A **NOW** Question

[Darren Addy]

I don't want to break the rules of the forecast/now threads, so I'm posting this question here (hoping someone will see it, that isn't glued to the forecast/now threads).

In their Mesoscale Discussion, the SPC says "isolated to widely scattered storms" and "isolated supercells likely", while this poster says:

Well Cu field is stretched all along the diffuse dryline from SW Kansas through the panhandles all the way to Abiliene/Lubbock. There's no substantial surface moisture convergence or dryline bulge...which leads me to believe the synoptic scale vertical ascent is the reason for the broad cu field. I have been pessimistic the entire time and this leads me to believe the forcing is just too strong today. Enough moisture and strong shear usually trends toward quasi-linear storm mode, but obviously we won't know until free convection occurs. I'll be nowcasting, instead.

Tim Marshall seems to split the difference, seeing rotating storms early and deevolving into squall line later.

TARGET: WICHITA FALLS, TX TIME OF DEPARTURE: NOON. A stormy day ahead but there are problems with this system. Still figure it is worth the two hour drive to get into position to see some storms. PROS- Strato-cu finally arrived at 14z here, yeah. Sharp jet max progged to head into the area later today and I will play north of the main axis. Wind profiles look great for rotating storms. CONS- Lack of adequate surface moisture (40-50 dews yuck), lots of cirrus that will keep temps down, overpowering dynamics later that will end up making a squall line out of this mess. TM

Time will tell, but I was wondering (for my own continuing education) if anyone cared to comment on the variety of "reads" (or are they really that different)?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm not really sure that I completely understand (or am qualified to answer) your question - but today looks to begin with storms that should be able to maintain isolation, and then increase in coverage and work into linear modes. Both Adam and Tim note that initially weak moisture return may put the hurt on surface-based convection. Later, as the LLJ becomes stronger and pulls air from the gulf more than continental sources, the storms should become more plentiful. The wind profiles would be terrific if the storms were juiced enough to root at the surface. But we're dealing with a particularly dynamic system here, so really - in the end - I think it's anybody's guess. In my experience, days with overblown dynamics can either be a treat, or a mess (almost seems like they're a mess more often than anything). There will probably be some isolated storms at least to start (hopefully starting soon here), but then squall out later.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

By the way - also a factor in isolation vs. linear or quasi-linear today would be the cap, which neither Adam or Tim referenced in their comments --- though I'm sure Tim Marshall is probably thinking about right now as he is sitting in Wichita Falls (or Childress, or wherever he ended up) waiting for something to happen.

 

[Tony Perkins]

Speaking of, today's Now thread looks more like an IRC chat log or an IM session than our usual threads... lots of back and forth one liners. Somewhat difficult to wade through.

 

[rdale]

I was amazed - Friday's NOW was clearly the worst met thread StormTrack has ever experienced... It might be a good idea to set up a chatroom for the oneliners and leave that forum for meteorological content.

 

[Terrence Cook]

Why does the NOW for TX OK KS has 20 PAGES!
There are several "one-liners"... that have multiple posts about nothing! Not worth reading through to find decent info.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Guys, I think we've deduced that there are "many one-liners" when Tony first mentioned it, lol <--- One-liner

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I don't mean to add more of the same bashing in this thread, but I was amazed too. I don't know what can be done to regulate it because none of the posts broke any rules that I know of, but it really was more of a chat. I missed the event due to work, so I hoped to read the NOW thread to get an idea what I missed as I would normally do. However, I gave up after about 5 pages after seeing it was twenty pages long and obviously wasn't going to tell me anything.

I again, have no idea what could be done to make the rules any tighter, if anything. It just seemed like everything that was said was similar to the reasoning behind not posting NWS products... it was all subject matter that anyone sitting at their computer could already see. I don't really think a play by play of every cell on the radar is necessary. At least not unless it's something crazy, or crucial to the day's set up.

Anyway, it seems I always find my way into the complaint threads so I figured I would add my two cents again as I was less than pleased when reading the thread, and saw others were as well.

 

[Shane Hale]

Alot of that took place from around 4pm on into the 11pm time frame so yes alot of threads were posted about different ideas about what was taking place. I looked for a chat area and could not find one.

(4) Chase Forecasts forum. In the Chase Forecasts forum, we allow two types of messages, as follows.
* FCST is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that has not occurred yet, from now up to 7 days in the future
* NOW is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that is occurring right now.

Is that not was we were doing?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Holy moly.

I just deleted about 7 pages worth a posts the 2/23 NOW thread. This was the first event of the season, so it is partially understandable. But, the number of one-liners and marginally-frivolous posts was very surprising. I made a reminder in the current 2/24 NOW thread, but I will include it here for those who are not following the 2/24 thread:

(1) Purpose of Chase Forecasts and Chase Reports forums. These forums are intended to diffuse real-time information on weather events (thunderstorm or significant precip, e.g. snow) that are about to happen, are in progress, or have happened within the last 48 hours. If a weather event has occurred less than 48 hours ago, you can discuss it only in the Chase Forecasts or Chase Reports forum (unless it is primarily a non-precipitation event, in which case it may be posted in Weather & Chasing). Once 48 hours has passed, this restriction is waived, but we encourage using the available threads.
------

* NOW is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that is occurring right now.

---

(3) Prohibited content. Users may NOT post the following:
* Weather bulletins and forecast images, except as brief excerpts, in moderation, and with an explanation of their meteorological relevance;
* Links without an explanation of their meteorological relevance;
* Noise: posts containing only exclamations, salutations, witticisms, or personal anecdote (e.g. "I sure hope we get a storm. Bye!");
* Content containing no information relevant to the topic.

--> SPECIAL RULES: MANDATORY READING

NOW threads should only be used to address ONGOING (or developing, dissipating, etc) activity. In addition, this is not a chat room, so brief comments and short 1-liners are strongly discouraged.

Chances are, anyone following this thread is also well-aware of the warnings and watches in place, so there is no reason to make a post just to say that a new warning or watch is in effect. Posting excerpts from SPC/NWS products is acceptable ONLY if you include original comments (i.e. your own thoughts). We have designed the rules for this forum such that it remains an informational and helpful venue for weather and chasing information.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Alot of that took place from around 4pm on into the 11pm time frame so yes alot of threads were posted about different ideas about what was taking place. I looked for a chat area and could not find one.

(4) Chase Forecasts forum. In the Chase Forecasts forum, we allow two types of messages, as follows.
* FCST is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that has not occurred yet, from now up to 7 days in the future
* NOW is for discussing forecast aspects of severe weather that is occurring right now.

Is that not was we were doing?

A LOT of the posts yesterday were not discussions. They were "Big tower going up in Texas" or "New Tornado warning for ** county". That's not really informative, since everyone is probably aware of that (or will be within a minute or two) if they are following that thread.

As far as I know, the chat is still an option --> http://www.stormtrack.org/chat/

Yesterday was the first significant chase event, and many of the mods were in the field (unable to monitor). I'm busy today as well, but I hope we'll have less of a problem than yesterday.

 

[Shane Hale]

Cool deal...I have that bookmarked.... answers to complaints are much better to just complaints.