Can it maintain the strength?

[Anonymous]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Andrew Khan)</div>

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I think right now, the eyewall has weakened as it is in the ERC phase (eyewall replacement cycle), judging by the IR satellite images. Given the distance from shore, the hurricane will likely replace it's eyewall right before landfall... I would still venture to say 155KNTS at landfall (175MPH), with gusts over 200MPH.

What does the Eyewall Replacement Cycle Do?[/b]

it reorganizes
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Eyewall replacement is when superheated stratospheric air is ducted down adiabatically into the core of the storm. If you are in the space shuttle at night, you can see spetacular ion burst flashses, when the air exceeds its maximum bernouli coefficient.

 

[Steve Miller TX]

I think the 175mph measurement recorded today will be the highest speed of this storm. I think it will weaken to around 145-150mph as it lands. My reasoning is based on the increasing SW shear associated with the weakness/trough in the upper levels. It is already evident that it is having at least a slight effect on Katrina with the recent weakening and especially satellite IR analysis. The next couple of advisories will be interesting.

Still....150mph would be devestating and a major catastrophe for the region...especially with the large size of the storm.

 

[Mikel Shively]

Originally posted by Steve Miller TX
I think the 175mph measurement recorded today will be the highest speed of this storm. I think it will weaken to around 145-150mph as it lands. My reasoning is based on the increasing SW shear associated with the weakness/trough in the upper levels. It is already evident that it is having at least a slight effect on Katrina with the recent weakening and especially satellite IR analysis. The next couple of advisories will be interesting.

Still....150mph would be devestating and a major catastrophe for the region...especially with the large size of the storm.

I tend to agree with the overall idea, however I think that the decrease in the strength will be slightly more subtle, to around 160 or so.