Atlantic: Maria

[MClarkson]

Another system that is starting to look slightly interesting. The GFDL is the best case track(for a chaser) taking the storm along the islands and ultimately into south Florida as a significant hurricane. Euro has a similar track, but weaker, with barely a closed low. GFS and HWRF both jog the system well north, probably into recurving territory.

Maria is disorganized at the moment, with a blatantly exposed low level circulation on visible imagery a few hours ago, although in the last frame or two convection is again firing closer to the center. I don't know if this storm will survive the next few days. The upper level pattern in the later forecast period(4-5 days or so) improves with a nice upper level high forming over the Bahamas region per the GFS.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Maria is trending towards dissipation.

Ofcourse, since it's the only thing "chaseable" if it holds together ;-)

Lots of shear and dry air (and moving WAAAY too fast).

 

[TrumanBoyer]

Not so fast

Good day all,

Maria is trending towards dissipation.

Ofcourse, since it's the only thing "chaseable" if it holds together ;-)

Lots of shear and dry air (and moving WAAAY too fast).

This morning's discussion ends with
120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

Trending slowly towards hurricane strength and a little closer to land.

Look what a difference a day can make...

Maybe I am a little over-anxious, but I was slightly disappointed with
my "center intercept" of Irene, and I am hungry for more.

Of course this would mean more rain for the east coast. I chased a 5% tornado chance into South Central PA on Wednesday. It took me 2.5 Hrs to get out of Columbia PA due to flooded roads, downed trees, traffic, etc.

Maybe it would be okay if dried out for a week or so, and then Maria came my way...