Chase Case #15

[Wes Carter]

I'm chasing the southern cell here in North Texas and hoping it consumates this deal and drops a tube. But even if it doesn't, it sure is nice to be on a cell!

 

[Charles Kuster]

It looks like this if going to be a bust for me, but that's all part of chasing! I started out the day in the middle (Great Bend) and was never able to correct for that. As of right now, I am going to drop south to Cheyenne, OK (should be able to make it there in about an hour). If storms fire further north, as mentioned in the MD, then I might do some night chasing. In the end I will probably end up in Elk City or Sayre and see what tomorrow holds.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I am going to relocate a bit down the road to Highmore SD. I see a nice looking cell with great inflow. I will hopefully intercept with this cell and chase anything that backbuilds or pops to the south. I sure like that insane cell in W Nebraska. For now I feel confident about making possible multiple intercepts across South Dakota.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I just realized which day this one was so I will be off to lurk mode the rest of the way. Off to the sidelines.

 

[Bob Gould]

Continued heading west on US70 all the way to Vernon, Tx by the 23Z report. Based on the 23Z I will keep moving west/SW on US 70 hoping to intercept near Crowell, Tx.

Sure glad these gas prices are down since I may be chasin my tail!

 

[Dann Cianca]

Moving down to Minneola, Kansas. Should be there by 23Z ... seeing a cu field below the cirrus which looks to be thinning out.

Cirrus not thinning ... thickening like my frustration. Going to keep heading south on US283 and try and get as far as possible by the next updates.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Moving east from Shamrock, TX to just south of Sayer, OK and watching the cell in NE Childress County, TX....going to try to get in a better position to intercept it....this looks like my only play right now....so lets see if I can get in position and watch the cell mature and catch a tube.....

EDIT: In lala land in western OK while the main show is in NE....going to head up to Clinton, OK and see what transpires....looks like a long drive home with a BUSTED day!!!!

 

[Bob Hartig]

YESSS!!! A convective blob sitting right on top of me! Stiff backing winds. And actual dewpoints! Not huge dewpoints, but if that storm two counties to my north can put down four tubes with 52 Tds to work with, this one should be able to at least get started with 54. Still no red in the reflectivity, but my hopes are up and I'm tracking with this cell.

 

[Paul Townsend]

As I busted south toward the Guthrie area I saw the first storm explode. By the time I got into the area of the storm it had split already and I was left wasting time trying to navigate around/through the left-mover. But I am after the right-mover. I don't like the dewpoint depression the further south you go, but this right-mover is looking great so it is my play. I was finally able to get south of it, but hopefully I didn't miss any tubes. Sweet looking storm, however.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Abandoning Wichita Falls, and backtracking FAST as I can for Matador,Tx gonna sit at 70 & 94!

Still think Pensacola Florida area is going to see something today

 

[Paul Austin]

Urgent Notice

<3 short crackly tones, 1 long clear tone>

"From the National Weather Service in..."

At 2330z a tornado was reported 7 miles northeast of Angora, NE.

• mobile home destroyed
• windmill damaged
  
• center pivot damaged
• power lines down

At 2334z a tornado was reported in Scotts Bluff County, NE.
At 2335z a tornado was reported 1 mile west of Bayard, NE.
At 2342z a tornado was reported 1 mile northeast of Minatare, NE.
At 2351z a tornado was reported 7 miles notheast of Minatare, NE.
At 0000z a tornado was reported 6 miles east of Minatare, NE.

 

[Paul Austin]

0z Observations

0Z Observations:


Surface Observations:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Mississippi Valley
Middle Mississippi Valley

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

Infrared Satellite Imagery:
National

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Mississippi Valley
Middle Mississippi Valley
Lower Mississippi Valley

Vertical Wind Profile:
AGL
MSL


Mesoscale Discussions and Weather Watches:

MD 14 Graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 14[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]0649 PM CDT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN AR/NWRN LA/NORTH CENTRAL-NERN TX/SOUTH[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]CENTRAL-SERN OK[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH...[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]VALID 2349Z - 0045Z[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]EXISTING WW MAY BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. HOWEVER..A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]LATER THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX/SOUTH CENTRAL OK.[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING EWD OVER ERN OK/ERN TX[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WHICH APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THIS[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]REGION. VAD/PROFILERS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE LLJ IS OVER THE FAR WRN[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]PORTION OF WW AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL OK. [FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NORTH[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]CENTRAL TX/SOUTH CENTRAL OK EWD INTO SWRN AR/NWRN LA...CONVECTIVE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]THIS AREA. [FONT=&quot]


MD 15 Graphic

[/FONT]MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 15[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]0719 PM CDT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...COASTAL AL...ERN LA[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]VALID 0019Z - 0215Z[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SRN MS INTO COASTAL[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]AL...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT N OR W[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS UNLIKELY.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY W AND SW[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]OF JAN AND JUST NE OF MCB. INITIATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW IS UNLIKELY[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NO LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM IN[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]PLACE. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY END AS CURRENT CLUSTER[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]OF STORMS MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
Chaser Positioning Map[/FONT]

 

[Verne Carlson]

<3 short crackly tones, 1 long clear tone>

"From the National Weather Service in..."

At 2330z a tornado was reported 7 miles northeast of Angora, NE.

• mobile home destroyed
• windmill damaged
  
• center pivot damaged
• power lines down

At 2334z a tornado was reported in Scotts Bluff County, NE.
At 2335z a tornado was reported 1 mile west of Bayard, NE.
At 2342z a tornado was reported 1 mile northeast of Minatare, NE.
At 2351z a tornado was reported 7 miles notheast of Minatare, NE.
At 0000z a tornado was reported 6 miles east of Minatare, NE.

I ran out of tape and my batteries are dead... what day was this in reality and why didn't I chase it?!

 

[Paul Austin]

I ran out of tape and my batteries are dead... what day was this in reality and why didn't I chase it?!

You'll find out soon enough. Tomorrow, I'll post 1z and results, including, of course, the date. Nice virtual chase, Verne!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Still on the cell in NW Texas and it has to be producing a tornado by now?