9/13/05: FCST: KS/MO

[PaulChambers]

Looking at the models for Tuesday, the area of Kansas City, MO southwest to Arkansas City, KS seems to look promising. High CAPE (3500-4000), Lifted Index 4.5 to 5 cm, and some windshear. Is there something here that I am missing, or IS this a good target area?

 

[Adam Atkins]

Add NW OK

A target area for NW OK should be added for cold front/ pseudo-dryline intersection...surface winds backed slightly in more of an upslope regime...severe squall line is possible all along the cold front after initial discrete cells...short lived.

 

[PaulChambers]

The models now seem to show the area will be farther east, almost intirely in MO. Bad chasing area due to hills, etc.

 

[nickgrillo]

Re: Add NW OK

Originally posted by Adam Atkins
A target area for NW OK should be added for cold front/ pseudo-dryline intersection...surface winds backed slightly in more of an upslope regime...severe squall line is possible all along the cold front after initial discrete cells...short lived.

Yeah, I really like nc OK/sc KS for tomorrow...

21Z forecast soundings for PNC shows a parcel of 87F/68F, which yields 3698J/KG of CAPE. With the steep lapse rates and very strong speed shear that we have available (80kts at 250mb!) then I would have to say tomorrow has a very good chance for widespread damaging winds from northern OK into eastern KS. The 21Z sounding from PNC is screaming wind potential... And I would have to bet the SPC would at least place the area under a 25% for wind. Rather lack of directional shear will prevent more supercell potential, but I wouldn't be surprised if we could get a couple sups to pop along the cold front... But, I think this will be a wind event more then anything.

 

[Glen Romine]

Took a lazy look after seeing the day 1 outlook this morning. Not sure I see the 5% torn risk given the forecast location of the surface deformation across KS. Looks like winds are veered just ahead of the boundary except along the western edge of the deformation zone, which sets up pretty far west where instability is limited. ETA more optimistic than the RUC in this regard, offering perhaps a small window of opportunity up in the Woodward area, but I don't completely buy that either. I'd expect the 1630 outlook to trim the chances, but as I said, I didn't look very closely, so maybe I'm not seeing what they are.

Glen

 

[Justin Walker]

Forecast looks pretty grim for any organized storms in the SP's today. The directional shear is very small, hardly any turning. Surface winds veered to crap ahead of front. 850hPa are veered. I don't see why, as Glen mentioned, SPC keep the 5% torn risk in, they know better than me. I would guess by the 20z outlook, it will be down to 2%. That may be going out on a limb too.

 

[nickgrillo]

Mesoanaly shows a good 4000J/KG of sbCAPE across nc OK south of the cold front... With all of this speed shear available, I'm not at all surprised by their 25% wind risk... As if you look above, I was thinking they were gonna dot that with the 0600 SWODY1 :lol: ... Rather surprised by their choice of the 5% tornado, thou... While effective bulk shear would support a few supercells, the majority of this should be bowing segments with +60KT winds the main threat, and given the extreme instability added in, large hail will be a pretty big threat too. Low-level flow is close to nothing (and of course the same goes for the SRH) and I really can't see more then a brief weak tornado out of it all (pretty much needing of a 2% risk).

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The two areas I am keeping a close eye on are the Wichita area and further North near the Salina to Emporia area. The only tornado potential I can see in the Wichita area is if a storm stays isolated long enough to put down a brief tornado or the tail end of a cluster or line evolves somewhere between Wichita and the OK border. I like the area NW of Emporia because of the backing surface winds and what appears to be a mesolow/deformation along the front. I just really don't like the tornado potential from Wichita-South because of the shear profile being parallel to the front. Time will tell. For now, I am content monitoring the situation from my living room in Wichita.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I was planning to head to Northern Oklahoma today, but I think I'm canceling my trip because A)Tommorow looks pretty darn impressive and B)Today isnt looking as impressive as it has as far as discrete supercell chances go. The whole setup today screams MCS or Squall Line at me, but as long as they lay down an OFB tommorow, I'll be happy.

Latest SPC Mesoanalysis is showing 3500 cape in NNE Oklahoma and SW Winds (yuck). Speed shear is decent across my former target area, but nothing to get me too excited about, especially considering my GPS, Weather Radio, CB are out of commision as well as my spare tire. Looks like I'm gonna lock and load for tommorow and just sit this one out.