• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

2012-06-17 FCST: ND/SD/NE

Joined
May 1, 2004
Messages
3,417
Location
Springfield, IL
With the forecast arrival of some potent midlevel flow and troughing in the northern plains this coming week, it looks like we may have a shot at a few chases. Our first chance might be Sunday with a "day before the day" type event. The GFS has been consistently showing some 30-50 knot midlevel flow nosing in the Dakotas along with sufficient moisture return. The NAM has picked up on this now and is showing a small surface low on the SD/ND border. If that materializes, the moisture convergence and enhanced lift should compliment the modest upper level dynamics, and we should see a few storms off the nose of that surface low and maybe where the midlevel flow bisects the trailing dryline. Cap looks to be wide open by 0z Monday with both models initiating convection. Deep layer shear at 30-50 knots and sufficient mid 60's dews for moderate instability should support supercells, and with a nice veering wind profile, and a strengthening low level jet a few tornadoes look more than possible. Given what looks to be isolated storm coverage, I wouldn't expect SPC to go very high on the probabilities and we shouldn't see anything along the lines of what we had two years on that date, but it could be a great chase day in the Dakotas with some isolated photogenic supercells, maybe a tornado, and a great start to what looks to be an active chase week.
 
Per latest NAM. . .

Eastern SD looks quite nice where speed and turning are concerned in regards to shear. Relatively good sized hodographs.

Big concern is capping. Looks to be in breakable range if you look at 700s.

NAM also has the dewpoints slacking off pretty bad further east towards MN border... resulting in narrow corridor of good CAPE. Though I'm a bit skeptical on this development.
 
Good call on this a few days out, guys... I hadn't really looked at it too much.

My main concern is moisture for today. You can see as of about 15Z that there are lower to mid-60s Tds moving north, but upper level moisture is still a concern. Could still be some nifty storms, however, especially if the mid-level forecasted moisture returns as abundantly as the 12Z NAM is showing... otherwise I'd imagine a bust day may end up partially due to scoured moisture in the mid-levels. Unfortunately I am grounded due to Father's Day today... so best of luck to you guys going out there!
 
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