Chase Case #8

[Marc Austin]

Alright, since I managed to blow it last time, though there are a dozen people still playing with Case 7, I decided to try and redeem myself and make an interesting case that wasn't as "revealing" . So here we go again. I will start with the 00Z day 1 outlook once again, so many of you can position before 12Z. I am also posting the tornado probablistic based on the 00Z outlook.

00Z Convective Outlook
00Z Tornado Probablistic

12Z Observations:


12Z Convective Outlook

Surface Observations:
Upper Midwest
Great Lakes
Southern Miss. Valley

Upper Air:
850mb
700mb
500mb
300mb

Soundings:
White Lake, MI
Wilmington, OH
Jackson, MS
Nashville, TN
Gaylord, MI
Lincoln, IL
Little Rock, AR

Visible Satellite Imagery: I could only zoom into one region, so I'm including a national image. Sorry, wish I could provide more data.
National
Upper Midwest

Radar Imagery:
Great Lakes Region
Upper Midwest
Southern Miss. Valley

Hopefully this time I won't have left the date lying around somewhere. I don't think I have. I combed through the images pretty carefully to make sure. I won't be posting 18Z data until Thursday most likely. I have quite a bit to do between now and then, so take your time and think on this one before making a quick decision. I will post a wayfaring map when I get to the 18Z update! If you do notice anything that makes the date obvious, please PM me rather than announce it. I'd rather give people a chance. Thanks!

Edit: I've added a 700mb map upon request and started a new wayfaring map for those who are participating. I will try to keep it up to date, but classes may keep me from making sure everyone is added before tonight.

Wayfaring Map

 

[Dean Baron]

Ooooo, you changed it up, a MO/AR/MS/TN chase, very nice. Its a tough call for me, north or south, north or south, hmm, I'll go with Marshfield, MO for now, I know I'll get some good visibility down there in those Ozarks. Touch call, that's for sure.

 

[Randall Cooper]

I don't like Arkansas!!! lol
I'm thinking I'll just camp out on my deck enjoying the calm before the storm, since I'm pretty close to the action here. I'll make a decision where to go at around 13 or 14z, again considering I am pretty close to the action already according to the hatched area.

EDIT: I changed my mind, I will leave at 13z to go visit my sister and her family(niece and nephew) in Lake Winnebago(just south of Lees Summit, MO) until the 18z comes out. Puts me closer to the action! I should be at my sisters house around 15z or so giving me 3 hours to play with the kids

 

[Darren Addy]

If I'm not mistaken, the 700mb map would be useful for wind fields and cap temps. Any chance of including that? (Thanks again for the hard work putting these together!)

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Wow this is a toughy. I will head to St. Louis for starts and leave at 12z and then either shoot down into E Arkansas or something else. LOL.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I start the chase in Paducah,Ky: nice moisture return and good shear. That's it so far: anxious to see 18Z run.

 

[Andrew Revering]

Wow I'm not liking this one:

- These big wrapped up lows that are east of the Missouri River I never chase... they often are a big rainy mess, and terrain is pretty unchaseable.
- 850 moisture is out of phase with surface features, pushed way east...

So with that said... if I have to chase, I'll try Osceola, IA to start with.

 

[Mikel Shively]

If I were going to chase, I believe I would set up around Bethany, MO and go from there, but thats where Im gonna start at anyway.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Those upper level winds just scream tornado outbreak! Especially for the Arkansas target, but one mitigating factor is how the 850 low deepens, as that could really mess up the low-level shear profiles. Deep layer shear is more than enough, probably approaching 100 knots by the time of initiation. I think if violent tornadoes do occur, a good starting point would be the NW corner of Arkansas, probably in the Fayetteville-Springdale area with easy access north.

A secondary area of concern to me is central Illinois through central Indiana, depending on where the warm front sets up. If I had to pick a target there, I would probably choose Champaign, Illinois as you've got pretty good north and east options along the Interstate to adjust your target as the day goes along. I could easily see something popping up and riding the warm front to supercellular glory.

Either way, storms will be really humming along, so I would make sure to pack the afterburners!

 

[Beau.Gjerdingen]

Not a huge fan of these stacked setups, but why not give it a whirl. Just for fun, I think I will start the day in Keokuk, IA. Not thrilled about the moist adiabatic soundings this morning, but hopefully we will see that improve through the day. I don't want to end up in the Ozarks if I can avoid it.

 

[Verne Carlson]

I only had to look at the 500mb chart - I don't see any area that I would honestly chase on this one. Marc is this a florida setup??

 

[Matt Gingery]

Hey, this is nice. I can monitor the situation from the comfort of my home in Ozark Missouri. Any chasers want to join me for a cook out and mesoscale analysis come on down. This is an early or late season event, so I think daylight may be an issue. I am poised to head up I-44 towards the Lebanon Mo. area and I can also head east on HWY 60 towards Cabool Mo. I will wait for the next update.

 

[David Wolfson]

I just can't get excited about AR or most of MO. It just seems too far from the dynamics and somewhat swept out above the surface, from what I can tell without, say, a Little Rock sounding. Lincoln, IL, needs more low-level moisture, some cooling at mid-upper levels and heating to beat the cap.

My eyes keep getting drawn to central-northwest IN, where the combination of dynamics, thermal advection, surface heating, and moisture seems more favorable. Haukay, I'll start the morning on I-65 at Lebanon, IN, between Indianapolis and Lafayette.

 

[Patrick Martin]

12z position: Memphis TN

I caught a flight the night before from Denver to Memphis TN, which will be my starting point for the day. Currently sitting in a friends house just outside downtown getting ready for the day to unfold. Speed sheer where I am is okay, but should improve, along with the addition of a directional component as I will look for the LLJ to start setting up by later in the day. With high pressure off the east coast, think the system will move slowly east, putting nw AR/se MO/sthrn IL&IN under difluent flow. Storm motions will likely be very fast.

Holding in Memphis until the 18z runs come out.

 

[AndyGabrielson]

Im heading to Lamar, MO. I will set up shop there, I have a feeling this might end up being a large cluster of storms...