Jeff Snyder
EF5
There appears to be a pretty good chance of significant severe tomorrow across portions of northern TX and Oklahoma as an active southern stream noses into the area. The synoptic cold front should press into at least central OK by afternoon, though it may be aided by outflow from post-frontal convection. It appears right now that areas on the immediate "cool" side of the front / OFB in the TX panhandle and into western OK may warm enough to support strong instability by afternoon. Easterly/southeasterly surface flow north of the boundary underlying 35-50kt southwesterly 500mb flow and 50-90kt WSW 250mb flow should yield 45-55kt 0-6km deep-layer shear, while strong low-level veering will result in signficant low-level shear. Depending upon the degree of moisture pooling along the boundary (NAM shows low 70s between Red River and I40 in OK), low LCLs may characterize the near-boundary environment as well. CAPE progs from the 12z NAM aren't extreme, but 2000-3000 CAPE appears likely in areas that see insolation.
Right now, it appears to me that the key will for the coverage and intensity of tomorrow's convection in the southern plains will be the location and motion of the cold front / OFB. Without a strong push forward, forcing along the front shouldn't be too terribly strong, especially in the absense of strong 850-700mb flow (resulting in only weak isentropic lift above the frontal boundary). With easterly storm motions progged by the 12z NAM, there appears the definite possibility of a couple of significant supercells latching onto the boundary and producing tornadoes.
Right now, it appears to me that the key will for the coverage and intensity of tomorrow's convection in the southern plains will be the location and motion of the cold front / OFB. Without a strong push forward, forcing along the front shouldn't be too terribly strong, especially in the absense of strong 850-700mb flow (resulting in only weak isentropic lift above the frontal boundary). With easterly storm motions progged by the 12z NAM, there appears the definite possibility of a couple of significant supercells latching onto the boundary and producing tornadoes.