8/28/2004 FCST: Gaston (Atlantic)

[B Ozanne]

The problem is that it never should have been downgraded. Winds were TS strength, it was warm cored, it was always a tropical storm.

 

[rdale]

How was that a problem? HPC specializes in flooding rain, so it's possible they were the better lead agency anyways... The end result is that the public knew it was going to get wet, regardless of HPC or TPC generating the NWS forecasts.

- Rob

 

[B Ozanne]

Rest assured, I could care less what the NHC does. My personal opinion was that it should have never been downgraded. The general public has a very poor understanding of meteorology. They understand that a tropical storm is more serious than a depression. Considering it was a tropical storm the entire time, the NWS would have done a better job protecting life and property by accurately representing this storm.

From the TPC website:

The TPC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.

I'm sure the local WSFO's did a fantastic job along with the HPC. But according to their mission statement the NHC failed. They did not properly analyze the tropical weather. This was not a forecast problem, it was an analysis failure. The data was all there and they didn't use it properly.

 

[B Ozanne]

Rest assured, I could care less what the TPC does. My personal opinion was that it should have never been downgraded. The general public has a very poor understanding of meteorology. They understand that a tropical storm is more serious than a depression. Considering it was a tropical storm the entire time, the NWS would have done a better job protecting life and property by accurately representing this storm.

From the TPC website:

The TPC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.

I'm sure the local WSFO's did a fantastic job along with the HPC. But according to their mission statement the TPC failed. They did not properly analyze the tropical weather. This was not a forecast problem, it was an analysis failure. The data was all there and they didn't use it properly.