Chase Case #15

[Jason Branz]

Abandoning my plan to blast south on 83 as I watch the developing storm near Turkey. Of course by now, I'm about halfway in between the two storms, but the better intercept course, factoring in storm structure and the road network, is back to the north. The atmosphere is still primed with good SE flow and moisture, so it's time to head back north to CDS. Argh...shoulda stayed in Memphis. Oh well.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Woohoo - I'm in the western NE tornado watch box chasing the cell from Scotts Bluff to Alliance, NE it looks like a tornado is going to drop soon or may already have.

Edit: checking the Wayfaring map looks like Andrea and I got a couple tornadoes!

At 2141z a tornado was reported 4 miles south of Minatare, NE.

At 2157z a tornado was reported 4 miles southeast of Minatare, NE.

At 2200z a tornado was reported 6 miles north of Bayard, NE.

 

[Marc Austin]

As tornado reports were coming in, I was still in McCook, NE. I am now heading north then west toward Oshkosh, NE hoping for a cell to fire along the way, or at least to get a glimpse of the tornadic storm that will be to my north and in a region with very poor road networks by the time I approach it.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Woohoo - I'm in the western NE tornado watch box chasing the cell from Scotts Bluff to Alliance, NE it looks like a tornado is going to drop soon or may already have.

Edit: checking the Wayfaring map looks like Andrea and I got a couple tornadoes!

At 2141z a tornado was reported 4 miles south of Minatare, NE.

At 2157z a tornado was reported 4 miles southeast of Minatare, NE.

At 2200z a tornado was reported 6 miles north of Bayard, NE.

Sounds good,Verne! Hope that this supercell keeps on producing.

 

[Jared Farrer]

As soon as I saw the first towers going up I went ahead and drove down to Plainview, TX and am now in route to the right split. The cell to the north is looking healthy, but I am worried that its going to start to get messy up there! So I will play this southern cell until things get going a little more!

 

[Matt Gingery]

I have moved up towards Wessington Springs, SD from Mitchell, and notice a cell begin to blossum to my west. I rolled up here to check and see if the cell matures into a beast in the next short while. If this cell doesn't do it, then I will likely blast back to I-90 and head west until I catch up with any developing cells across the west side of the state. As of the 22Z update, I will be in Wessington, SD awaiting a developing cell. It looks like I will be hanging in Central SD, and N Central NE. for the remainder of this chase.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Heading south towards Mangum or Altus to wait for the probable supercells that are heading northward towards me.

 

[Paul Austin]

Urgent Notice

<3 short crackly tones, 1 long clear tone>

"From the National Weather Service in..."

At 2300z a tornado was reported 5 miles east of Angora, NE.

 

[Verne Carlson]

<3 short crackly tones, 1 long clear tone>

"From the National Weather Service in..."

At 2300z a tornado was reported 3 miles east of Angora, NE.

Woohoo - tornado number 4!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Woohoo - tornado number 4!

Amazing! In addition it's a major satisfaction with mid 50's of dew

 

[Paul Austin]

23z Update

23Z Observations:


Surface Observations:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Eastern CONUS

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Middle Mississippi Valley
Lower Mississippi Valley


Mesoscale Discussions and Weather Watches:

MD 13 Graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 13[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]0610 PM CDT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]AND WRN OK[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH...[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]VALID 2310Z - 0015Z[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS OVER NWRN TX[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]INTO SWRN OK. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...AND SWD INTO W CENTRAL TX[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]MAY REQUIRE TWO NEW WW IN THE NEXT HOUR.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN TX[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WWD TO JUST SOUTH OF CDS TO CVN WITH SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. A N-S AXIS OF 4 MB/3[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]HR PRESSURE FALLS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN KS/ERN CO WILL KEEP SURFACE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WINDS BACKED TO SSELY OVER WRN OK...CONTINUING TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SHEAR FOR INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER NWRN TX WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]NWD NEAR CDS. [FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZING NWD INTO THE ERN[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL OK MAY REQUIRE A NEW WW TO THE NORTH OF[FONT=&quot] EXISTING[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WW. ALSO AS THE RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL OVER STONEWALL COUNTY TX[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ANOTHER[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE SOUTH OF EXISTING WW.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK [FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]610 PM CDT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF [FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]EFFECTIVE THIS NIGHT FROM 610 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MOBRIDGE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SOUTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TORNADOES.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 2...WW 4...WW 5...WW6...WW 7...WW 8...[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]SOUTH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...WHILE THE MORE LINEAR[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]CONVECTION IN WRN SD COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WHILE SPREADING[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]EWD INTO CENTRAL SD LATER THIS EVENING.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]MOTION VECTOR 27025.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
Chaser Positioning Map
[/FONT]

 

[Jared Farrer]

I am sitting near Crowell, TX watching this bottom storm just tear it up.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I am on the southern supercell in NW Texas and it is looking beastly!

 

[David Wolfson]

Visual recalibration passing through Turkey at 22Z sent me down TX656 and TX1440 following the developing supercell I latched onto, now in the Pease River floodplain south of Childress. I am on TX104 near Swearingen at 23Z.

This LP storm appears to have a nasty core that makes the northeastward path through Lazare too risky for me, especially as the storm is entering a moisture-rich environment that makes a transition toward HP a good possibility, So I'm getting to US70 ASAP, crashing into Jared in Crowell, and northeast to Margaret, TX, at 00Z. This is a difficult area to traverse on local roads. The storm has a history of running from about 280 at 30 kts. with my own guess of 290 at 25 kts. for the next hour.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Taking Hwy 62 west towards Hollis as the storms from the south approach.