Can it maintain the strength?

Anonymous

What do you guys think, can it keep up 175 until landfall? What is stopping it from strengthening even more? What are your thoughts on this monster?

I am currently predicting 170 at landfall, an educated guess more then anything, I don't think to many people have experience at forecasting strength for storms this strong.
 
I think right now, the eyewall has weakened as it is in the ERC phase (eyewall replacement cycle), judging by the IR satellite images. Given the distance from shore, the hurricane will likely replace it's eyewall right before landfall... I would still venture to say 155KNTS at landfall (175MPH), with gusts over 200MPH.
 
As Rob pointed out Hurricanes go through flucuations and rarely hold on to a single intensity level for to long. Tropical Heat Content and Sea surface tempatures remain very high in that area, actually even higher than they usually are this time of year (great depth as well!). Since the replacement cycle has started and you are likely to see the pressure holding or dropping for the rest of today. Katrina could go through another strengthning/deepening trend tonight and hit early tommorow morning as one of the significant Hurricanes of the last hundred years. Based on the current intensity, timing of landfall vs. ERS and current shear there is no reason not to believe that Katrina will not make landfall a significant or even as an historic Hurricane.

Even if Katrina started gaining 1mb an hour she is still capable of devastating that area full of land below sea level and hundreds of oil facilities. Im going to go with 150 w gusts to 175. Hopefully we can get some good wind measurements this time on the surface.
 
Many hurricanes have lost intensity just before landfall along the MS/AL/FL gulf coast and even Lilly did just before hitting in SW La, but most T.S. and minor hurricanes become stronger or at least maintain when coming in close to the mouth of the Ms. The water is very deep and very warm, shear is minimal, their is some dry air to the NW but not enough to believe it would make a notable impact and the trough is not moving fast enough to push her to far east. I do believe we will see her drop down to a strong 4 by late this afternoon and she will probrably explode again overnight. Hurricanes tend to strengthen more at night and I believe tomorrow morning we will be looking at 175-180. I hope I am wrong, but I think she will hit Nola with all her fury.
 
I think I heard the water surface temps closer to the coast were close to, if not over 90 degrees, so continued strengthening is not out of the question. Granted, several recent storms have weakened before hitting, but something tells me this is not one of them.
(As I'm typing, TWC is just reporting a further pressure drop to 902mb). Are there any records of the highest known windspeeds of Gulf or Atlantic storms? Am I right in thinking some typhoons have exceeded 200mph?
Angie
 
My friend jokinlgy said that the water is so hot down there you have to wade into it slowly...like a bath.
 
Here is a shot of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) for the area provided by my friend Brian McNoldy. Notice that temps are very high. Without shearing or other mechanisms in place most see no reasons for weakening:
gulf0.png
 
Originally posted by Anonymous
What do you guys think, can it keep up 175 until landfall? What is stopping it from strengthening even more? What are your thoughts on this monster?

I am currently predicting 170 at landfall, an educated guess more then anything, I don't think to many people have experience at forecasting strength for storms this strong.

There aren't any large-scale factors to disrupt the hurricane... So, I see absolutely no reason to say why it wouldn't have sustained 175MPH winds (and >200MPH gusts) at landfall.
 
Originally posted by B Ozanne
My friend jokinlgy said that the water is so hot down there you have to wade into it slowly...like a bath.


That's actually true though. The LA marshes do get very hot. the water in the marsh is shallow and the mud bottom is black. that water gets incredibly hot. I know from wade fishing down there in teh summer months.
 
OK, so it looks like it'll make lanfall in extreme southeastern LA. I see that NO is about 50 miles inland from where Katrina will likely make landfall. Given a 13mph forward motion, the eye may be over land (well, marshland) for 4 hours before the eye passes over NO. So, I DO think the storm could weaken before the eyewall passes over NO given that the eye will be over land for a few hours before passing over NO. It may make landfall as Cat 5, but weaken to Cat 3 as it passes over NO. Granted, hurricane winds extend outward for 105 miles, but I'd be very surprised to see Cat 5 winds in NO.
 
Originally posted by rdewey
I think right now, the eyewall has weakened as it is in the ERC phase (eyewall replacement cycle), judging by the IR satellite images. Given the distance from shore, the hurricane will likely replace it's eyewall right before landfall... I would still venture to say 155KNTS at landfall (175MPH), with gusts over 200MPH.

What does the Eyewall Replacement Cycle Do?
 
Originally posted by Blake Michaleski
yeah but the \"land\" that it's going to go over is nothing but grassy wetlands.

And we've already seen Katrina make a passage over similar terrain in south Florida with barely a dent, in fact it continued to intensify for a short time after making landfall.
 
I think at landfall it will have the same winds, as it has always had, since, as Nick Grillo said, there is nothing directly affecting it.
 
Originally posted by Andrew Khan+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Andrew Khan)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey
I think right now, the eyewall has weakened as it is in the ERC phase (eyewall replacement cycle), judging by the IR satellite images. Given the distance from shore, the hurricane will likely replace it's eyewall right before landfall... I would still venture to say 155KNTS at landfall (175MPH), with gusts over 200MPH.

What does the Eyewall Replacement Cycle Do?[/b]

it reorganizes
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html
 
Eyewall replacement is when superheated stratospheric air is ducted down adiabatically into the core of the storm. If you are in the space shuttle at night, you can see spetacular ion burst flashses, when the air exceeds its maximum bernouli coefficient.
 
I think the 175mph measurement recorded today will be the highest speed of this storm. I think it will weaken to around 145-150mph as it lands. My reasoning is based on the increasing SW shear associated with the weakness/trough in the upper levels. It is already evident that it is having at least a slight effect on Katrina with the recent weakening and especially satellite IR analysis. The next couple of advisories will be interesting.

Still....150mph would be devestating and a major catastrophe for the region...especially with the large size of the storm.
 
Originally posted by Steve Miller TX
I think the 175mph measurement recorded today will be the highest speed of this storm. I think it will weaken to around 145-150mph as it lands. My reasoning is based on the increasing SW shear associated with the weakness/trough in the upper levels. It is already evident that it is having at least a slight effect on Katrina with the recent weakening and especially satellite IR analysis. The next couple of advisories will be interesting.

Still....150mph would be devestating and a major catastrophe for the region...especially with the large size of the storm.

I tend to agree with the overall idea, however I think that the decrease in the strength will be slightly more subtle, to around 160 or so.
 
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