9/20/04 FCST: Plains

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_250_156m.gif

Rather interesting early fall setup for late next weekend into Monday-Tuesday. If this slows at all the above date will of course be no good. This is for the first day of the 'event', whenever it happens(quite possibly this will be Monday as the models love to be too fast). Second day likely be one big line along the coldfront. GFS wanting to put a fairly deep sfc low along the Canadian border and an even deeper on in nw KS under the nose of the jet. Lovely shear profile if that happens in sw NE and areas n-s.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_dewp.gif

Moisture return and capping could be a real concern. But it is 156 hours out, so we'll see.

System is going to hell...lol. I changed the date to Monday accordingly.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Yeah this system looks to be screwed. It's coming out highly positive tilt and it has a lovely trof over the gulf killing any return flow. It's pretty toast to me at this point.

 

[David Draun]

I would not dismiss this system yet. A pretty good burst of heat and humidity should come out ahead of it. For example, this is a little far east but Chicago could reach near 90 on Wednesday. There has got to be something coming out of that air mass.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Yeah the problem is the models insist on a trof developing over the gulf and essentially blocking off the good return flow ahead of the system. And not only that but the system keeps wanting to come out very positive tilt with a strong cold front(boooooooo). I'm still waiting to see if this little gulf trof develops like eta, gfs, and ecmwf all say it will. I vote no.....lol.

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

SPC seems to have some renewed hope for you Mike.

Tim