8/27/2004 FCST: Great Lakes

[rdale]

"It's hard to believe the SPC is not confident for this kind of situation. "

Because the models don't generate any convection with the fropa, and it's still 3 days out... I'm not confident either - and note that they do have us in the 5% area so I wouldn't have expected much more than that at this timeframe. I don't think they're nuts - just realizing the number of times the model has been horrible in convective forecasts at 36+ hrs for the Great Lakes this summer.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

is it possible the storms from thursday race east overnight and cause a damaging wind event in the wee hours of friday morning over lower michigan. Rdale, your an expert met., what's your opinion?

 

[rdale]

There's no way of forecasting 1) MCS initiation point 24 hours away 2) path and speed of that MCS that you don't know where will begin and 3) extent of the damaging wind zone 36 hours away for a MCS that forms in an unknown location at an unknown time and moves at an unknown speed and direction. All you can look at is the overall setup...

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

APX is hinting that there could be a squall line that races into northern lower thurs night/friday morning. How far south this would be, if it does indeed occur would be pretty important, i could see an outflow boundry somewhere across the state which could fire severe storms in the afternoon.

IT LOOKS LIKE A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WI/MN...PROPAGATING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

well, we went from no convection with the front to what looks like too much. The forecast is for clouds during the morning, limiting heating and thus the severe threat in the afternoon. Timing looks pretty good and if there are less clouds then what is forecasted, it could get interesting tomorrow afternoon.

Anymore thoughts on tomorrow would be great.

 

[rdale]

Not much has changed - if we heat up it could get nasty, if we stay clouded in the lack of instability and weak lapse rates mean nothing good will come...

 

[nickgrillo]

Forbes calls for tornadoes tomorrow in the area?

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
Forbes calls for tornadoes tomorrow in the area?

nick, please explain, i didn't see that and i'm VERY interested.

 

[nickgrillo]

My friend told me Forbes said tornadoes are possible in MI tomorrow. Don't know any more details, nor do I really know how this is possible - but he said it. He'll probley say it again at 9:30.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

well, storms rolled across the state this morning and i thought that was it for severe chances this afternoon, figuring clouds would be the rule for the day. Wow was i surprised to see most of the state in mostly sunny skies and already near 80 at 10am. This should really help our chances for the afternoon, but the SPC still says too much uncertainty for a slight risk.

 

[rdale]

Dew's of 77 in several spots across Mid-Michigan with plenty of sunshine yet to come (temps in the lower-80's.) Eta has a better handle on (lack of) morning convection and clouds, resulting in CAPE > 3000 EHI > 3 across the area by 21Z. Looking good from my vantage point...

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

i hope your right rdale, Apx as usual is downplaying convection and severe weather chances:

DEVELOPMENT WHICH OCCURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED OR
REACH SEVERE LEVELS

i find that a little odd with capes at or above 3000. Its a muggy one in bad axe right now, point 79 temp 82 H.I of 91

 

[rdale]

Gaylord handles northern Michigan where CAPE's are only progged to be around 1000.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

GRR update out, also isn't too high on chances of severe storms.

DTX has a chance of severe storms with 60mph winds in the new SWS.

 

[Ben Cotton]

To me, it seems like the primary area will be northern Missouri, with a secondary area in southern Michigan. Both areas are receving sunshine right now, and the air is quite damp. SRH, per 12Z RUC never gets too impressive, but might be enough to support some decent severe. The CAPE and SRH in MO look better, but it may not be enough without more dynamic help. My major concern is that the H5 trough might be too far to the west?


Ben