Atlantic: Hurricane Paloma

[Jim Leonard]

If you notice there is a developing low in the far SW Caribbean. More and more of the models are showing as much as a hurricane coming north and northeast toward central and eastern Cuba in several days from now. The 200mb flow is really favorable for the system to develop and in a few days maybe quite rapidly. The only unfavorable item I see in the short term is the development of a low off the south atlantic coast, as that low moves out the low level flow will be more conducive for the Caribbean system, This situation looks similar to when hurricane Michelle developed in this area in almost the same time of year in 2001.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Good Call Jim, TD17 has been declared and if you belive the GFDL this will become a hurricane and affect Cuba on Sunday

One to watch!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Actually... The GFDL says CAT3 into Cuba on Sunday, HWRF says CAT4 into Cuba on Sunday!

 

[Stuart Robinson]

DEPRESSION 17 IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA

Mods - can we have the title of this tread changed to TS Paloma ??

 

[Paul Knightley]

Interesting system - this could ultimately (by later next week) contribute to a surge of moisture across the SE and E states ahead of a potent upper system.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Latest Recon info - Paloma is ramping up.

Storm PALOMA1: Observed By Air Force #303
Storm #17 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 61KT (70.2mph 113.0km/h) In SE Quadrant At 17:11:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 54.9KT (63.1mph 101.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60 KT N QUAD 19:24:10 Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 155 / 9NM INFRQ LTG S EYEWALL, LGT TURBC N EYEWALL ;
Date/Time of Recon Report: 06 November 2008 19:20:00 (Thu, 6 Nov 2008 19:20:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 16° 13' N 081° 48' W (16.2°N 81.8°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1370m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 52KT (59.8MPH 96.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 16nm (18.4miles) From Center At Bearing 165°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 52KT (59.8mph 96.3km/h) From 262°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 17nm (19.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 166°
Minimum pressure: 994mb (29.35in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN SW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 17 nm (19.6 mi 31.5km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

 

[cdcollura]

Cuba has been like a battered-wife this year :-(

Some places have all the (worst) luck.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

We need to keep an eye on Bouy 42057 as the centre will pass close to this.

Right now... 56 Knts Gusting to 68 Knts, 993mb falling at -10.4mb hour

 

[Jim Leonard]

Paloma is officially a hurricane at 00Z. A well defined eye is showing up on the latest imagery.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

CAT2 now in the "9" Advisory from the NHC

As an aside? where are the mods to change the title of this thread PLEASE ??

 

[MClarkson]

Looking pretty good on IR sat with a small yet well defined eye, cold tops, and good outflow. Cat 3 soon. Looks like its about to 'miss' Grand Cayman to the east... dunno about little Cayman yet.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Paloma is now a category 3 with 115mph winds and the pressure has dropped to 962mb (vortex data message at ~23Z stated pressure of 964mb). Paloma should continue to strengthen until shear increases significantly, starting tomorrow.

Paloma looks quite impressive on IR satellite right now and I would not be surprised if it is slightly stronger than the current advisory states.

 

[Paul Austin]

As of 5am advisory, Paloma now a Cat 4 with max sustained winds of 135mph and minimum central pressure of 945mb.

Looks beautiful on sat images. Unfortunately for Cuba, some the models bring Paloma over the Island and turn it back toward the west or wsw, increasing its potential for time spent over land. Rainfall totals, to say nothing of the wind and surge damage, could become a big problem. There seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty with the track out past a few days.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

A wether station is reporting live from Little Cayman

http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html

97 gusting to 108mph right now @11:30z 959Mb falling at 15mb /hour

 

[Stuart Robinson]

It seems that the weather station was actually in the Western EsyWall for a while - 2 gusts of 112 mph reported @12:30z with a wind trending from the North - I did not see what the pressure bottomed out at.