Sam Sagnella
EF5
And...we are still ~1 week away from the climatological peak of the hurricane season and we are already looking at our 13th named storm of 2005. Anyway, Maria's satellite presentation is not very impressive with a blob of disorganized convection just to the northwest of the center of circulation. Maria should be forced to the NNW or N for the next few days around the western periphery of a ridge centered roughly at 28N 40W. Nearly all of the models (with the exception of SHIPS which brings Maria to 83kts in 5 days) forecast only slight intensification and the TPC has followed suit, bringing the cyclone to a max intensity of 50kts in 48hrs. Maria has only open waters of the central atlantic ahead of her, which will be >28C for at least the next couple days, and with fairly weak vertical shear forecasted I see no reason to disagree with the TPC intensity forecast.