9/19/05 NOW: MI/IN/IL

SPC just issued a blue box...

Inhibitation is slowly weakening invof the warm front located across western IN - with a very moist and unstable boundary layer in place. Strong southwesterly SFC winds and widespread insolation has aided to the development of strong SFC-based instability ranging between 2000-3000J/KG along the IN/IL border - with 1000J/KG creeping into southwest MI. Low-level shear is substantially stronger near the warm front (350-500M2/S2 0-1KM SRH) along with 50KNT-60KNT deep-layer shear which could enhance the threat for a couple isolated tornadoes / supercells in northeast IL/northwest IN within the next few hours.
 
Huge storms coming across the IL area as of 10-20 minutes ago. This storm is giving off an impressive outflow boundary into central IL, and I would assume, storms will be developing along this. I think it's safe to assume that western and central IL, are getting hail at this time. There is also a meso rotation, about 3.5 NM in size, in the lower severe warned cell. Tornado Warning JUST issued for IL.
 
There are now four meso rings out for the severe warned cell, greatest rotation still being 3.8 nm in diameter. Rotation is very obvious in the southern part of this cell, and there are about 4 Hail reports, all being from Trained Spottersm greatest hail size being, 1.00 in.
 
I'm having serious doubts about convective chances here in MI. Unless some towers blow up from the Cu field over SE WI, I would have to say our chances are rather slim.

SPC does show some decent MLCAPE advecting into the region with significant shear, and there is a band of SFC moisture convergence developing across SE WI, and this is on the west side of the 700MB thermal axis... So all hope isn't lost just yet.
 
Originally posted by rdewey
I'm having serious doubts about convective chances here in MI. Unless some towers blow up from the Cu field over SE WI, I would have to say our chances are rather slim.

SPC does show some decent MLCAPE advecting into the region with significant shear, and there is a band of SFC moisture convergence developing across SE WI, and this is on the west side of the 700MB thermal axis... So all hope isn't lost just yet.

I'll tend to agree with most of your thoughts there...

I still think MI could get a few storms to pop later this evening (the RUC shows some precip breaking out by 0Z)... SPC just released an MD on MI discussing potential later: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2235.html
 
I think Nick Grillo hit his forecast pretty good. The latest SPC MD threatens a WW for all of Lower Michigan. Looks like the storms are over for Chicago though. The storms to the south will most likely inhibit development here. It probably would have been great too. It's clear, warm, and humid here. However the front is still to the west. Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE is still near 3000 J/kg. There is a line of Cu along the coldfront, as the visible satellite imagery displays
 
The warm front is now pressing into southwest MI - with the cold front pushing across the lake...

It's already 6 PM, and SFC-based instability is still only about 1000-2000J/KG across most of southwest/southcentral Michigan... However, MUCAPE is a solid >2500J/KG across that area - with Td's ranging from 62-70F invof the warm front. There is some good SFC moisture convergance developing along the MI/IN border. It could always pull the 5/6/04 type thing... With convection exploding all over the MI/IN border region shortly afterdark, so I wouldn't let my guard down with this type of a setup.

I really wish we'd see some stronger instability advecting in...

I know this sounds ridiculous... But, if nothing happens closer to here - and the convection across IN remains strong (RUC/NAM brings in strong instability across ne IN/nw OH after 0Z) then I'll shoot down I-75 to shoot some lightning :lol:
 
TVS just tripped in the cell in IL. I think there is still a threat for supercells across the MI region, mainly the west side, however. I think that there could also be an isolated tornado or two in western MI, given the shear, helicity, LCL values. Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE in MI of 3000 J/KG.
 
The cold front is clearly visible on the VIS imagery across SE WI. It's pretty much a solid band of Cu, which has been getting somewhat broader/more convective looking. I doubt much initiation will occur over Lake MI, where SBCAPES drop off significantly, but the western side of MI is prime. Even with initiation, though... My main concern is that shear (70KNTS of it in the 0-6KM layer) will simply be too strong.
 
Two tornado warnings have just been issued for the cell in NE IL. Rotation is still very strong in this cell, and has a meso on it. Have there been any confirmed touch downs today? Rdewey, where do you get the VIS images?
 
He is using the link you just posted. I recently recieved a PM from him. Thank you. The cell in IL, look to begin breaking away from the cell entering IN.
 
There is one warning still in IL, and one was just issued for MO. There WAS a confirmed touch down in extreme west central IL, damaging one structure.
 
As for MI, you can very much make out the cold front on both SAT/GRR radar - With some precip popping up along it from about Osceola down back into Lake MI.

Also, just ahead of the front, precip has just formed in Cass county with a 35dbz return. Given the fact there is moderate instability in that region, I could see it developing further...

EDIT: Kaboom! Cass county... Now, let's see if the updrafts get blown apart (considering the 2000J/KG SBCAPE, it should last for awhile).
 
Line of thunderstorms now developing quickly over southwest lower Michigan with rapid intensification taking place. Cass county cell could become our first severe warned cell for lower Michigan. New cell just northeast of Cass county cell also developing. Radar shows 35000 foot cloud tops already. Lets hope this trend continues. I wouldnt be surprised now to see SPC issue a blue box for the area of lower Michigan.

CLICK HERE FOR RADAR LINK (Weather Underground)
 
that tornado warning in west central il was not too far from here. in my county, we had a severe thunderstorm with large hail, a period of very strong wind and quite a bit of rain.

i brought in some of the hail, but i didn't get it right away, so it did melt some... and then the freezer reduced its size some as well. the largest hailstone i found was 1.5 inches.

also had some gorgeous skies after the storms passed, not sure how to post pictures here though.
 
Wow, I have never seen so many meso-rotations in the storm in MO. There are about 8, and on is pretty large. They will probably trip the TVS algorithm shortly. Looks to me like the storms in MI aren't going to make it, as nick said. Although I am not sure what having to much shear does to a storm. Woah, I see a rotation-segment in IL, that has a diameter of 7.8 nm!
 
Although I am not sure what having to much shear does to a storm.




When the upper level winds become so strong as was the case in today's setup, then what happens is when the anvils and main updrafts start to form once they reach their mature stage they lose it quickly after. This is because the upper level winds are so strong that the jet stream tears apart the storm and puts the storm through a phase called "shearing out" meaning again cutting off the main updraft and splitting it. This is a common thing when the jet stream is strong as it was today. Not the first time it has happened here but it does happen and it prevents further development at times also.
 
Cold front starting to light up in central MI...

SPC analysis shows a nice band of moisture convergence along the front, as well as building instability. SBCAPE is hanging around 1500J/KG across the region (an 8C/KM mid level lapse rates), with 70-80KNTS of 0-6KM shear (the highest values I have every seen). In addition, a strong area of 300MB divergence is moving overhead, which may enhance lift. At 500MB, a +70KNT jet is poking into the region, with a very moist southwesterly inflow at 850MB.

Things could get interesting...
 
I think it's just too late to get anything out of this line more than a quick burst of rain and a nice light show (getting the latter here now.) Of course I'm a bit grumpy after my 200-mile bustchase to Ft Wayne and back, only to see my first bolts from my front porch!

My big question for post analysis - why did the storms form that line down south? Why was it all quiet everywhere else? Why the action now? That'll be for a new thread... tomorrow...
 
Originally posted by rdale
I think it's just too late to get anything out of this line more than a quick burst of rain and a nice light show (getting the latter here now.) Of course I'm a bit grumpy after my 200-mile bustchase to Ft Wayne and back, only to see my first bolts from my front porch!

My big question for post analysis - why did the storms form that line down south? Why was it all quiet everywhere else? Why the action now? That'll be for a new thread... tomorrow...

Yeah, I probably jumped the gun too soon on that one. I seen storms along the cold front and got excited, LOL. Oh well, maybe next spring, or summer...
 
Originally posted by rdewey

Yeah, I probably jumped the gun too soon on that one. I seen storms along the cold front and got excited, LOL. Oh well, maybe next spring, or summer...

What, you don't think you could get a storm later this fall?
 
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