a co-worker about the incredible chase we had last week is part of it. Little by little, chasing has snowballed into something that is now popular, and add in the fact that technological advancements have made it more and more accessible, it's not hard to see why it has taken off and with increased visibility will continue to grow in popularity.

The question is what do we do with it? Most of us here have been around way before crowds were even a thing, so it's easy to see it from a different perspective than a teenager just getting into it who sees the same crowd of people day after day, just in different parts of the country. For some, chasing is a social event and it's no issue at all. I just happen to be the type of person who avoids crowds in everyday life, whether its rush hour traffic in OKC, waiting in line at a restaurant, or Wal-Mart on the weekends, so I naturally have an aversion to packed roads where roads aren't supposed to be packed. I have to be honest, there are many times I have asked Brett's question of "What am I doing here?" and contemplated letting this part of my life go, but it always pulls me back in, as it does everyone I suppose.

At the end of the day, regardless of the reasons, it's everyone's to enjoy and take part in. How we go about that is up to each individual. But, maybe someday Yogi Berra's wise words will apply: "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."
 
One secret is to avoid the group forecasting trap. I call them the "Borg." They feast upon SPC outllooks and many of them do not even take the time to carefully study surface conditions or consider similar historical set-ups.

For example: on May 19th. almost every chaser targeted OK or S. Central KS. I went to Scott City and saw three tornadoes and zero crowded roads. I became so lonely, I had to call a crisis line. On May 25, the Borg collective targeted an area east of LBB. This region had decent instability but straight line hodos. I've seen this set-up before in western Texas and you need OFB's to do the trick. I chased west of LBB and into E. NM which actually had better odds of producing a tornado (via OFB's). Portales proved it right.

Obviously, on some days there is not an equal / better secondary target, but I would guess it's about 70% in favor. Don't quote me on this, but I believe OFB's are playing an even bigger part in tornadogenisis since the drought years. I have also learned that some of the best tornado shots are coming from the back of the storm when illuminated by sunlight, especially with drone deployment. There is often no need to join the circus, trying to see a low-contrast wedge.
 
Thanks mostly to secondary-targeting and avoiding the big peak-season Oklahoma days, I have not had any traffic issues this year.

As many of you know, I've flip flopped on this issue dramatically several times. After the May 19, 2010 debacle (which I did not even chase), I was concerned enough about it that I decided not to chase in the Great Plains at all in 2011. I resumed Plains trips with trepidation in 2012, but upon that return, didn't see anything of concern - to the point that I felt silly for being so melodramatic about it.

In the years following, I was not running into the traffic issues that seemed, to me, to be blown way out of proportion. Starting in 2014, I had a four-way dashcam setup that I started archiving and posting after every Plains chase just to show evidence of how I wasn't seeing the traffic that was being decried.

I have made it a point since 2010 to avoid the peak-season (May 15-June 10), Oklahoma-only, moderate/high risk, single-storm, bad road network events. So that alone can explain much of why I haven't seen many traffic issues. But also I've come to realize that the more aggressive style of chasing I've adopted since 2012 may also keep me out of most of it. I get on a storm early and stay very close to the action areas. My stops are very short.

From what I can tell, the main traffic issues on the average day seem to begin just behind the storm, with the maximum between 1 to 5 miles behind it. It seems that most are doing a more leisurely-paced style of chasing, stopped for longer periods of time (doing tripoded timelapses and such). That contingent decides to move only when the storm starts getting too far away. Newer chasers also tend to wait longer to move again. Another peak seems to form a mile or two to the south and east, where the structure fans tend to hang out just ahead of the storm's longitude. Staying close to and just ahead of most storms (just north and east of the meso, hugging the forward flank precip/edge of the hail) seems to keep you out of both of those areas *most of the time*. Of course, that is just the average Plains day - the apocalyptic events are obviously worse and more widespread, but I just don't have enough experience with those as I actively avoid them when I know they are likely.

All that said, I do acknowledge that there is some horrendous traffic, and those events do seem to be becoming more common. As in, instead of one or two such events in a season, there are half a dozen or more. I've also seen a very noticeable uptick of chasers in the Midwest in the past 5 years. There is no such thing as a sleeper setup here any longer. Any day with the 0-3KM CAPE and surface vorticity overlap on the SPC mesoanalysis page will bring out numbers reminiscent of early 2000s Plains events! On both May 15 and May 20 east of Springfield, IL, there were maybe 20 cars parked at each I-72 exit. 10 years ago, I'd be the only one there and I'd only see other reports and images from Skip Talbot , Paul Hadfield and Winston Wells who were down the road a ways.

I do still think that the worst events are mostly predictable enough in advance to avoid due to all of the known factors we've already covered. Unfortunately, that's going to require forfeiting some potentially big days. The consolation is that I care much less about missing something that 1,000 people have the same pictures/videos of.
 
Last edited:
Speaking of night, on the May 18 Arnett day after sunset it was quite a parade heading back to Alva, when everyone was out of chase mode. Down to around 30 mph at times. And once there, an adventure to find lodging and food. I got the last room where I stayed and waited for food for close to 20 minutes at McDonalds at 9:30 p.m.

OTOH, after initially getting in the crowds west of Vici after arriving too late for the tornadoes (ugh!), I went a couple miles east of Vici and headed north on back roads and saw no chasers at all until I ended up back on the main road south of Freedom when the storm displayed some nice LP structure. Loads of chasers there, but at least they were parking completely off the road and I did not see any stupidity like setting up tripods on the highway that I have seen in past years.

I think Sean is on to something regarding more flexible work arrangements. Starting when Wolf Creek Ski Area reopened after the pandemic, there were loads of people "working from home" at the ski area. Mostly skiing or snowboarding of course, but occasionally making a call or sending texts or emails to make it look like they were working. I am sure it works the same way with chasing. Employers have tightened up on that some since then, but there is still a lot of it and the trend was already under way before the pandemic.

I too noted that weird duality to the crowds on the 18th. After bailing on the crowd when it was pretty clear the storm was done producing tornadoes, I fell back and enjoyed the tower from a distance, but then found myself back in a slow conga line on 64 eastbound. It was completely baffling to me because by now the storm was a good 10-15 miles away to the north and obviously dying a rapid death by this point, and all I wanted to do was get to Alva and find some (non-fast-food) grub. Unsuccessful on this count after 9 PM on a Sunday (the Shepherd's Diner Google Maps said was open 24 hours actually was not, apparently that only refers to the gas station attached to it), it was only then I zoomed out the radar view and saw what was going on near Greensburg.

Despite my GPS having me take some gnarly pitch-black dirt roads (apparently there was construction somewhere it was routing me around), I made it to the area northwest of Pratt in time to nearly get myself run over by an 11 PM EF3+. This is the part of the chase I haven't told my wife about.
 
On the flip side, the next day I had the tornado-warned wall cloud practically all to myself on NE-39 midway between Silver Creek and Genoa, although I know a few other people were on it from different spots including @Ethan Schisler and @Andrew Pritchard. If it had produced right then, it would have been quite a coup. Although of course it didn't and it was only people like Andrew who had the patience to keep up with it through multiple mergers and HP cycles who saw the tornadoes that day.

Although, I still haven't seen any other shots from the little LP I later ended up on west of Fairmont. Guessing the continuing Oklahoma moderate risk drew a lot of the attention, although most of us had the good sense to realize it was probably going to suck.
 
The day in Southeast Missouri was terrible. We were close to the first tornado when it formed, and almost immediately after, we were caught on a narrow two-lane road going 20 mph with idiots passing on the left. This jam cost us a good look at the later Sikeston tornado. In general, I like to hang back to get structure, which paid off on the Seymour HP beast day. Many chasers were up in the notch, capturing marginal low-contrast tornadoes, while I was photographing the epic structure. Similarly, on May 25, we drove past a lot of folks right under the meso near Matador, went a few miles southeast, and again found good structure. Later, we were almost the first on the Haskell beast. I am not a tornado-at-all-costs chaser, which has cost me a tube or two (like Arnett), but crowd avoidance is high on my list of chase strategies.
 
I'll caveat my earlier posts with my experiences this year being pretty isolated, mostly due to the same reasons of alternative targeting. May 28th near Beaver, OK was so enjoyable because it was one of those rare moments where it felt like I had the storm mostly to myself, with only three or four others leapfrogging each other at turnoffs to get photos and video. Everyone else had targeted slightly further north in Kansas and things evolved almost perfectly for my position.

My home base means I get to experience the joys of convergence a little more often, which I'm willing to put up with more often than not out of convenience. I'm probably not going to turn a two hour drive into a six hour drive to target a secondary location. Mostly my strategy has been to go where the conglomeration of red dots ain't, if it's possible. But, I'm in full agreement that the more apparent traffic is probably more about the rise in attendance of everyday run of the mill days as opposed to being an increase in traffic on expected moderate/high risk days.

Speaking of red dots, my quick thoughts on the post-Arnett structure traffic, and nocturnal Arnett bust storm because I think the pattern may be related. I'm not sure if it's group-think or not, but there seems to be a pattern of everyone making the same moves at the same time. Everyone moved toward Woodward after the Arnett tornadoes, then pivoted northeast toward Freedom to catch the structure pretty much at the same time. Then it seemed everyone gave up on the cell and started heading back toward Waynoka and Alva at the same time. Same thing kind of happened with the Arnett nocturnal storm bust, with everyone moving toward Arnett at once, then pivoting off it and going toward Greenfield and Watonga almost as if they were all in sync. Makes me wonder if there is some red dot influence in how people are chasing and with decision making (kind of like my alternative targeting strategy eh?), or if its just obvious moves due to the circumstance. My apologies for the conjecture as I've always been one to like to try and solve puzzles.
 
Along the lines of crowded roads... I think I have come to terms with conga lines and all that with the idea that I, too, am part of that problem. Days like May 18 are fairly uncommon (I wouldn't say rare), in terms of the secondary target being such a raging success (I guess 'technically' Akron 2023 counts, too). But it's not always feasible to go with a second target; either one doesn't exist or the primary target is too good to ignore. But in the latter, I am part of those conga lines, so then it becomes a matter of trying to avoid the main roads wherever possible.

Cue dirt roads... and I think where my biggest pet-peeve lives among this topic. I have intentionally purchased vehicles that are made to handle unpaved roads. It's the primary reason I buy Subarus; they can handle not only bad weather, but they can handle bad roads. Obviously there is a point to which the road is too bad for use, but generally speaking, I have been able to successfully navigate about 90% of what I would consider to be bad roads.

Where I get annoyed... is people taking vehicles, such as their two-wheel drive Camry, down these same roads, and because those vehicles are not equipped to handle those conditions, they slow up if not block these roads cause (SURPRISE) they get stuck. My biggest complaint within this topic of hoards are the people who try to take roads beyond their vehicle's capability, and thus block those roads as well.

I remember this on Dodge City 2016; we took a north/south dirt road a couple miles west of US-283 and encountered multiple stuck or very-near-stuck two-wheel drive sedans that ultimately led us back to the congo line on US-283. In fact, a westbound turn we wanted to take was blocked by a blue sedan that was stuck in the mud at that turn and we were unable to navigate around them.

I completely understand the desire to take non-main roads where available (I am literally doing just that), however I would LOVE IT if people stuck to the roads their vehicles were capable of so those of us who invested in vehicles that have a little more variety in the roads they can take can do so without having to get stuck behind if not completely blocked by those who cannot navigate those poorer conditioned roads.

/endrant
 
I've found it fascinating how I see some of the same veteran chases over and over and how little I see other ones. There is a style to people's chasing for sure. I have had fairly good luck avoiding the crowds lately and I owe it to a couple of reasons.

First I often am on the secondary target and not the primary one. There are two reason for this. First I typically don't like the higher risk SPC areas because if the SPC is that certain about storms it usually means messy storm mode with storms everywhere and this doesn't make a good chase. Second, I usually work part of a day, leave DFW, drive to the target, and drive back to DFW in the same day (or late the next morning). That means I can't consider targets in KS and north and even have to think hard about northern OK and the Texas Panhandle (although I often drive to Childress, Paducah, or even Lamasa and back in the same day).

The other reason is even when I am on the same storm as a lot of other folks, I often am closer or futher away than others. Having done this for a long time, I'm not afraid to get fairly close to the right storm, but others need more room. One example is the May 29, 2025 Lamesa TX storm. The inflow region was very dusty and impossible to see, so we got out of the notch and went a little west and gave the storm a little more room. We had to deal with some RFD and it still was dusty, but much better than the impossible to see in inflow. Several other veterans did the same thing.

My problem comes when the road network is limited and it forces chasers of all styles into the same area. This has happened several times to me trying to get thru Caprock Canyon and the limited roads and Red River crossings. The big issue is if you have to turn left onto a busy road with lots of chasers running scarred on it and you have another chaser in front of you at the stop sign afraid to go.

I try to take all this into consideration and plan ahead to avoid the mess, but every once and a while I get it wrong. It does help that I usually chase with someone else who drives so I am free to overthink stuff like crowds.
 
Back
Top