Josh Morgerman
EF4
THE 2005 SEASON TRACKS
The NHC just published the official track map for the 2005 hurricane season:
GIF: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2005atl.gif
PDF: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2005atl.pdf
Looking at all of the cyclone tracks superimposed like this, a few things stand out:
* This was the year of the Gulf coast landfall. Yeah, we all knew this, but the point is really driven home when you look at all those red lines crossing the USA and MX Gulf coastlines-- 5 and 2 respectively. (USA Gulf coast had Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, & Wilma; MX Gulf coast had Emily & Stan.)
* Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma-- 4 very big storms-- all crossed the same general point in the Gulf: roughly N of Havana, Cuba, and W of Key West, FL.
* There are so many tracks, the map is nearly impossible to read.
WHAT ABOUT 2006 LANDFALLS?
It will be interesting to see how the 2006 USA landfalls cluster. Dr. Gray's landfall probabilities (issued last week) seem to favor more of an East Coast season this year-- but for all portions of the USA coastline, the probabilities of hurricane landfalls remain well above normal:
USA: All hurricanes 98%; major hurricanes 81%
Gulf Coast: All hurricanes 79%; major hurricanes 47%
FL + East Coast: All hurricanes 89%; major hurricanes 64%
Whatever happens, I can't imagine another year with one single region getting hit so many times in a row by major (Cat 3+) hurricanes, as happened in 2005.
P.S. Given the above, I expect multiple decent chase subjects out of this season.
The NHC just published the official track map for the 2005 hurricane season:
GIF: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2005atl.gif
PDF: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2005atl.pdf
Looking at all of the cyclone tracks superimposed like this, a few things stand out:
* This was the year of the Gulf coast landfall. Yeah, we all knew this, but the point is really driven home when you look at all those red lines crossing the USA and MX Gulf coastlines-- 5 and 2 respectively. (USA Gulf coast had Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, & Wilma; MX Gulf coast had Emily & Stan.)
* Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma-- 4 very big storms-- all crossed the same general point in the Gulf: roughly N of Havana, Cuba, and W of Key West, FL.
* There are so many tracks, the map is nearly impossible to read.
WHAT ABOUT 2006 LANDFALLS?
It will be interesting to see how the 2006 USA landfalls cluster. Dr. Gray's landfall probabilities (issued last week) seem to favor more of an East Coast season this year-- but for all portions of the USA coastline, the probabilities of hurricane landfalls remain well above normal:
USA: All hurricanes 98%; major hurricanes 81%
Gulf Coast: All hurricanes 79%; major hurricanes 47%
FL + East Coast: All hurricanes 89%; major hurricanes 64%
Whatever happens, I can't imagine another year with one single region getting hit so many times in a row by major (Cat 3+) hurricanes, as happened in 2005.
P.S. Given the above, I expect multiple decent chase subjects out of this season.
