9/19/05 NOW: MI/IN/IL

[Jason Hetzel]

If you are looking for pretty good quality satellite imagery then I highly recommend this site. Check it out and see if it suits your needs.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.1kmvis.html

 

[nickgrillo]

As for MI, you can very much make out the cold front on both SAT/GRR radar - With some precip popping up along it from about Osceola down back into Lake MI.

Also, just ahead of the front, precip has just formed in Cass county with a 35dbz return. Given the fact there is moderate instability in that region, I could see it developing further...

EDIT: Kaboom! Cass county... Now, let's see if the updrafts get blown apart (considering the 2000J/KG SBCAPE, it should last for awhile).

 

[Jason Hetzel]

Line of thunderstorms now developing quickly over southwest lower Michigan with rapid intensification taking place. Cass county cell could become our first severe warned cell for lower Michigan. New cell just northeast of Cass county cell also developing. Radar shows 35000 foot cloud tops already. Lets hope this trend continues. I wouldnt be surprised now to see SPC issue a blue box for the area of lower Michigan.

CLICK HERE FOR RADAR LINK (Weather Underground)

 

[Angie K Holliday]

that tornado warning in west central il was not too far from here. in my county, we had a severe thunderstorm with large hail, a period of very strong wind and quite a bit of rain.

i brought in some of the hail, but i didn't get it right away, so it did melt some... and then the freezer reduced its size some as well. the largest hailstone i found was 1.5 inches.

also had some gorgeous skies after the storms passed, not sure how to post pictures here though.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Wow, I have never seen so many meso-rotations in the storm in MO. There are about 8, and on is pretty large. They will probably trip the TVS algorithm shortly. Looks to me like the storms in MI aren't going to make it, as nick said. Although I am not sure what having to much shear does to a storm. Woah, I see a rotation-segment in IL, that has a diameter of 7.8 nm!

 

[Jason Hetzel]

Although I am not sure what having to much shear does to a storm.




When the upper level winds become so strong as was the case in today's setup, then what happens is when the anvils and main updrafts start to form once they reach their mature stage they lose it quickly after. This is because the upper level winds are so strong that the jet stream tears apart the storm and puts the storm through a phase called "shearing out" meaning again cutting off the main updraft and splitting it. This is a common thing when the jet stream is strong as it was today. Not the first time it has happened here but it does happen and it prevents further development at times also.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Cold front starting to light up in central MI...

SPC analysis shows a nice band of moisture convergence along the front, as well as building instability. SBCAPE is hanging around 1500J/KG across the region (an 8C/KM mid level lapse rates), with 70-80KNTS of 0-6KM shear (the highest values I have every seen). In addition, a strong area of 300MB divergence is moving overhead, which may enhance lift. At 500MB, a +70KNT jet is poking into the region, with a very moist southwesterly inflow at 850MB.

Things could get interesting...

 

[rdale]

I think it's just too late to get anything out of this line more than a quick burst of rain and a nice light show (getting the latter here now.) Of course I'm a bit grumpy after my 200-mile bustchase to Ft Wayne and back, only to see my first bolts from my front porch!

My big question for post analysis - why did the storms form that line down south? Why was it all quiet everywhere else? Why the action now? That'll be for a new thread... tomorrow...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
I think it's just too late to get anything out of this line more than a quick burst of rain and a nice light show (getting the latter here now.) Of course I'm a bit grumpy after my 200-mile bustchase to Ft Wayne and back, only to see my first bolts from my front porch!

My big question for post analysis - why did the storms form that line down south? Why was it all quiet everywhere else? Why the action now? That'll be for a new thread... tomorrow...

Yeah, I probably jumped the gun too soon on that one. I seen storms along the cold front and got excited, LOL. Oh well, maybe next spring, or summer...

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by rdewey

Yeah, I probably jumped the gun too soon on that one. I seen storms along the cold front and got excited, LOL. Oh well, maybe next spring, or summer...

What, you don't think you could get a storm later this fall?

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Andrew Khan)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

Yeah, I probably jumped the gun too soon on that one. I seen storms along the cold front and got excited, LOL. Oh well, maybe next spring, or summer...

What, you don't think you could get a storm later this fall?[/b]

I don't think he implied that... I'd imagine he was just noting that there will be other good systems by next Spring or Summer, as usual.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by nickgrillo+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(nickgrillo)</div>

Originally posted by Andrew Khan@
<!--QuoteBegin-rdewey

Yeah, I probably jumped the gun too soon on that one. I seen storms along the cold front and got excited, LOL. Oh well, maybe next spring, or summer...

What, you don't think you could get a storm later this fall?

I don't think he implied that... I'd imagine he was just noting that there will be other good systems by next Spring or Summer, as usual.[/b]

I was attempting to be funny, LOL... What I meant is that this year in MI has seemed rather inactive so far (well, I had a one or two good days), so I was just expecting the trend to continue until next year :lol:

Joking aside, I would expect at least one dynamic event prior to Winter (i.e. strongly forced events), but that's just based on climatology.

Heck, look at the NAM's 60-84HR forecast - looks like a nice zonal flow setup with moisture pooling to the south... Prime area for MCS development.