I'm definitely thinking this one has "stan the man" written all over it, though we probably won't know for sure til tomorrow. INVEST99 is looking very healthy compared to 24hrs ago and there has been an explosion deep convection in the last 6hrs. A QuikSCAT pass at ~1000UTC today missed the system, but the wave is moving into an area of enhanced LL convergence, so, even if there is not a surface low forming, a continuing increase in organization is likely. Per the latest TWO, a recon flight is scheduled to investigate the area tomorrow, so even if it's looking like a depression later today the NHC will probably wait for confirmation. Anyway, assuming it develops further, steering currents in the NW Caribbean are very weak so this is something we'll need to keep an eye on for a while. Bottom line, NW Caribbean (especially Jamaica/Cayman Islands) need to be prepared for possible tropical cyclone development in the next 24-36hrs. Further down the line...like I mentioned, steering currents will be weak, so everyone from the Yucatan to Cuba to the FL Keys needs to monitor this wave.
