Josh Morgerman
EF4
Wow-- it really looks like crap today. It might not even be a 'cane right now. The structure has really gone way downhill.
Caribbean: Hurricane Tomas
- Thread starter Josh Morgerman
- Start date
Bart_Comstock
EF5
I am really surprised that the NHC hasn't already downgraded Tomas. They do, however, show it further weakening and staying a tropical storm until Wednesday when they bow to the models and have it strengthen to a hurricane and sharply curve towards Hispaniola which pretty much every model has the storm doing now.
Really one thing that hasn't be discussed to much is what this storm will do to the Haitian people who are still largely homeless and are fighting a cholera epidemic in the wake of the massive quake they had this year. The NHC has Tomas going right over Port-au-Prince as a hurricane. With how bad the conditions are there even a minimal tropical storm would be a catastrophe. Let's hope that the recurve will happen much sooner or later as Haiti is about the wort place a tropical cyclone could hit right now.
EDIT: Whoops, I see Jason mentioned the conditions in Haiti before I so I guess it really isn't an undiscussed topic in this thread.
Really one thing that hasn't be discussed to much is what this storm will do to the Haitian people who are still largely homeless and are fighting a cholera epidemic in the wake of the massive quake they had this year. The NHC has Tomas going right over Port-au-Prince as a hurricane. With how bad the conditions are there even a minimal tropical storm would be a catastrophe. Let's hope that the recurve will happen much sooner or later as Haiti is about the wort place a tropical cyclone could hit right now.
EDIT: Whoops, I see Jason mentioned the conditions in Haiti before I so I guess it really isn't an undiscussed topic in this thread.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
What a RADICAL change a day makes. The "S" word RULES in 2010 near and west of 60 W!
Fully exposed center, convection 100 miles away to the east, 40 Knots (and this is "generous" as per NHC).
If the trend continues (and current models showing a hurricane over Haiti fail), then the earthquake areas should be spared (hopefully rainfall / mudslides won't occur either).
285 days until our next REAL hurricane ;-)
What a RADICAL change a day makes. The "S" word RULES in 2010 near and west of 60 W!
Fully exposed center, convection 100 miles away to the east, 40 Knots (and this is "generous" as per NHC).
If the trend continues (and current models showing a hurricane over Haiti fail), then the earthquake areas should be spared (hopefully rainfall / mudslides won't occur either).
285 days until our next REAL hurricane ;-)
Josh Morgerman
EF4
The cyclone is on the rebound tonight-- looking much, much healthier, with very deep convection covering the center again. The idea of it regenerating to hurricane intensity doesn't seem so far-fetched now.
cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Tomas is trying and trying to re-organize with an exposed center and diffuse core, with most convection to the right and removed from the center. Rainfall looks to be the biggest threat towards Haiti (unfortunately).
Jim Edds and Jeff Pitrowski are in Port Au Prince now and the conditions there (10 months) after the earthquake are in very bad shape. Hopefully we'll here from them soon on Jeff G's link below...
http://stormvisuals.com/blog/2010/11/4/hurricane-chasers-on-the-ground-in-haiti-for-tomas.htmlhttp://www.stormvisuals.com
Tomas is trying and trying to re-organize with an exposed center and diffuse core, with most convection to the right and removed from the center. Rainfall looks to be the biggest threat towards Haiti (unfortunately).
Jim Edds and Jeff Pitrowski are in Port Au Prince now and the conditions there (10 months) after the earthquake are in very bad shape. Hopefully we'll here from them soon on Jeff G's link below...
http://stormvisuals.com/blog/2010/11/4/hurricane-chasers-on-the-ground-in-haiti-for-tomas.htmlhttp://www.stormvisuals.com
Josh Morgerman
EF4
The cyclone has gotten much better organized tonight-- very cold cloud tops now cover the center-- and it looks to be approaching hurricane strength as it heads toward the Greater Antilles. The center just might thread the needle between E Cuba and W Haiti-- but the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands should get a Cat-1 pounding.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
And it's a hurricane again-- passing very close to the W tip of Haiti with winds of 70 kt. It could be much stronger by the time it clears the Windward Passage and approaches the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.
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Jeff Piotrowski
EF3
Port-Au-Prince Update: 1:30 PM Friday
Jim & I just returned to hotel been out shooting all day. The wind was only about 30 mph with light to moderate rain overnight and early today. Small rocks and gravel washed out into the streets along with garbage from the along the side streets.
Some of the main roads were flooded with 6"-1' of water but again not to bad.
The tents cities around Port-au-Prince looked to be in good shape as far as no damage.
Jim & I just returned to hotel been out shooting all day. The wind was only about 30 mph with light to moderate rain overnight and early today. Small rocks and gravel washed out into the streets along with garbage from the along the side streets.
Some of the main roads were flooded with 6"-1' of water but again not to bad.
The tents cities around Port-au-Prince looked to be in good shape as far as no damage.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
Hey, Jeff! Thanks for the report. That's great news that things look to be OK there; a lot people were worried. As much as we all love a good 'cane, Haiti is probably the last place on the planet that needs one right now.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
And the cyclone once again looks like junk this afternoon. The IR presentation has really deteriorated, perhaps because of inflow from nearby, mountainous landmasses. I've never seen such an up-and-down system.
Jeff Piotrowski
EF3
Port-Au-Prince Update: 10:30 PM Friday
Looking NNW from Port-au-Prince see very heavy lightning all most nonstop very heavy storms near the city of Boucassin- Aubrey area. No local radar but i would expect 1-3 hr rain fall rates. I see over shooting tops with anvil crawlers NNW of my location. I would EXPECT major flooding to my north tonight. Death toll up to six west of Port-au-Prince west about 60KM. I also understand from a local Gov man told me that a small town on south shore East of Jacmel Haiti may have other victims at that location.
Jim & I were able to be part of the UN & US Army delegation today to inspect the tent city location in Port-au-Prince with UN police escort amazing experience.MAY GODâ€S GRACE BLESS THESE PEOPLE!!
Looking NNW from Port-au-Prince see very heavy lightning all most nonstop very heavy storms near the city of Boucassin- Aubrey area. No local radar but i would expect 1-3 hr rain fall rates. I see over shooting tops with anvil crawlers NNW of my location. I would EXPECT major flooding to my north tonight. Death toll up to six west of Port-au-Prince west about 60KM. I also understand from a local Gov man told me that a small town on south shore East of Jacmel Haiti may have other victims at that location.
Jim & I were able to be part of the UN & US Army delegation today to inspect the tent city location in Port-au-Prince with UN police escort amazing experience.MAY GODâ€S GRACE BLESS THESE PEOPLE!!
Josh Morgerman
EF4
The cyclone has been downgraded to a 60-kt TS, just as the center has reached the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Track-wise, Tomas has been really well-behaved: the NHC nailed the track days in advance with truly impressive accuracy.
Intensity-wise, I don't think I've ever seen a stranger system: it went up and down several times, and it always seemed to go deliberately against the forecast, weakening when it was supposed to strengthen, and vice versa.
Track-wise, Tomas has been really well-behaved: the NHC nailed the track days in advance with truly impressive accuracy.
Intensity-wise, I don't think I've ever seen a stranger system: it went up and down several times, and it always seemed to go deliberately against the forecast, weakening when it was supposed to strengthen, and vice versa.
Josh Morgerman
EF4
And it's a hurricane again. Weird system.
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