Skip Talbot
EF5
With the forecast arrival of some potent midlevel flow and troughing in the northern plains this coming week, it looks like we may have a shot at a few chases. Our first chance might be Sunday with a "day before the day" type event. The GFS has been consistently showing some 30-50 knot midlevel flow nosing in the Dakotas along with sufficient moisture return. The NAM has picked up on this now and is showing a small surface low on the SD/ND border. If that materializes, the moisture convergence and enhanced lift should compliment the modest upper level dynamics, and we should see a few storms off the nose of that surface low and maybe where the midlevel flow bisects the trailing dryline. Cap looks to be wide open by 0z Monday with both models initiating convection. Deep layer shear at 30-50 knots and sufficient mid 60's dews for moderate instability should support supercells, and with a nice veering wind profile, and a strengthening low level jet a few tornadoes look more than possible. Given what looks to be isolated storm coverage, I wouldn't expect SPC to go very high on the probabilities and we shouldn't see anything along the lines of what we had two years on that date, but it could be a great chase day in the Dakotas with some isolated photogenic supercells, maybe a tornado, and a great start to what looks to be an active chase week.
